RadarScope
RadarScope
ACUS01 KWNS 050521 SWODY1 SPC AC 050519 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1219 AM CDT TUE JUN 05 2012 VALID 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER CNTRL AND SRN AL AND GA...FAR NRN FL...AND FAR SRN SC... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF CNTRL MT... ...SYNOPSIS... A BLOCKING PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE TUE WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS...AND TROUGH OVER THE NERN AND NWRN U.S. A RELATIVELY DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE IN A NEGATIVE-TILT FASHION ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND ACROSS MT AND WY LATE IN THE PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIST OVER E CNTRL MT DURING THE DAY...WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT SURGING INTO SWRN MT/WRN WY BY 00Z. TO THE E...A NWLY FLOW REGIME WILL PERSIST AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...FROM THE OH/TN VALLEYS TO THE CAROLINA AND GA COASTS. A WEAK W-E ORIENTED SURFACE BOUNDARY...AUGMENTED BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS...SHOULD GRADUALLY SINK SWD DURING THE DAY...AND WILL HELP TO FOCUS DAYTIME STORMS FROM MS INTO SC. ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...MODELS ARE CREATING AN UPPER LOW IN-SITU ACROSS NWRN TX WITH A LARGE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY OVER THE SAME AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOME MARGINAL SHEAR OVER SERN NM/SWRN TX. ...OVER CNTRL AND SRN AL AND GA...FAR NRN FL...AND FAR SRN SC... THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING TUE MORNING FROM TN INTO NRN AL...GA AND SC ALONG THE FRONT...AND SOME COULD BE STRONG. OUTFLOW FROM THESE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE S DURING THE DAY...WITH STRONG HEATING ACROSS SRN MS/AL/GA. THIS WILL FAVOR NEW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE BOUNDARIES...AND MODERATE NWLY FLOW ESPECIALLY OVER GA...SC AND NRN FL WILL BE MOST FAVORABLE FOR SEMI-ORGANIZED STORM CLUSTERS WITH DAMAGING WINDS. MARGINAL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE AREA-WIDE WITH DEEP VIGOROUS TOWERS. ...CNTRL MT... THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SWRN AND CNTRL MT BY AROUND 00Z...WITH STRONG FORCING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR PRODUCING STEEP LAPSE RATE PROFILES. THIS...COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE DEEP SHEAR...SHOULD FAVOR SOME HIGH BASED SUPERCELLS OR NEWD MOVING LINE SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND WIND. A RELATIVELY NARROW ZONE OF SEVERE IS EXPECTED DUE TO CAPPING CONCERNS FARTHER E. ACTIVITY SHOULD EVENTUALLY GET UNDERCUT BY THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT. ...CNTRL/NWRN TX... SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD MAINTAIN MID/UPPER 50S F DEWPOINTS INTO SWRN TX DESPITE HEATING AND MIXING. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...AND LOCALLY STRONG WINDS. THE NWLY FLOW AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE WEAK UPPER LOW JUXSTAPOSED ATOP SELY LOW LEVELS WILL RESULT IN HODOGRAPHS FAVORABLE FOR A FEW SLOW MOVING SUPERCELLS. SHEAR ELSEWHERE...FROM THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS TO CNTRL TX WILL BE LESS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE...BUT INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT MARGINALLY SEVERE PULSE OR MULTICELLS BY PEAK HEATING. ..JEWELL/LEITMAN.. 06/05/2012
ACUS02 KWNS 041645 SWODY2 SPC AC 041644 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1144 AM CDT MON JUN 04 2012 VALID 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL MT... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PORTIONS OF SRN GA/SERN AL/NRN FL... ...SYNOPSIS... AN OMEGA-BLOCKING PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY TWO PERIOD...FEATURING A HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT PLAINS WHICH WILL BE BRACKETED BY TROUGHS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND ERN THIRD OF THE NATION. WITHIN THIS BROADER-SCALE PATTERN...AN INTENSE VORTICITY MAXIMUM AND ASSOCIATED 60-70 KT MIDLEVEL JET STREAK INITIALLY OVER THE SIERRA NEVADAS INTO GREAT BASIN WILL PROGRESS NEWD INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS WITH A CORRIDOR OF 50-100 M/12-HR HEIGHT FALLS AT 500 MB FORECAST ALONG SYSTEM TRACK. ELSEWHERE...A SERIES OF LOW-AMPLITUDE PERTURBATIONS WILL EXIST ALONG CYCLONIC SIDE OF 40-50 KT MIDLEVEL JET CORE SETTLING SWD THROUGH THE TN VALLEY AND SERN STATES. AT THE SURFACE...LEE CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR TUESDAY OVER CNTRL MT IN RESPONSE TO LOWERING MIDLEVEL HEIGHTS/DCVA PRECEDING THE GREAT BASIN SYSTEM MENTIONED ABOVE. AT THE SAME TIME...A STRENGTHENING PACIFIC FRONT WILL ADVANCE EWD THROUGH THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...EVENTUALLY LINKING WITH THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT. THE SRN EXTENSION OF THE PACIFIC FRONT WILL MAKE STEADY SEWD PROGRESS INTO THE CNTRL ROCKIES AND LOWER CO VALLEY. FARTHER E...A COLD FRONT INITIALLY FROM THE LOWER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY WWD THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO SRN PLAINS WILL MOVE SWD/SWWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. ...NRN HIGH PLAINS... LOW-LEVEL MASS RESPONSE TO APPROACHING VORTICITY MAXIMUM --MANIFEST AS A 30-40 KT SSELY LLJ AND SURFACE LEE CYCLOGENESIS-- WILL MAINTAIN A MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT BENEATH STEEPENING MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATE PLUME PRECEDING UPPER SYSTEM. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT DEEPER PBL MIXING WILL RESULT IN A DECREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON OVER S-CNTRL MT...WITH THE STRONGEST DESTABILIZATION /I.E. MLCAPE OF 1500-2500 J PER KG/ FORECAST FROM THE WRN DAKOTAS/FAR ERN MT NWWD INTO N-CNTRL MT. MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS IS SUGGESTIVE THAT THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD FOR STORM INITIATION AND SUSTENANCE WILL BE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING WITHIN IMMEDIATE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT W/NW OF SURFACE LOW WHERE THE CAP WILL BE THE WEAKEST. HERE...THE WRN EXTENSION OF LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY AXIS WILL COINCIDE WITH MODERATELY STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORM MODES --INCLUDING SUPERCELLS-- WITH A RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. ...SERN U.S... CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION AND RESULTANT SEVERE THREAT WILL BE MODULATED TO SOME DEGREE BY ANTECEDENT TSTM ACTIVITY DURING THE DAY ONE PERIOD. STILL...IT APPEARS THAT DIURNALLY ENHANCED STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE FAVORED ALONG COLD FRONT AND PRE-EXISTING CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SAGGING SWD. THE MOST INTENSE STORMS MAY BE FOCUSED ACROSS PARTS OF GA INTO NRN FL WHERE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE ENHANCED BY A VORTICITY MAXIMUM PROGRESSING SEWD THROUGH THE SRN APPALACHIANS. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF A MOIST...MODERATELY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR /I.E. MLCAPE OF 1500-3000 J PER KG/...SETUP WILL FAVOR ORGANIZED STORM CLUSTERS WITH A RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. ...LOWER MS VALLEY INTO SRN PLAINS... SCATTERED TSTMS APPEAR LIKELY ALONG COLD FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITHIN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE BUT GENERALLY WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. WHILE ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE...WEAK SHEAR AND FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL PRECLUDE A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. ...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... ISOLATED-WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG LEE TROUGH WITHIN A STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT. MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CONTENT /AND RESULTANT INSTABILITY/ AND WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR WILL LIMIT UPDRAFT STRENGTH/LONGEVITY. STILL...A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A RISK FOR GUSTY WINDS AND SOME HAIL. ..MEAD.. 06/04/2012
ACUS03 KWNS 040720 SWODY3 SPC AC 040719 DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0219 AM CDT MON JUN 04 2012 VALID 061200Z - 071200Z ...SYNOPSIS... LITTLE CHANGE IS FORECAST THIS PERIOD IN THE OVERALL UPPER FLOW PATTERN...WITH A RIDGE PERSISTING OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. BETWEEN BOTH A WRN AND ERN U.S. RIDGE. AS MOST OF THE SHORT-WAVE ENERGY WITH THE WRN UPPER TROUGH IS SHUNTED NWD INTO WRN CANADA BY THE PERSISTENT RIDGE...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH HAD BEEN STEADILY PROGRESSING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT ATTEMPTS TO ENTER THE NRN PLAINS. ELSEWHERE...A WEAK W-E BAROCLINIC ZONE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ROUGHLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION...AGAIN FOCUSING DIURNALLY ENHANCED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ...NRN PLAINS REGION... UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING DEGREE OF CONVECTIVE/SEVERE POTENTIAL IN THE N CENTRAL U.S. THIS PERIOD...WITH THE REGION PROGGED REMAIN BENEATH THE PERSISTENT LARGE-SCALE RIDGE. THE NAM FORECASTS A FAIRLY PRONOUNCED SHORT-WAVE TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AREA THROUGH THE MEAN RIDGE -- ACCOMPANIED BY A DISTINCT PROGRESSION OF THE WRN U.S. FRONT INTO THE NRN PLAINS. SUCH AN EVOLUTION COULD YIELD AN ASSOCIATED SEVERE RISK DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING DESPITE BACKGROUND LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE. THE GFS HOWEVER IS MUCH WEAKER WITH ANY SHORT-WAVE ENERGY...AND THUS ANY EWD ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE FRONT IS SLOWER AND WEAKER -- AND WITH LESS FLOW ALOFT ATOP THE WARM SECTOR. GIVEN THESE DIFFERENCES...WILL INTRODUCE ONLY A 5%/SEE TEXT AREA ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS REGION -- WITH A RE-EVALUATION OF SEVERE POTENTIAL ACROSS THIS AREA IN LATER FORECASTS POSSIBLY RESULTING IN A RISK LEVEL UPGRADE. ...THE SOUTHEAST... SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE AGAIN FORECAST TO DIURNALLY INCREASE ALONG THE LINGERING SURFACE FRONT...FROM SRN GA/N FL WWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION AND INTO THE SRN PLAINS. WHILE THE NAM CONTINUES TO FORECAST MODERATE NWLY FLOW ALOFT EXTENDING SWD TO NEAR THE PORTION OF THE FRONTAL ZONE OVER S GA/N FL...THE GFS KEEPS THE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT N OF THE BOUNDARY. GIVEN THIS DIFFERENCE -- WHICH WOULD HAVE SOME BEARING ON DEGREE OF POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION/SEVERE THREAT...WILL OPT TO INCLUDE ONLY 5%/SEE TEXT AREA ATTM -- COVERING AN UNCERTAIN/LIMITED THREAT FOR WIND/MARGINAL HAIL. ..GOSS.. 06/04/2012
ACUS48 KWNS 040858 SWOD48 SPC AC 040857 DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0357 AM CDT MON JUN 04 2012 VALID 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD THIS RUN...WITH BOTH DEPICTING A SLOW EJECTION OF THE WRN U.S. TROUGH/LOW EWD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION DAYS 4-5 /THU. AND FRI. JUNE 7-8/ AND INTO/ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL CAN BE EXPECTED DAY 4 ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AS A WEAK SHORT-WAVE FEATURE MOVES THROUGH THE MEAN RIDGE...AND THEN DAY 5 OVER THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AS THE MAIN TROUGH BEGINS PROGRESSING ACROSS THE NWRN CONUS. HOWEVER...A MORE WIDESPREAD THREAT SHOULD EVOLVE BEGINNING DAY 6 /SAT. JUNE 9/...AS CONTINUED EWD PROGRESS OF THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION DRIVES A STRONG COLD FRONT INTO THE NRN PLAINS REGION. IT APPEARS ATTM THAT THIS THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE DAY 7 /SUN. JUNE 10/ -- OVER THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY...WITH SOME THREAT POSSIBLY EXTENDING SWWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHERE MODELS HINT AT SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE TRAILING PORTION OF THE FRONT. LATE IN THE PERIOD...THE GFS BECOMES A BIT FASTER WITH THE EWD MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM...AND THUS CONFIDENCE IS LIMITED DAY 8...PRECLUDING INTRODUCTION OF ANY THREAT AREA. HOWEVER...WILL INTRODUCE DAY 6 AND DAY 7 RISK AREAS -- FOCUSED OVER THE NRN PLAINS REGION DAY 6 AND EXTENDING EWD TOWARD THE UPPER MS VALLEY DAY 7. WITH A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS LIKELY TO BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND AMPLE SHEAR EXPECTED...FAIRLY WIDESPREAD POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS -- AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE OF TORNADOES -- WARRANTS INTRODUCTION OF THE THREAT AREAS THIS FORECAST. ..GOSS.. 06/04/2012
FXUS63 KDVN 050435 AFDDVN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL 1135 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUE EVE... AND LIKELY BEYOND AS GREAT LAKES SFC RIDGING DOMINATES. WINDS WILL BECOME E/SE AT GENERALLY 4-9 KTS. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012/ SYNOPSIS... 12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS A WEAK TROF FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BACK ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WAS ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. NOCTURNAL CONVECTION HAS PRODUCED 850MB DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TEENS ACROSS ILLINOIS. SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON SHOW CONVECTION CONTINUING WITH THE WEAK WAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH ILLINOIS. THE DAKOTAS WAVE WAS TRYING TO INITIATE SOME CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA. 18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAD A WEAK LOW NEAR KPPQ WITH AN INVERTED TROF RUNNING BACK INTO CENTRAL IOWA. A LAKE INDUCED COLD FRONT WAS ACROSS THE EASTERN PARTS OF WISCONSIN AND NORTHEAST ILLINOIS. A WEAK TROF RAN FROM SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 60S FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND OHIO VALLEY SOUTH WHILE 40S AND 50S WERE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE GREAT LAKES. SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY... THE QUESTION IS WILL CONVECTION FIRE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND THEN LINGER INTO THE EVENING. RAP TRENDS INDICATE THAT TEMPERATURES ARE EITHER AT OR JUST BELOW CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR CONVECTION WOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE INVERTED TROF ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CWFA BUT TEMPERATURES THERE ARE WELL BELOW THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE. SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW WEAK CU DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWFA. SO...UNLESS SOMETHING DEVELOPS IN THE NEXT 2.5 HRS ON SOME LOCALIZED SFC CONVERGENCE IT APPEARS THAT THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WILL REMAIN DRY. LATER TONIGHT THE DAKOTA SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT OVERLY STEEP AND THERE IS NO SFC CONVERGENCE TO HELP GET ANYTHING GOING. THUS OTHER THAN SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT SHOULD BE DRY AS WELL. TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD BE DRY WITH JUST PASSING CLOUDS FROM THE SHORTWAVE/VORT MAX. FCST MAX TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY ARE EITHER AT OR JUST BELOW THE PROJECTED CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES. THE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER WEAK WAVE/VORT MAX MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH MINNESOTA BY MID AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE MIGHT PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO GENERATE SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION THAT MOVES INTO THE HWY 20 CORRIDOR WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI BY VERY LATE AFTERNOON. 08 LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY... TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...STILL FEEL A COOL NIGHT/BELOW GUIDANCE IN STORE TO START OFF THE PERIOD WITH...IF ENOUGH CLEARING OCCURS UNDER CHANNELED VORT SHUTTLE ALOFT. SOME LOWS IN THE 40S POSSIBLE...WITH MANY LOWER 50S ELSEWHERE. ONGOING DRY AIRMASS AND WEAK INSTABILITY/FORCING REGIME ON WED CONTINUES TO SUPPORT ONGOING DRY FCST...NICE DAY WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80. CLEARING AND SEASONABLY COOL AGAIN WED NIGHT WITH SFC RIDGE AXIS PUSHING WEST SOME FROM THE GRT LKS. LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST INLAND BUILDING UPPER JET/WAVE ENERGY TO SHUNT BRUNT OF OMEGA BLOCKING UPPER RIDGE ACRS THE PLAINS AND UPPER MS RVR VALLEY BY LATE IN THE PERIOD/FRI MORNING. WHILE MCS/S FLARE UP ACRS THE NORTH HALF OF THE PLAINS AS A RESULT..THE LOCAL AREA TO REMAIN DRY THRU FRI MORNING WITH SOME SLIGHT THERMAL MODERATION. FRIDAY...BETTER TEMP RECOVER WITH INCREASED RETURN FLOW FRI WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 80S. DESPITE SOME MODELS TILTING UPPER RIDGE OFF TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION ENOUGH TO SPILL SOME OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS/MN MCS ACTIVITY DOWN TOWARD THE AREA FRI OR FRI NIGHT...FEEL THE RIDGE WILL BE PUMPED UP ENOUGH TO PREVENT THIS PROPAGATION TRAJECTORY AND DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST INTO SAT WHILE IT/S ROCK AND ROLL TIME FROM THE DAKOTAS...ACRS SOUTHERN CANADA AND TO THE NORTHWESTERN GRT LKS. SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...LONGER RANGE ENSEMBLES AS WELL AS THE NEW ECMWF SUGGEST BUILDING HEAT DOME WITH AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGING TO REIGN ACRS THE UPPER MIDWEST/MID AND UPPER MS RVR VALLEYS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. INCREASING LLVL WARM AND MORE MOIST FETCH NOW SUPPORT HIGHS ON SAT IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90...WITH SUNDAY POSSIBLY IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. WILL NOT ADVERTISE THOSE EXTREMES YET...BUT THE SUNDAY WARM SIGNAL HAS BEEN CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. MAIN STORM/MCS TRACK WILL LOOK TO BE MID TO LATE SUMMER-LIKE FROM THE HIGH PLAINS...TO ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER REGION OR EVEN FURTHER NORTH. WESTERN WAVE ENERGY SURGE TO EVENTUALLY BE REALIZED UP OVER THE RIDGE WITH A GREATLY DAMPENING EFFECT ON THE BLOCKED PATTERN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEASONABLY STRONG AND DEEPENING CYCLONE PUSHING ACRS CENTRAL CANADA WILL HAVE TO SHUNT A FRONT THROUGH THE REGION SOMETIME...WITH THE LATEST RUNS HINTING AT MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. EVEN THE PREVIOUSLY QUICKER GFS WITH THIS PROCESS HAS SLOWED TO THE CONSISTENT ECMWF IN TARGETING MON NIGH AND TUES AS THE NEXT MAIN PRECIP WINDOW. EXTENT OF CURRENTLY PROGGED MOISTURE FETCH/CONVEYOR UP OFF THE WESTERN GULF COULD FUEL LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH STORMS COMPLEX THAT GET GENERATED BY THIS FROPA. IF FRONT STALL ACRS THE AREA...A PROLONGED STORMY PERIOD COULD PERSIST WELL INTO MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. 12 && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...NONE. IL...NONE. MO...NONE. && $$
FXUS63 KLOT 050255 AFDLOT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 955 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 .DISCUSSION... 916 PM CDT NO REAL BIG CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST THIS EVENING...WITH ONLY MINOR EDITS TO SKY COVER AND MIN TEMPS. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER SCATTERED ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE MORE DENSE CLOUD COVER SITUATED OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THIS MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH SOUTHWEST WITH TIME TONIGHT WHILE DIMINISHING BRINGING SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...MAINLY FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA WITH THE REMAINING CWA TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. THE WEAK ECHOES CURRENTLY OBSERVED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN HAVE PRODUCED SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF RAIN...BUT EXPECT THIS TO ALSO DIMINISH AS IT MOVES SOUTH WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS THE CWA. RODRIGUEZ //PREV DISCUSSION... 310 PM CDT QUIET AND DRY WILL BE THE DOMINATING WEATHER WORDS OF THE WEEK. HIGHS WILL BE COOLER TOMORROW...BUT SLOWLY INCH UPWARDS BEFORE 80S ARE SEEN AGAIN BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT REAL CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. SATELLITE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS OUR AREA UNDER STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AS A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE SPANS MUCH OF THE WESTERN US AND LOW PRESSURE SPINS OFF OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND IS KEEPING CONDITIONS NEAR NORMAL /OUTSIDE OF LAKESIDE COUNTIES/ FOR EARLY JUNE. A WEAK RIPPLE IN THE FLOW AIDED IN BRINGING DRIZZLE AND SHOWERS TO THE AREA THIS MORNING. ANY INSTABILITY WAS SOUTH OF THE AREA AND MOST THUNDER STAYED TO WITHIN THAT VICINITY THIS MORNING. THAT SHORTWAVE FURTHER DAMPENED AND SHIFTED TO THE SOUTHEAST...AND IS CURRENTLY ACROSS INDIANA. LOCALLY...NOTHING BUT SUNNY AND MILKY BLUE SKIES WERE SEEN ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. HIGHS TOPPED OUT RIGHT AROUND 80 WEST OF THE I-39 CORRIDOR TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE SOUTH AND FOR MOST NON COASTAL LOCATIONS. DOWNTOWN CHICAGO AND ALL LOCATIONS ADJOINED TO THE LAKE FRONT SAW CHILLY HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S...TO MID 60S A FEW MILES INLAND. SOME CIRRUS BLOW OFF FROM EARLIER CONVECTION TO THE NORTHWEST MAY BRING SOME CLOUD COVER TO THE AREA TONIGHT. ANY SHOWERS THAT WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WILL BE WELL TO THE NORTH AND NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING TO WORK SOUTH AND INTO ANY OF OUR LOCATIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SEASONAL AND IN THE LOWER 50S TONIGHT...BUT THE CHICAGO URBAN HEAT ISLAND WILL HELP TO KEEP LOWS ACROSS THE METRO IN THE LOWER 60S. THIS PATTERN WILL GENERALLY REMAIN UNCHANGED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS WE STAY LOCKED INTO THE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER IN THE AFTERNOON THAN WERE EXPERIENCED TODAY...WITH LAKE FRONT LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SIMILAR TO TODAY...BUT INLAND AREAS BEING A FEW DEGREES COOLER. MODELS ARE PROGGING A SHEARED OUT VORT TO COME SLIDING IN FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT SIMILAR TO TONIGHT...ANY SHOWERS THAT MAY FORM WILL REMAIN OUTSIDE /AND TO THE WEST OF/ THE CWA AS GOOD MOISTURE AND FORCING ARE LACKING. THROUGH THE WEEK...THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE OUT WEST WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST...AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH THAT TIME WILL SLOWLY INCH NORTH AS WE WARM ALOFT. HIGHS BY THURSDAY WILL BE FLIRTING WITH THE 80S AGAIN...AND WEEKEND TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE THAT. THE NEXT FORESEEABLE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDER WONT BE UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK AS A WAVE ROLLS ACROSS THE RIDGE. NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED AT THIS POINT WITH THE CHANCES AND WILL MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING...THAT IS GENERALLY EXPECTED NORTH OF THE I-88 CORRIDOR. SHEA && .AVIATION... //ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 03Z... * NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KT TUESDAY LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. RC //DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z... QUIET TAF PERIOD IN STORE WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER WISCONSIN LIKELY ONLY TO PRODUCE FEW TO SCT MID LEVEL CLOUDS THIS EVENING AS IT SLIDES SOUTHEAST AND ENCOUNTERS DRY AIRMASS OVER TERMINALS. EAST AND NORTHEAST WINDS WILL REDUCE TO ONLY A FEW KNOTS BY MID EVENING...RAMPING BACK UP MID TUESDAY MORNING AS MIXING COMMENCES. EASTERN TERMINALS WILL KEEP STEADY FLOW AROUND OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 10 KT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY EVENING DUE TO LAKE INFLUENCE. WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS NOT SHOWING MUCH INCREASE IN WINDS ABOVE SURFACE DURING PEAK MIXING...NOT EXPECTING MUCH GUSTINESS...AND ANY GUSTS SHOULD ONLY TOP OUT IN THE MID TEENS. SOUNDINGS ALSO FEATURE BETTER MOISTURE THAN TODAY AT AROUND 5KFT...SO FEW TO SCT VFR CU IS POSSIBLE...WITH RFD AREA MOST LIKELY TO SEE SCT CU AWAY FROM STABILIZING INFLUENCE OF LAKE. RC //ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 03Z... * HIGH CONFIDENCE IN NORTHEAST WINDS BEING GENERALLY AROUND 10 KT TUESDAY LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH ONLY SPORADIC GUSTS IN THE MID TEENS. RC //OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 00Z... WEDS-THURS...VFR. FRIDAY...VFR. CHC SHRA FRIDAY EVENING. SATURDAY-SUNDAY...VFR. RC && .MARINE... 216 PM CDT QUIET WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK WITH LIGHT FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EASTWARD...BECOMING ANCHORED OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THROUGH WEDNESDAY...EXPECT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE THURSDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD...THEN SOUTHERLY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE HIGH SLIDES EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SOME THIS WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE SKIRTS ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO...BUT STABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE LAKE WILL HELP KEEP WINDS IN CHECK. BMD && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. IN...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$
FXUS63 KILX 050433 AFDILX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 1133 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 .DISCUSSION... ISSUED 853 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 01Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS 1006MB LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...WITH A FEW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM LINGERING ACROSS THE FAR SE KILX CWA. BASED ON SATELLITE/RADAR LOOPS...THESE SHOWERS WILL DROP COMPLETELY SOUTH OF THE AREA AFTER 10 PM. MEANWHILE...N/NE FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY BRING DRIER AIR INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT. CURRENT DEWPOINTS ARE STILL IN THE LOWER 60S...HOWEVER MUCH LOWER READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S ARE POISED JUST UPSTREAM ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS. ONCE LINGERING CLOUDS/SHOWERS CLEAR OUT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL DOMINATE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. LOW TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE MIDDLE 50S. WILL SEND AN UPDATED ZONE FORECAST ONCE SHOWERS END ACROSS THE SE CWA CLOSER TO 10 PM. && .AVIATION... ISSUED 1133 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE ENTIRE 06Z TAF PERIOD. OTHER THAN A FEW PATCHES OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER WAVE...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS TONIGHT. WITH N/NW UPPER FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION AND RELATIVELY COLD TEMPS ALOFT...THINK SCT CU WILL DEVELOP DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY. 00Z NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST BASES WILL BE AROUND 5000FT. LIGHT E/NE WINDS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE INTO THE 10 TO 15KT RANGE ON TUESDAY. BARNES && .PREV DISCUSSION... ISSUED 300 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 AFTER ANOTHER BATCH OF MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS TODAY...WE EXPECT A RELATIVELY DRY PERIOD FROM TUESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN HAVE COME INTO AGREEMENT ON MAINTAINING A BLOCKING PATTERN ALOFT ACROSS THE CONUS...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES DOWN INTO ILLINOIS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BREAK DOWN THE MID CONUS RIDGE AND MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO UPPER MICHIGAN...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN IL. ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA MAY EVEN ESCAPE PRECIP FROM THAT FRONT HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF ILLINOIS. AND DRY EASTERLY FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS C IL. SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DROPPING S-SE ACROSS C IL THIS AFTERNOON APPEAR TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELEVATED FRONT IN THE 850-700MB LAYER. THAT FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI MOVING SE TOWARD S IL. TRACKING THE ELEVATED FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE EVENING SHOULD PUT THE RAIN ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST OF OUR COUNTIES BY 6 PM...AFFECTING AREAS GENERALLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM EFFINGHAM TO ROBINSON THIS EVENING. SOME ELEVATE THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW WHERE A PERIOD OF SUNSHINE HAS HELPED INCREASE LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY. SFC DEWPOINTS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE MID 60S JUST TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF JACKSONVILLE AND SPRINGFIELD...WHICH IS ALSO ATTRIBUTING TO HIGHER INSTABILITY AND POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS. CANT RULE OUT SOME HAIL FROM A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS IN OUR SW-S COUNTIES. PRECIP SHOULD COME TO AN END BY MID EVENING...WITH CLEARING SKIES THE REST OF THE NIGHT. LOWS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT THE LOW TO MID 50S. THE UPPER LEVEL OMEGA BLOCK WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ON TUESDAY...AS THE EASTERN CONUS UPPER LOW BECOMES STATIONARY...A RIDGE BUILDS IN THE PLAINS AND EASTERN ROCKIES...AND A TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE WEST COAST. FOR TUES INTO WED...THE MODELS HAVE SHOWN A CONSISTENT SIGNAL IN THE 500 MB PATTERN OF A SHORTWAVE ROTATING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH...THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO ILLINOIS. SO FAR THE QPF FIELDS HAVE BEEN FAVORING DRY CONDITIONS FOR OUR AREA DURING THAT TIME...WITH A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS TO OUR EAST, NORTH AND WEST. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST DURING THAT TIME...BUT THE COLDER POCKET OF AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THAT FEATURE MAY HELP INCREASE DAYTIME INSTABILITY DURING PEAK HEATING...AND POSSIBLY PRODUCE SOME AFTERNOON SPRINKLES. DESPITE THE COOLER AIR ALOFT...OUR HIGH TEMPS SHOULD STILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE 70S TUES AND WED. INCREASING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ON THURSDAY SHOULD PROVIDE A DRY DAY...WITH WARMING 850MB TEMPS. HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB TO AROUND 80 IN MOST AREAS. LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. A CONTINUED WARMING TREND WILL HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED FORECAST...AS THE OMEGA BLOCK REMAINS STRONG FOR OUR AREA. THE FIRST WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL CHALLENGE THE BLOCK IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. PREVIOUS MODEL OUTPUT HAD THE SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS THE U.S. SIDE OF THE BORDER...BUT THE 12Z OUTPUT HAS STRENGTHENED THE BLOCKING RIDGE...AND PUSHED THE LOW TRACK INTO CANADA. THAT WILL REINFORCE THE WARMING TREND IN OUR COUNTIES...AND GIVE MORE CONFIDENCE IN A DRY FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND. HIGHS ON SATURDAY SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S...WITH SOME LOW 90S POSSIBLE FOR SUNDAY. THE NEXT WAVE OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL MAYBE NEXT MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT FINALLY BREAKS DOWN THE MID-CONUS RIDGE. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$
FXUS63 KLSX 050416 AFDLSX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO 1116 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 735 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 THE SURFACE LOW HAS CONTINUED TO SINK SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI AS OF 00Z. THE AREA OF GREATEST INSTABILITY HAS ALSO MOVED SOUTH OF THE REGION...WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS THIS EVENING OVER SOUTHWESTERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE DUE TO WEAK DEEP FORCING AND LACK OF SHEAR. OTHERWISE...PREVIOUS FORECAST CONTINUES TO TREND WELL THIS EVENING...WITH COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. JP && .SHORT TERM... ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 (TONIGHT) SURFACE LOW IS JUST NORTHWEST OF ST. LOUIS AS OF 19Z...AND INCREASING INSTABILITY AND CONVERGENCE NEAR THIS FEATURE HAS FINALLY INITIATED THUNDERSTORMS. SCATTERED STRONG TO OCCASIONALLY SEVERE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MIGRATE SE ALONG BOUNDARY THAT STRETCHES FROM THE LOW INTO SE PARTS OF OUR CWA...FUELED BY MLCAPES 2000-3000 J/KG POOLED ALONG AND WEST OF BOUNDARY. HAVE ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #353 FOR CENTRAL AND SE PARTS OF OUR CWA...INCLUDING STL METRO...THROUGH 03Z...ALTHOUGH THREAT WILL PROBABLY EXIT OUR CWA DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE...HOT AND HUMID WEATHER EARLY THIS EVENING WILLL GIVE WAY TO COOLER AND DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S FAR EAST TO THE LOW 60S OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MO. BYRD/TRUETT && .LONG TERM... ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 (TUESDAY-MONDAY) SHORT AND MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT STRONG OMEGA BLOCK WILL KEEP THE UA PATTERN LOCKED DOWN ACROSS THE CONUS INTO THURSDAY. AS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED FOR SEVERAL DAYS THIS SHOULD MEAN TRANQUIL EARLY JUNE WEATHER FOR THE CWA...WITH RELATIVELY MILD DAYS...SEASONABLY COOL NIGHTS...AND LITTLE IF ANY THREAT OF RAIN. GIVEN THE DRY NATURE OF THE AMS AND LACK OF SOIL MOISTURE HAVE TRIED TO DEPICT A FAIRLY PRONOUNCED DIURNAL TEMP SWING...WITH DAYTIME TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE GUIDANCE AND MINS NEAR THE 12Z MOS...WHICH IS SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN GUIDANCE OF THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. HEADING INTO THE LAST PART OF THE WEEK THE UPPER LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES FINALLY NUDGES EAST...WHICH ALLOWS RIDGING TO BUILD INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE BY FRIDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEKENED AS PERSISTENT E-NE WINDS OF TUESDAY-THURSDAY ARE REPLACED BY A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW...AND LATEST GUIDANCE SEEMS TO DEPICT THIS TREND WELL. PRECIPITATION THREAT SHOULD ALSO REMAIN QUITE LOW DURING THE PATTERN SHIFT. THERE IS AGREEMENT THAT A SHORTWAVE WILL BE TOP AND FLATTEN RIDGE ON FRIDAY...AND WE ARE GETTING TO THAT TIME OF YEAR WHERE WE NEED TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR RIDGE-RUNNING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES. HOWEVER WITH DYNAMICS OF THIS FEATURE STILL FOCUSED SO FAR N WILL MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST AT THIS TIME. ONE FEATURE OF NOTE IS UPPER LOW THAT GETS STUCK BENEATH THE PLAINS RIDGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DRIFT THIS LOW EAST FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK...WITH MOVEMENT PICKING UP A BIT OF A NORTHWARD COMPONENT BY THE START OF NEXT WEEK AS IT IS CAPTURED BY WEST SIDE OF UPPER RIDGE. WILL NOT INTRODUCE ANY PRECIPITATION YET WITH THIS FEATURE GIVEN UNCERTAINTY ON ITS EXACT MOVEMENT...BUT IT BEARS WATCHING. TRUETT && .AVIATION... ISSUED AT 1057 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 MOST OF THE LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND 5000-7000 FT IN THE ST LOUIS METRO AREA SHOULD ADVECT S OF THE TAF SITES BY 06Z TUE. MAY BE SOME PATCHY MID LEVEL CLOUDS DROPPING SWD INTO OUR AREA TUE MRNG... PLUS FEW-SCT DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS LATE TUE MRNG AND AFTN. SFC RIDGE WILL BUILD SWWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO OUR AREA WITH MAINLY NELY SFC WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...CLOUDS AROUND 7000 FT SHOULD MOVE S OF STL BY 06Z TUE. FEW-SCT DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS SHOULD DEVELOP LATE TUE MRNG AND AFTN. THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS DROPPING SWD THROUGH STL AREA ON TUE WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES DROPPING S-SEWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION. NELY SFC WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...INCREASING TO ABOUT 9-10 KTS TUE AFTN. GKS && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...NONE. IL...NONE. && $$ WFO LSX
FXUS63 KPAH 042350 AFDPAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 650 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 REVISED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAFS. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 133 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 SURFACE LOW JUST EAST OF KSTL WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SSE THIS EVENING AFTN...WITH THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. A CORRIDOR SLIGHT RISK AREA CONTINUES TO EXTEND FROM NEAR KSTL SOUTH ACROSS THE FA INTO WEST TENNESSEE. PRIMARY HAZARDS SHOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. DECENT CAPE VALUES BEING GENERATED BY THE MODELS...WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS INCREASING SLIGHTLY. SO THE POSSIBILITY SEEMS LEGIT. THE ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST OUT OF THE AREA DURING THE FIRST 1/2 OF TONIGHT. SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY AFTER MIDNIGHT...UNLESS THERE IS LINGERING CONVECTION ALONG THE KY/TN BORDER. DRY WEATHER FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. H5 RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. AND A DEEP LOW OFF THE NE COAST WILL KEEP THE REGION IN NNW FLOW ALOFT DURING THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE SLOWLY BUILDS SOUTH. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 133 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED WE ARE STILL IN A NW FLOW REGIME BUT LITTLE IF ANY ENERGY OR PERTURBATIONS WERE DETECTED BY THE LATEST OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS. HOWEVER THE GFS IS STILL FLIP FLOPPING WITH A HINT OF MOISTURE SUNDAY VS MONDAY 12Z MON RUN VS THE 6Z RUN RESPECTIVELY. THE CONSECUTIVE GFS RUNS DO INDICATE AT LEAST A DIRTY UPPER LEVEL HIGH BY SUNDAY WITH GULF MOISTURE RETURNING AS THE SURFACE HIGH MEANDERS OFF THE EAST COAST. HOWEVER THE 00Z SUN ECMWF HOLDS OFF WITH MAIN GULF MOISTURE UNTIL DAY 8. FOR NOW PLAN ON KEEPING FCST DRY UNLESS COLLABORATION OR THE INIT DICTATES OTHERWISE. AS FOR TEMPS EXPECT A SLOW WARMUP THROUGH 80S THIS WEEK FINALLY SOARING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 133 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 A FEW OF THE RAWS SITES ARE STILL FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS WHERE LITTLE TO NO RAIN HAD FALLEN AND WILL MONITOR CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLE HEIGHTENED FIRE WEATHER DANGER. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION...A FEW SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AT KEVV/KOWB WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AT KCGI/KPAH THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. WILL CONTINUE TO COVER WITH VCSH FOR NOW. A TREND TOWARDS CLEARING SKIES AND NORTHEAST WINDS WILL TAKE HOLD LATER TONIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL ON TUESDAY AS NORTHEAST WINDS PICK UP TO AROUND 10 KNOTS. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. MO...NONE. IN...NONE. KY...NONE. && $$
FLUS43 KDVN 040833 HWODVN HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL 333 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007- 009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-050845- BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-BENTON-LINN-JONES-JACKSON-IOWA-JOHNSON- CEDAR-CLINTON-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-KEOKUK-WASHINGTON-LOUISA-JEFFERSON- HENRY IA-DES MOINES-VAN BUREN-LEE-JO DAVIESS-STEPHENSON-CARROLL- WHITESIDE-ROCK ISLAND-HENRY IL-BUREAU-PUTNAM-MERCER-HENDERSON- WARREN-HANCOCK-MCDONOUGH-SCOTLAND-CLARK- 333 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EAST CENTRAL IOWA...NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY. HOWEVER SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TUESDAY...ISOLATED...MAINLY AFTERNOON...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. ANY STORMS WILL NOT BE SEVERE. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE IF THERE IS A RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT. $$ HAASE/NICHOLS
FLUS43 KLOT 042041 HWOLOT HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 341 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 ILZ003>006-008-010>014-019>023-032-033-039-INZ001-002-010-011-019- 052045- WINNEBAGO-BOONE-MCHENRY-LAKE ILLINOIS-OGLE-LEE-DE KALB-KANE- DUPAGE-COOK-LA SALLE-KENDALL-GRUNDY-WILL-KANKAKEE-LIVINGSTON- IROQUOIS-FORD-LAKE INDIANA-PORTER-NEWTON-JASPER-BENTON- 341 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 /441 PM EDT MON JUN 4 2012/ THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS... NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY FOR FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NECESSARY THROUGH TONIGHT. && COMPLETE FORECAST INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE NWS CHICAGO WEBPAGE: WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO $$ LMZ740>745-052045- WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR- WILMETTE HARBOR TO NORTHERLY ISLAND- NORTHERLY ISLAND TO CALUMET HARBOR-CALUMET HARBOR TO GARY- GARY TO BURNS HARBOR-BURNS HARBOR TO MICHIGAN CITY- 341 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY FOR THE ILLINOIS NEARSHORE. && COMPLETE FORECAST INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE NWS CHICAGO WEBPAGE: WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO $$ LMZ080-261-362-364-366-563-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868- 870-872-874-876-878-052045- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM MICHIGAN CITY IN TO ST. JOSEPH MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SEUL CHOIX POINT TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN SOUTH OF A LINE FROM SEUL CHOIX POINT TO THE MACKINAC BRIDGE AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM CHARLEVOIX MI TO SOUTH FOX ISLAND 5 NM OFFSHORE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM CHARLEVOIX TO POINT BETSIE MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM POINT BETSIE TO MANISTEE MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE TO STURGEON BAY WI- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM STURGEON BAY TO TWO RIVERS WI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM TWO RIVERS TO SHEBOYGAN WI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR IL 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WILMETTE HARBOR IL TO MICHIGAN CITY IN 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM PENTWATER TO MANISTEE MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ST. JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- 341 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. && COMPLETE FORECAST INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE NWS CHICAGO WEBPAGE: WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO $$ SHEA
FLUS43 KILX 042003 HWOILX HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 303 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 ILZ027>031-036>038-040>048-052015- CASS-CHAMPAIGN-DE WITT-FULTON-KNOX-LOGAN-MARSHALL-MASON-MCLEAN- MENARD-PEORIA-PIATT-SCHUYLER-STARK-TAZEWELL-VERMILION-WOODFORD- 303 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT. $$ ILZ049>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-052015- CHRISTIAN-CLARK-CLAY-COLES-CRAWFORD-CUMBERLAND-DOUGLAS-EDGAR- EFFINGHAM-JASPER-LAWRENCE-MACON-MORGAN-MOULTRIE-RICHLAND-SANGAMON- SCOTT-SHELBY- 303 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. ANY STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LEVELS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT. $$ 25
FLUS43 KLSX 050402 HWOLSX HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO 1102 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027- 034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-051130- GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL- MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL- CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX MO- LEWIS MO-SHELBY MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-RALLS MO-PIKE MO-BOONE MO- AUDRAIN MO-MONITEAU MO-COLE MO-OSAGE MO-CALLAWAY MO-MONTGOMERY MO- LINCOLN MO-GASCONADE MO-WARREN MO-ST. CHARLES MO-FRANKLIN MO- ST. LOUIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-JEFFERSON MO-CRAWFORD MO- WASHINGTON MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-IRON MO- MADISON MO-REYNOLDS MO- 1102 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TONIGHT. $$ JP
FLUS43 KPAH 041937 HWOPAH HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 236 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114-051000- JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON- WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE- HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH- WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES- LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL- UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN- MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER- RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID- 236 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY...AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT THERE CONTINUES TO BE A RISK FOR A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND WESTERN KENTUCKY. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS SHOULD BE SOUTHEAST UP TO 35 MPH. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTERS SHOULD MAINTAIN ALERT STATUS IN CASE THEIR ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. $$
FXUS63 KTOP 050453 AFDTOP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS 1153 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 ...UPDATE TO AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS/OBSERVATIONS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING THE LEADING EDGE OF DRIER AIR WITH THE COOL FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA CLEARING OUT THE CU FIELD IN ITS WAKE. DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE COUNTY WARNING AREA CONTINUE TO FALL OFF/MIX OUT INTO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S...BUT SHOULD EDGE BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S TONIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW...EXPECT CLOUDS IN MO TO REMAIN TO THE EAST TONIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 62 TO 64 DEGREE RANGE. ON TUESDAY...WILL SEE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AGAIN...BUT WITH SOME STRATOCU POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH COOLER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS THAN TODAY AND WEAKER MIXING...EXPECT HIGHS TUESDAY TO BE ABOUT 4 TO 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY OR MIDDLE 80S EASTERN CWA TO NEAR 90 WEST. WITH EASTERLY WINDS ONLY AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH...IT SHOULD BE A PLEASANT DAY WEATHERWISE. 63 THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY AND INCREASING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE RIDGE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THESE WILL STAY TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA AND NOT BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE SO EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO REMAIN OUTSIDE OF THE CWA. ADJUSTED HIGH TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE THE BLENDED MODEL SOLUTIONS FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FRIDAY EVENING COULD SEE SOME HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION MOVE INTO FAR NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS COUNTIES AND HAVE LEFT A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR THAT TIME PERIOD. THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH HINT AT ANOTHER WAVE MOVING INTO THE RIDGE WITH ENERGY FOCUSED NORTHWARD IN NEBRASKA. WILL KEEP THE NORTHERN COUNTIES DRY FOR NOW AND WILL SEE IF IT TRENDS MORE SOUTH IN THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS. HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. NEAR THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD BOTH THE 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF MOVE A TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL LIKELY DRAG A BOUNDARY SOUTH INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES AND HAVE INTRODUCED A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. HIGHS STILL IN THE 80S BUT ABOVE NORMAL. 53 && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. SMALL PROBABILITY OF GROUND FOG AT TOP...BUT TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN FORECAST. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$
FXUS63 KICT 050439 AFDICT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 1139 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 .AVIATION...06Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU VERY LITTLE TO CHANGE IN THE TAFS FROM THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. MAY SEE A FEW HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE CONVECTION TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST...BUT THEY WILL BE VERY INSIGNIFICANT AS THE SMALL UPPER DISTURBANCE MIGRATES SOUTHWARD INTO TEXAS. STILL EXPECT WINDS TO GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM NORTHEAST TO EAST AND SOUTHEAST AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA. LAUGEMAN && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012/ AVIATION...00Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR ALL TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24HRS...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. WINDS WILL SWITCH FROM THE NORTHEAST TO A EAST/SOUTHEAST DIRECTION ON TUESDAY. JAKUB PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012/ FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AS MID-UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO MOSTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. PRECIPITATION/THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES WILL BE VERY LOW MOST PERIODS...ALTHOUGH BETTER CHANCES MAY ARRIVE BY SUN NIGHT-MONDAY. THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...A VERY WEAK WIND SHIFT IS CURRENTLY PASSING OVER SOUTHERN KS...ASSOCIATED WITH AN IMPULSE DIVING SOUTHEAST OVER THE MIDWEST. GIVEN THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS...CANNOT RULE OUT A VERY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER. HOWEVER...LACK OF UPPER FORCING AND VERY WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL MOST LIKELY PRECLUDE ANY DEVELOPMENT...SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. ADDITIONALLY...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CURRENTLY OVER FAR WESTERN KS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH...IN CONCERT WITH UNSTABLE/WEAKLY CAPPED AIRMASS AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED DRY WEATHER TUE-WED. A FEW HIGH PLAINS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON-EVENING AS A NORTHEASTWARD MOVING IMPULSE GRAZES THE REGION...BUT THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT. ENDED UP REMOVING WEDNESDAY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...AS SHORT AND MEDIUM RANGE MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPS THE DEVELOPING SOUTHERN PLAINS CUTOFF/CLOSED LOW WELL TO THE SOUTH OF KS. ADDITIONALLY...SURFACE-BASED DEVELOPMENT APPEARS UNLIKELY GIVEN LACK OF FORCING WITH MID/UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE A TAD COOLER/DRIER BOTH DAYS AS THE CANADIAN AIRMASS ATTEMPTS TO ENCROACH FROM THE NORTH...BUT TEMPERATURE READINGS SHOULD STILL BE AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. THURSDAY-MONDAY...WITH GENERALLY PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED THIS PERIOD...ALTHOUGH PERSISTENT EASTERN CONUS TROUGHING AND ASSOCIATED CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE INTRUSIONS SHOULD PREVENT WELL ABOVE NORMAL READINGS...AT LEAST FOR THU-FRI. READINGS SHOULD CLIMB A FEW DEGREES HIGHER FOR THE WEEKEND AS RIDGING REPLACES EASTERN CONUS TROUGHING...ALLOWING STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASED LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES OVER MID-AMERICA. GIVEN LACK OF ANY DISCERNABLE TRIGGER MECHANISM (EITHER IN THE LOWER OR UPPER LEVELS) ENDED UP REMOVING POPS FOR THU AND FRI. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRAY STORMS GETTING INTO CENTRAL KS THU NIGHT...AS AFTERNOON HIGH PLAINS ACTIVITY ROLLS EAST/SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE. DIGGING WESTERN CONUS TROUGHING WILL ALLOW SOUTH WINDS TO INCREASE QUITE A BIT FOR SAT-SUN. COULD FINALLY BE LOOKING AT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARRIVING FOR SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY OVER THE ENTIRE AREA...AS MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS WESTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL EJECT NORTHEAST...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO MID-AMERICA. KLEINSASSER && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WICHITA-KICT 93 66 88 65 / 10 0 10 10 HUTCHINSON 93 65 88 64 / 0 0 10 10 NEWTON 91 65 87 64 / 0 0 10 10 ELDORADO 91 65 86 63 / 10 0 10 10 WINFIELD-KWLD 92 68 87 64 / 10 10 10 10 RUSSELL 92 63 90 64 / 0 0 10 10 GREAT BEND 92 64 91 64 / 0 0 10 10 SALINA 93 64 89 64 / 0 0 10 10 MCPHERSON 92 65 89 64 / 0 0 10 10 COFFEYVILLE 91 67 86 64 / 10 10 10 10 CHANUTE 91 66 86 63 / 10 0 10 10 IOLA 91 65 85 62 / 10 0 10 10 PARSONS-KPPF 91 66 86 64 / 10 10 10 10 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$
FXUS63 KDDC 050507 AFDDDC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS 1207 AM CDT TUE JUN 5 2012 ...UPDATED FOR AVIATION... .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 THE UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS FROM 12Z SHOWED A 500 MILLIBAR RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM EASTERN MONTANA SOUTH THROUGH COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS JUST SOUTH OF KANSAS EXTENDING EAST-WEST ACROSS ARKANSAS AND OKLAHOMA. FAIRLY WEAK FLOW ALOFT WAS WAS NOTED OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. IN THE LOWER LEVELS SOME WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WAS NOTED ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE KANSAS/COLORADO BORDER. NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME UNCAPPED OUT ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER IN THAT AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS ARE FAIRLY HIGH THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH WEAK FLOW ALOFT DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SEVERE WEATHER FROM THESE STORMS. AT MOST WOULD EXPECT SOME SMALL HAIL WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A DAMAGING GUST GIVEN THE INVERTED V SOUNDING PROFILE. HRRR SHOWS SOME THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS FAR EAST AS DODGE CITY THIS EVENING. AM NOT OVERLY EXCITED THAT THIS WILL OCCUR UNLESS WE GET AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE COLORADO BORDER CONVECTION FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS TO DEVELOP ON. WILL LEAVE THE DODGE CITY AREA DRY THIS EVENING. CONVECTION SHOULD BE DIMINISHING FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ON TUESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES A LITTLE FARTHER EAST AND EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN DAKOTAS INTO WESTERN KANSAS. THE NAM SHOWS A ZONE OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE MOVING OUT INTO WESTERN KANSAS. THINK WE SHOULD SEE WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHICH IS HANDLED FAIRLY WELL IN THE FORECAST. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT PLAINS WILL AID IN TEMPERATURES REMAINING WARM ALONG WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AND EARLY THURSDAY. NONETHELESS...A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER WILL EXIST TUESDAY NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A RETREATING DRYLINE. HOWEVER, I LOWERED PRECIPITATION CHANCES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER AS LOW LEVEL FORCING UNDER THE RIDGE WILL BE LACKING. LATER IN THE WEEK, THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS BY EARLY ON FRIDAY ALTHOUGH NO SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS SHOULD KEEP WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS GENERALLY DRY AND WARM. BY SATURDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL STRETCH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. A DEEP UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST OVER THE WEEKEND...WILL LEAVE THE CENTRAL PLAINS UNDER A WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME ALTHOUGH THE LEE TROUGH WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH WEST OVER CENTRAL COLORADO TO KEEP CONVECTION OUT OF WESTERN KANSAS. LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 60S WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, THEN WARM INTO THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S SUNDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL START IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WEDNESDAY, THEN DIP MAINLY INTO THE MIDDLE 80S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME NEXT WEEKEND WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND INTO THE 90S THROUGH MONDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1201 AM CDT TUE JUN 5 2012 AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH VERY WEAK WINDS ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE, A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALLOWING FOR LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TO BECOME MORE UPSLOPE SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD STAY EAST OF THE TAF SITES WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND SOME HIGH LEVEL CIRROSTRATUS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 65 90 65 86 / 10 20 20 20 GCK 64 91 65 86 / 20 20 20 20 EHA 63 87 62 86 / 30 20 20 20 LBL 65 89 64 86 / 20 20 20 20 HYS 64 90 65 86 / 10 20 20 20 P28 65 88 67 86 / 10 10 20 20 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...GERARD LONG TERM...BURKE AVIATION...KRUSE
FXUS63 KGLD 050537 AFDGLD AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS 1137 PM MDT MON JUN 4 2012 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 902 PM MDT MON JUN 4 2012 REMOVED PRECIP. CHANCES FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT AS THE ENVIRONMENT HAS STABILIZED BEHIND THE GUST FRONT. HAVE LEFT OUT A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG WHERE THE MAJORITY OF THE RAINFALL OCCURRED SINCE THE LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD HELP TO MIX OUT ANY FOG THAT MAY TRY TO FORM. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 201 PM MDT MON JUN 4 2012 WEAK UPPER FLOW AND RESULTING SHEAR UNDER THE RIDGE ALOFT WITH WARM DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND A LACK OF INHIBITION WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE REGION WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. EXPECT HIGH BASED SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF COLORADO...LAST THROUGH THE EVENING...AND THEN DIMINISH DURING THE LATE EVENING. PRIMARY ADJUSTMENT TO OVERNIGHT TUESDAY WAS TO BUMP LOW UP A FEW DEGREES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...AS WARM SOUTHEASTERLY NEAR-SURFACE FLOW PATTERN IS MAINTAINED. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 201 PM MDT MON JUN 4 2012 BLOCKY MID/UPPER FLOW REGIME WITH RIDGING IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND AT LEAST. A BROAD TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST RESULTING IN GENERALLY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW AND BRING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR PRECIP THROUGH FRIDAY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MEAGER...GENERALLY LESS THAN 25 KTS...THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. A MORE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND COULD PROVIDE A MORE ORGANIZED POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION. STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT IS CURRENTLY PROGGED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA SO NOT ANTICIPATING A WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER...FEEL COMFORTABLE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. RIDGING BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WHICH ALL RESULT IN TEMPS ONCE AGAIN REACHING THE MID 90S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. 04/12Z EC WOULD SUPPORT TEMPERATURES APPROACHING THE CENTURY MARK...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY. DID BUMP TEMPS A NOTCH OR TWO OVER GOING FORECAST BUT MAY NEED ADDITIONAL INCREASES IF TREND CONTINUES. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL KNOCK TEMPS BACK A FEW DEGREES. TEMPS MONDAY WILL BE COOLER YET WITH READINGS CLOSER TO CLIMO IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. WILL KEEP THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST DRY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1131 PM MDT MON JUN 4 2012 VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE 6Z TAFS. LIGHT WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. MID MORNING WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE...REACHING THEIR PEAK DURING THE MID AFTERNOON THEN DECLINE DURING THE EVENING. MEANWHILE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER EASTERN COLORADO AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO KANSAS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. KMCK SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. DUE TO THE SPARCE NATURE OF THE STORMS...WILL KEEP THEM OUT OF THE KGLD TAF FOR NOW. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JTL SHORT TERM...LOCKHART/FOLTZ LONG TERM...FOLTZ AVIATION...JTL
FXUS63 KGID 050532 AFDGID AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE 1232 AM CDT TUE JUN 5 2012 .AVIATION...06Z KGRI TAF...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KGRI FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAY SEE A FEW CLOUDS BETWEEN 5-10 KFT DURING THE DAY AS INDICATED BY MODELED CROSS SECTIONS AND WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY UP TO 10 KTS AFTER SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT FEATURES TO SPEAK OF THAT ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINAL THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1031 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012/ UPDATE...JUST SENT A VERY MINOR/COSMETIC UPDATE TO THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST...MAINLY TO INCREASE SKY COVER A LITTLE BIT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIN HIGH CIRRUS SPILLING INTO THE CWA FROM THE WEST FROM HIGH PLAINS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. EVEN SO...THIS CLOUD COVER SHOULD NOT BE OVERLY OPAQUE. ALSO PURGED ALL EVENING WORDING FROM ZONE FORECAST TEXT PRODUCT. MADE NO CHANGES WHATSOEVER TO OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS...WITH LOW-MID 60S STILL ON TRACK ALL AREAS. EXPANSIVE...HIGHLY AMPLIFIED MID/UPPER RIDGE PARKED OVER THE HEART OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS CERTAINLY MAKING THIS EARLY JUNE WEATHER ABOUT AS BENIGN AS POSSIBLE...AND KEPT OVERNIGHT POPS AT ZERO PERCENT CWA-WIDE. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012/ SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY. MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AS WELL AS MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH TROUGHING OVER THE EAST. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALSO NOTED OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC...SOME OF WHICH IS JUST NOW BEGINNING TO INFILTRATE EXTREME WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CONUS. TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS REMAINS VERY WEAK TODAY WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY RELEGATED TO OUR NORTH...WEST...AND EAST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS...WITH A MID LEVEL PLUME OF MOISTURE BEGINNING TO INFILTRATE THE EXTREME WEST AND NORTHWESTERN CONUS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS NOTED OVER OUR AREA. LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS OUR CWA REMAINS FROM THE NORTHEAST FOR THE MOST PART. AN OVERALL LACK IN KINEMATIC FORCING...MOSTLY DUE TO A STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...SHOULD PRESENT DRY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THE SURFACE RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA WILL PUSH TO THE EAST TONIGHT...ALLOWING LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS SHOULD YIELD TUESDAY MORNING LOWS SIMILAR TO THAT OF THIS MORNING...THUS LOW TO MID 60S ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST ACROSS THE CWA BY SUNRISE TUESDAY. LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW AND A RESULTANT SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD SHOULD PRESENT ~25-DEGREE TEMPERATURE RISES DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...THUS PROVIDING TUESDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL BE ASCERTAINING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST. EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN STILL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURES...BUT THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN LOWER LEVELS TO DECREASE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. THE MOST PROMINENT FEATURE FOR US WILL BE THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED...HOWEVER THIS RIDGE SHOULD TRANSLATE TO THE EAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY UNDERNEATH THE POWERFUL INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH WIDE AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS. ANY CONVECTION DEVELOPING ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE WELL WEST IN THE HIGH PLAINS NEAR A SURFACE BOUNDARY BEFORE HAVING THE CHANCE TO MAKE ITS WAY EAST. MOST IF NOT ALL MODELS ARE LEANING TOWARD THIS SOLUTION. FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...I WILL PROBABLY LEAN DRY FOR THIS PERIOD AS WELL AS THE BOUNDARY STALLS WELL TO THE NORTHWEST AND THE LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD SET UP JUST WEST OF THE CWA OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WITH THE BEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE REMAINING WEST AS WELL. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT THUNDERSTORMS COULD CREEP INTO THE WESTERN CWA...SO LEAVING SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THERE. THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT COULD GET A LITTLE TRICKY AS THE SREF ENSEMBLES INDICATE THAT THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SHOULD ADVANCE A BIT FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST BY AFTERNOON...STILL JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CWA WHILE THE NAM DRAGS THE BOUNDARY INTO THE CWA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. EVEN IF THE BOUNDARY IS NOT ENTIRELY IN THE CWA...BY THURSDAY EVENING...WE COULD GET STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG OUTFLOWS OF PARENT THUNDERSTORMS. BUT WITH THE LOW-SHEAR AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT...ONLY AN OCCASIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS ANTICIPATED FROM ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT MAY DEVELOP. ON THE FLIP SIDE...THE ECMWF AND GFS HOLD THIS BOUNDARY WELL TO THE WEST...EVEN BY THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...SO I AM NOT GOING TO GET CARRIED AWAY WITH VERY HIGH CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AT THIS POINT...ESPECIALLY WITH THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE. BY THE WEEKEND...EXTEND MODELS TRANSLATE THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...MAKING WAY FOR AN APPROACHING LONGWAVE TROUGH ENTERING THE NORTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. WITH UNCERTAINTY OF THE PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY THEREAFTER...LOW CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WOULD BE PRUDENT FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT AS WELL. THE LONG RANGE MODELS WASH OUT THIS BOUNDARY BY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...WITH PERHAPS SOME HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION WELL OUT TO THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS...BUT PROBABLY NOT MAKING IT FAR ENOUGH EAST TO PUT IN THE FORECAST. I PREFER THE ECMWF SOLUTION IN THE OUTER PERIODS AS THE GFS MAY BE A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE ABOUT PUSHING THE TROUGH TOO FAR EAST AS WELL AS HANGING BACK A CLOSED LOW OVER CALIFORNIA. THIS DOES NOT JIBE WITH GUIDANCE AVERAGES AS WELL AS THE ECMWF DOES WITH ITS FORECAST. BY SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...THE ECMWF DISPLAYS A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH THE LONGWAVE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND LONGWAVE TROUGH TO THE WEST...WITH A CLOSED LOW IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF SASKATCHEWAN. THIS WILL ALLOW THE NEXT BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCEMENT OF THE TROUGH TO BE IN THE PROXIMITY OF OUR CWA AT THE END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST AND WILL KEEP CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN AREAS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MOST OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY EAST...ON MONDAY. WITH THE RIDGE IN PLACE TOWARD THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST...TEMPERATURES SHOULD SOAR WELL INTO THE 80S TO AROUND 90. THERE COULD BE A SLIGHT COOL DOWN WITH SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUDINESS ON THURSDAY WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE BOUNDARY...BUT NOT A SITUATION WHERE A LOT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION IS GOING TO COOL US DOWN. WE WILL BE WELL AHEAD OF THE TROUGH INTO THE WEEKEND...SO THIS SHOULD MEAN MORE OF THE SAME FOR TEMPERATURES...BUT WITH PERHAPS MORE OF A SOUTH BREEZE. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ AVIATION...ROSSI UPDATE...PFANNKUCH SHORT TERM...BRYANT LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
FLUS43 KTOP 042035 HWOTOP HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS 335 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-052045- REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY- POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS- WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON- 335 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE NORTH CENTRAL COUNTIES THURSDAY NIGHT. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT. $$
FLUS43 KICT 042123 HWOICT HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 422 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-052130- RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE- RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER- SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE- 422 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS... SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY GET INTO CENTRAL KANSAS THURSDAY NIGHT. THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TONIGHT. && FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP $$ JMB/ADK
FLUS43 KDDC 041140 AAB HWODDC HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS 640 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-051145- TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN- PAWNEE-STAFFORD-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA- PRATT-MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER- 640 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 /540 AM MDT MON JUN 4 2012/ THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL...SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THEN SPREAD TO THE EAST AFTER SUNSET. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE A LOW PROBABILITY OF BECOMING SEVERE. IF STORMS DEVELOP THEY WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND HAVE BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE KANSAS AND COLORADO BORDER LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THESE STORMS DO NOT LOOK TO BECOME SEVERE AT THIS TIME. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS IF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. IT IS TOO EARLY TO TELL IF ANY OF THESE STORM WILL BE SEVERE. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT. && FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC $$ 06
FLUS43 KGLD 050313 HWOGLD HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS 912 PM MDT MON JUN 4 2012 COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-051715- YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON- SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA- DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW- 912 PM MDT MON JUN 4 2012 /1012 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012/ THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TONIGHT. $$
FLUS43 KGID 042045 HWOGID HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE 345 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087- 051200- PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE- SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-DAWSON-BUFFALO-HALL-HAMILTON-YORK- GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN- WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER- 345 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THERE WILL BE VARYING CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...BUT THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT. && MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE: HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS (ALL LOWERCASE) $$ BRYANT/HEINLEIN
FXUS63 KGRR 050441 AFDGRR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 1245 AM EDT TUE JUN 5 2012 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 318 PM EDT MON JUN 4 2012 FAIR WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE ENOUGH CLOUDS AND INSTABILITY AROUND FOR A FEW ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. MORE INSTABILITY BUILDS BY WEDNESDAY WHEN A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY INLAND FROM THE LAKE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE COMFORTABLE 70S EACH DAY. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 318 PM EDT MON JUN 4 2012 SURFACE RIDGING WILL SLOWLY DRIFT FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO TONIGHT TO THE WESTERN LAKE GREAT BY WED NIGHT. DESPITE THIS THERE WILL BE LOW LEVEL CONCERNS FOR A FEW SHOWERS...AND MAYBE EVEN A COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS...THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE COMING THROUGH THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE THE PUSH OF DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVING BEHIND THIS TROUGH TONIGHT FROM THE NE. THERE WERE A A FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE STRAITS THIS AFTERNOON AND THESE COULD SURVIVE INTO THE EASTERN CWA BY THIS EVENING. WILL CARRY SLGT CHANCE POPS FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES OVER THE EASTERN CWA TONIGHT. DESPITE THE EXITING OF THE TROUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS TUESDAY. AGAIN AN ISOLATED SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS TIME THEY COULD GET KICKED OFF BY A LAKE BREEZE...SO IT SEEMS THE WESTERN CWA HAS THE OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR TUESDAY. LI/S LOOK MARGINAL FOR THUNDER...SO HAVE LEFT THAT OUT. BETTER SETUP FOR A FEW DAYTIME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE STORMS ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTH BY MID DAY. TIMING LOOKS GOOD AND MODELS SUGGEST BETTER INSTABILITY WILL BUILD BY AFTERNOON. THIS IS AGAIN A RATHER WEAK FEATURE SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THEN A WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION...HOWEVER GIVEN THE INSTABILITY WILL ADD THUNDER. WE WILL PROBABLY SEE A LAKE SHADOW GIVEN THE NW LOW LEVEL FLOW...SO WOULD EXPECT ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS TO BE INLAND...WITH 20/30 POPS COVERING IT. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 318 PM EDT MON JUN 4 2012 SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SINK SOUTH OVER TIME. WHILE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK DRY...PCPN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. THE HIGH MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST US WILL ENABLE A LOW MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA TO TRY TO PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE STATE. CHANCES ARE SLIM THAT PCPN WILL ACTUALLY DEVELOP AND MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY. UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE STATE HELPING TO SUPPRESS PCPN. AS SOUTHWEST FLOW STRENGTHENS LATE IN THE WEEKEND...TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE MID 80S AND HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE. IT/S LIKELY THAT ANY SUBSTANTIAL PCPN THREAT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THE PERIOD AS THAT UPPER RIDGE WILL BE DIFFICULT TO DISPLACE AND WILL LIKELY TAKE A BIT LONGER THAN THE MODELS CURRENTLY SUGGEST. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 1245 AM EDT TUE JUN 5 2012 VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY. NOTHING MORE THAN SCT MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND SOME SCT-BKN FAIR WX CUMULUS DEVELOPING BY MIDDAY TUESDAY. ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY NEAR THE LAKE MI SHORELINE WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OF WINDS NOTED NEAR THE LAKESHORE (NORTHWESTERLY OVER THE LAKE AND NORTHEASTERLY OVER LAND). A LAKE BREEZE AT KMKG WILL KICK WINDS UP TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 15 KTS. WIND SPEEDS AT THE REST OF THE TERMINALS WILL STAY NEAR OR BELOW 10 KTS THRU THE NEXT 24 HRS. && .MARINE... ISSUED AT 318 PM EDT MON JUN 4 2012 WITH A SURFACE HIGH NEARBY THE WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 318 PM EDT MON JUN 4 2012 HIT AND MISS SHOWERS MAY OCCURRED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...BUT NO HYDRO ISSUES ARE EXPECTED. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JK SHORT TERM...93 LONG TERM...MACZKO AVIATION...LAURENS HYDROLOGY...JK MARINE...JK
FXUS63 KIWX 050532 AFDIWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 132 AM EDT TUE JUN 5 2012 .AVIATION... BACK DOOR TYPE OF FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST AS DRIER AIR FROM CANADA SPREADS OVER NRN INDIANA. SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UP TO 700 MB SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A VFR SC CLOUD DECK LATER TODAY WITH DAYTIME MIXING. OTHERWISE...CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER OUT LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH WINDS BECOMING 5 KNOTS OR LESS. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 PM EDT MON JUN 4 2012/ SHORT TERM / TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT /... RATHER MUNDANE SHORT TERM WITHOUT MUCH WEATHER OF CONSEQUENCE AS BLOCKED FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES. AREA REMAINS SANDWICHED BETWEEN RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS AND EAST COAST TROUGH. RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO BUILD ITS WAY EAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS THAT COULD CLIP NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF CWA BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS VORT MAX ROUNDS BASE OF TROUGH TO THE NE. MAIN FORCING REMAINS TO THE N/NE OF AREA AND WITH VERY DRY LOWER LEVELS IN PLACE HAVE CONTINUED WITH DRY POPS FOR NOW. SUSPECT SOME MID TO HIGH LVL CLOUD COVER WILL BE ONLY CONSEQUENCE. HI TEMPS TOMORROW WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOW 70S WITH NORTHERLY FLOW. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 50S. LONG TERM... WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...HIGHLY AMPLIFIED/BLOCKED UPPER FLOW WITH NEGATIVE NAO EASTERN CONUS TROUGH AND CENTRAL PLAINS RIDGE WILL PERSIST THIS PERIOD. THE RESULTING NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES WILL ALLOW FOR LOW HUMIDITY AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TO CONTINUE. COOL TEMPS ALOFT AND DIURNAL HEATING MAY BE ENOUGH TO SPARK ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS/SPRINKLES INVOF OF WEAK LAKE BREEZES AS WEAKNESS ALOFT HANGS BACK WESTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER...DRY CP AIRMASS WITH SFC RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES ONLY WARRANTS "DRY" 10 POPS FOR NOW. FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE EXPANSIVE PLAINS UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION. HEIGHT RISES/WARMING ALOFT WILL BRING AN END TO ANY CHANCES FOR DIURNAL ISO SHOWERS AS TEMPERATURES WARM BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES BY THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES CRESTING THE RIDGE...IN CONJUNCTION WITH A DEVELOPING CENTRAL CONUS LLJ DOES HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY FOR CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES DEVELOPING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND WEAKENING EWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. OPTED TO RETAIN OUR DRY FCST THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS EXPECT THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY TO STAY NORTH AND WEST ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. RIDGE AXIS LOOKS TO SETTLE INTO THE OH VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY SUPPORTING DRY CONDITIONS AND HIGH TEMPS NEARING 90F. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...OBERGFELL LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL AVIATION...SKIPPER
FXUS63 KLOT 050255 AFDLOT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 955 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 .DISCUSSION... 916 PM CDT NO REAL BIG CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST THIS EVENING...WITH ONLY MINOR EDITS TO SKY COVER AND MIN TEMPS. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER SCATTERED ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE MORE DENSE CLOUD COVER SITUATED OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THIS MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH SOUTHWEST WITH TIME TONIGHT WHILE DIMINISHING BRINGING SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...MAINLY FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA WITH THE REMAINING CWA TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. THE WEAK ECHOES CURRENTLY OBSERVED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN HAVE PRODUCED SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF RAIN...BUT EXPECT THIS TO ALSO DIMINISH AS IT MOVES SOUTH WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS THE CWA. RODRIGUEZ //PREV DISCUSSION... 310 PM CDT QUIET AND DRY WILL BE THE DOMINATING WEATHER WORDS OF THE WEEK. HIGHS WILL BE COOLER TOMORROW...BUT SLOWLY INCH UPWARDS BEFORE 80S ARE SEEN AGAIN BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT REAL CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. SATELLITE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS OUR AREA UNDER STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AS A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE SPANS MUCH OF THE WESTERN US AND LOW PRESSURE SPINS OFF OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND IS KEEPING CONDITIONS NEAR NORMAL /OUTSIDE OF LAKESIDE COUNTIES/ FOR EARLY JUNE. A WEAK RIPPLE IN THE FLOW AIDED IN BRINGING DRIZZLE AND SHOWERS TO THE AREA THIS MORNING. ANY INSTABILITY WAS SOUTH OF THE AREA AND MOST THUNDER STAYED TO WITHIN THAT VICINITY THIS MORNING. THAT SHORTWAVE FURTHER DAMPENED AND SHIFTED TO THE SOUTHEAST...AND IS CURRENTLY ACROSS INDIANA. LOCALLY...NOTHING BUT SUNNY AND MILKY BLUE SKIES WERE SEEN ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. HIGHS TOPPED OUT RIGHT AROUND 80 WEST OF THE I-39 CORRIDOR TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE SOUTH AND FOR MOST NON COASTAL LOCATIONS. DOWNTOWN CHICAGO AND ALL LOCATIONS ADJOINED TO THE LAKE FRONT SAW CHILLY HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S...TO MID 60S A FEW MILES INLAND. SOME CIRRUS BLOW OFF FROM EARLIER CONVECTION TO THE NORTHWEST MAY BRING SOME CLOUD COVER TO THE AREA TONIGHT. ANY SHOWERS THAT WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WILL BE WELL TO THE NORTH AND NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING TO WORK SOUTH AND INTO ANY OF OUR LOCATIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SEASONAL AND IN THE LOWER 50S TONIGHT...BUT THE CHICAGO URBAN HEAT ISLAND WILL HELP TO KEEP LOWS ACROSS THE METRO IN THE LOWER 60S. THIS PATTERN WILL GENERALLY REMAIN UNCHANGED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS WE STAY LOCKED INTO THE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER IN THE AFTERNOON THAN WERE EXPERIENCED TODAY...WITH LAKE FRONT LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SIMILAR TO TODAY...BUT INLAND AREAS BEING A FEW DEGREES COOLER. MODELS ARE PROGGING A SHEARED OUT VORT TO COME SLIDING IN FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT SIMILAR TO TONIGHT...ANY SHOWERS THAT MAY FORM WILL REMAIN OUTSIDE /AND TO THE WEST OF/ THE CWA AS GOOD MOISTURE AND FORCING ARE LACKING. THROUGH THE WEEK...THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE OUT WEST WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST...AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH THAT TIME WILL SLOWLY INCH NORTH AS WE WARM ALOFT. HIGHS BY THURSDAY WILL BE FLIRTING WITH THE 80S AGAIN...AND WEEKEND TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE THAT. THE NEXT FORESEEABLE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDER WONT BE UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK AS A WAVE ROLLS ACROSS THE RIDGE. NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED AT THIS POINT WITH THE CHANCES AND WILL MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING...THAT IS GENERALLY EXPECTED NORTH OF THE I-88 CORRIDOR. SHEA && .AVIATION... //ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 03Z... * NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KT TUESDAY LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. RC //DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z... QUIET TAF PERIOD IN STORE WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER WISCONSIN LIKELY ONLY TO PRODUCE FEW TO SCT MID LEVEL CLOUDS THIS EVENING AS IT SLIDES SOUTHEAST AND ENCOUNTERS DRY AIRMASS OVER TERMINALS. EAST AND NORTHEAST WINDS WILL REDUCE TO ONLY A FEW KNOTS BY MID EVENING...RAMPING BACK UP MID TUESDAY MORNING AS MIXING COMMENCES. EASTERN TERMINALS WILL KEEP STEADY FLOW AROUND OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 10 KT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY EVENING DUE TO LAKE INFLUENCE. WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS NOT SHOWING MUCH INCREASE IN WINDS ABOVE SURFACE DURING PEAK MIXING...NOT EXPECTING MUCH GUSTINESS...AND ANY GUSTS SHOULD ONLY TOP OUT IN THE MID TEENS. SOUNDINGS ALSO FEATURE BETTER MOISTURE THAN TODAY AT AROUND 5KFT...SO FEW TO SCT VFR CU IS POSSIBLE...WITH RFD AREA MOST LIKELY TO SEE SCT CU AWAY FROM STABILIZING INFLUENCE OF LAKE. RC //ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 03Z... * HIGH CONFIDENCE IN NORTHEAST WINDS BEING GENERALLY AROUND 10 KT TUESDAY LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH ONLY SPORADIC GUSTS IN THE MID TEENS. RC //OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 00Z... WEDS-THURS...VFR. FRIDAY...VFR. CHC SHRA FRIDAY EVENING. SATURDAY-SUNDAY...VFR. RC && .MARINE... 216 PM CDT QUIET WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK WITH LIGHT FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EASTWARD...BECOMING ANCHORED OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THROUGH WEDNESDAY...EXPECT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE THURSDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD...THEN SOUTHERLY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE HIGH SLIDES EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SOME THIS WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE SKIRTS ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO...BUT STABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE LAKE WILL HELP KEEP WINDS IN CHECK. BMD && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. IN...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$
FXUS63 KIND 050424 AFDIND AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN 1224 AM EDT TUE JUN 5 2012 .UPDATE... THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW. && .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 1003 PM EDT MON JUN 4 2012 WEAK SURFACE DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT ENDING ANY LINGERING SHOWERS. OTHERWISE THE AREA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE BROAD UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY SPRINKLE NEAR PEAK HEATING WITH THIS CYCLONIC FLOW...BUT NOTHING THAT MERITS A POP MENTION. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM MIDWEEK THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH A WARMING TREND ACCOMPANYING THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/... ISSUED AT 1003 PM EDT MON JUN 4 2012 LAST WAVE OF STUBBORN SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT THE FAR SOUTHWEST FORECAST AREA WITHIN AN HOUR OR SO...SO KEPT POPS THERE FOR A BIT LONGER. CLOUDS WILL THEN CLEAR OUT OF THE SOUTH AS WELL. ONLY EXPECT SOME SCATTERED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ELSEWHERE TONIGHT...SO KEPT MOSTLY CLEAR THERE OVERNIGHT. DEWPOINT GRADIENT EXISTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH 40S DEWPOINTS TO THE NORTH AND 60S SOUTH. SOME OF THIS DRY AIR SHOULD MOVE INTO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT NORTHERLY. HOWEVER UNTIL THAT HAPPENS...THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG. HAVE THUS ADDED PATCHY FOG TO THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. GIVEN THE DRIER AIR WORKING IN AND EXPECTED CLOUD COVER TEMPERATURES LOOK ALL RIGHT. ONLY ADJUSTED HOURLY TRENDS. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT MON JUN 4 2012 FOCUS IS MAINLY ON TEMPS. GUIDANCE IS SIMILAR AND A BLEND CONTINUES TO SUFFICE. AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE BROAD UPPER LOW TO THE NORTHEAST. GUIDANCE AT VARIOUS TIMES WANTS TO SPIT OUT VERY LIGHT PRECIP AMOUNTS AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...BUT LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN THESE SOLUTIONS. CANNOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT A STRAY SPRINKLE NEAR PEAK HEATING...BUT NOTHING THAT MERITS A POP MENTION. MAIN IMPACT OF THIS CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS IN THE AFTERNOONS. ON TEMPS...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO LOOK SLIGHTLY TOO COOL BASED ON 850 TEMPS AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES. HAVE BUMPED THESE NUMBERS UP SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE BOARD. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT MON JUN 4 2012 ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD AND WILL USE A BLEND. VERY STRONG RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...PROVIDING MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS AND MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS. LIMITED DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED BENEATH THE RIDGE. AS THE SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST...A WARMER MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP...ALLOWING FOR A WARMING TREND AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY THE WEEKEND...A RETURN TO JULY LIKE WEATHER. ALLBLEND DID A PRETTY GOOD JOB OVERALL...AND ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO HIGH TEMPERATURES...MAINLY WARMER...WERE MADE GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF SUN AND HEATING EXPECTED. && .AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 050600Z TAF ISSUANCE/... ISSUED AT 1223 AM EDT TUE JUN 5 2012 BMG HAS DROPPED TO 2SM IN LIGHT FOG...HOWEVER UPPER 40 DEW POINTS WERE AS FAR SOUTH AS SHELBYVILLE AND MAY REACH BMG AND HUF IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. IF THAT HAPPENS AS PLANNED...SHOULD NOT SEE MUCH FOG TONIGHT BY ISSUANCE TIME...AND WILL ONLY GO WITH TEMPO MVFR FROM 08Z-12Z AT HUF AND BMG AS A RESULT. NORTHEAST WINDS OFF THE CITY STAYING UP AROUND 6 KNOTS AT IND SHOULD CERTAINLY KEEP FOG FROM FORMING...WHILE MID 40 DEW POINTS AT LAF SHOULD ALSO KEEP IT AWAY. OTHERWISE...WITH COLD AIR ALOFT AND RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...EXPECT BROKEN VFR DIURNAL CU AFTER 15Z TODAY. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR TONIGHT EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS SOME LOW STRATUS. WILL GO OPTIMISTIC FOR NOW AND KEEP IT CLEAR...HOWEVER. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NIELD/50 NEAR TERM...50 SHORT TERM...NIELD LONG TERM....PUMA AVIATION...KOCH
FXUS61 KILN 050549 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 149 AM EDT TUE JUN 5 2012 .SYNOPSIS... NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE BETWEEN A DEPARTING UPPER LOW OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND...AND RIDGING ACROSS THE PLAINS. DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW WILL PRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THROUGH MID WEEK. RIDGING WILL THEN PRODUCE DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES TO END THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO CONTINUE WITH WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE DROPPING THRU KY. ASSOCIATED SHOWERS ARE SOUTH OF ILN/S FA AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL CLOUD ARE THINNING OUT AT THEY PUSH SE. AT THE SFC A WEAK TROF AXIS WAS PUSHING THRU THE SRN PORTION OF ILN/S FA WITH LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NE. THIS WILL ALLOW DRIER AIR TO FILTER IN. WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR. FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED TONIGHT UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...UPPER 40 SFC DEWPOINTS...AND LIGHT WINDS. CONTINUED PREV FCST THINKING GOING A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE WITH TONIGHTS LOWS WHICH ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 50. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL PIVOT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE TO PRODUCE AN AREA OF ENHANCED CLOUD COVER WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE. THIS WILL KEEP MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN CHECK AT LOCATIONS WHERE THIS FEATURE ENDS UP. MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES HAVING THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING A SHOWER DURING THE DAY. HAVE KEPT THEIR TEMPERATURES BELOW GUIDANCE...WITH A GRADIENT TOWARDS NEAR GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. NOTE...THAT THE MODELS WERE OVER FORECASTING QPF FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN ZONES TODAY...WHERE ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION OCCURRED. THEREFORE...THE POPS FOR TUESDAY MAY BE A BIT AGGRESSIVE IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. THE LOW OFF NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL BEGIN TO LOSE ITS INFLUENCE ACROSS OUR REGION. HAVE KEPT TUESDAY NIGHT DRY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. FORECAST LOWS WERE A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND SREF...WITH ANOTHER NIGHT FAVORABLE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. ONE FINAL WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. WITH SURFACE RIDGING BEGINNING TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY STABLE. HAVE THEREFORE ONLY FORECAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS DURING THE DAYTIME...DISSIPATING AS WE LOSE DIURNAL HEATING. SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTROL OUR WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THE REGION WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON THURSDAY...BUT WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINNING TO WORK IN FROM THE WEST...WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST. UNDER CONTINUED WEAK NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT BUILDING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INTO TO AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE 12Z ECMWF IS NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS THE 12Z GFS WITH THE RIDGE AND IT IS SHOWING SOME VERY WEAK ENERGY DROPPING DOWN ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. THINK ANY PCPN WITH THIS WOULD STILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTHEAST THOUGH SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN...EXPECT TO SEE A STEADY WARM UP THROUGH THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE WELL INTO THE 80S WITH EVEN A FEW LOWER 90S POSSIBLE. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... OUR REGION WILL CONTINUE UNDER A NW FLOW PATTERN ALOFT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE WITHIN THIS FLOW IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 15Z AND 00Z AS IT ROTATES FROM NE TO SW TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER. LOW TO MID LVL MOISTURE...WEAK LIFT...AND DAYTIME INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SHOWERS TO DEVELOP...MAINLY DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY. COVERAGE STILL APPEARS SMALL ENOUGH ATTM TO JUST INCLUDE A VCSH AT THE TAF SITES. SHOWERS SHOULD SHOW A DECREASING TREND FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE IN THE DAY AS SOME SUBSIDENCE WORKS IN BEHIND THE DISTURBANCE. CLEAR SKIES EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO BKN VFR CIGS DURING THE DAY. EXCEPTION WILL BE KCMH/KLCK WHERE SOME STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS MAY ARRIVE AROUND 12Z IN THE MVFR CATEGORY. THESE SHOULD RISE TO VFR LEVELS BY 15Z. SOME IFR VSBYS AT KLUK DUE TO RIVER FOG MAY OCCUR BRIEFLY BETWEEN 10Z AND 13Z THIS MORNING. OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LATTO NEAR TERM...AR SHORT TERM...LATTO LONG TERM...JGL AVIATION...HICKMAN
FXUS63 KLMK 050531 AFDLMK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY 130 AM EDT TUE JUN 05 2012 .Forecast Update... Issued at 1050 PM EDT Mon Jun 4 2012 One more update to get rid of the Watch headline. Scattered showers and storms still are possible, but temperatures have fallen enough/low levels have stabilized enough to preclude much in the way of damaging winds getting down. Stronger cell over Monroe and Barren counties earlier only had winds to 30-40 mph after calling several spotters in its path. Light rains will end from north to south soon after midnight. Earlier inserted patchy fog into the grids. Most stations are at 10 miles in vsby, and do have some drier air that should try and work in from the north overnight. Still with good rains across now most of the region, would not be surprised to get some fog toward daybreak Tuesday. Issued at 755 PM EDT Mon Jun 4 2012 Outflow boundary now into Logan and Simpson counties. A little more convection has fired upstream, and may yet see some development out ahead of it. However, given that the environment is more stable over an Ohio to Allen county line, will drop them from the watch this hour. Issued at 650 PM EDT Mon Jun 4 2012 Line of convergence right around where it was expected to be at this hour, but storms just are now firing off of it. Have a few upstream moving into a fairly hot airmass over Southern Illinois. These may be the best chance for further development, but if we do not see significant increase in the next hour, then we can drop the current watch. Otherwise have updated the forecast for current obs and radar trends and removed the evening wording. Issued at 510 PM EDT Mon Jun 4 2012 Issued severe thunderstorm watch box 353 for our southwest forecast area, based on unstable conditions down there (87 degrees at BWG this hour compared to 66 at SDF!). Also, high-res models are hinting at some late afternoon development either from storms upstream, now developing into southern Illinois or new development along the differential heating plus outflow boundaries northwest to southeast across that region. Products have been updated to reflect this change. .Short Term (Tonight through Tuesday night)... Issued at 310 PM EDT Mon Jun 4 2012 A disturbance moving through northwest flow aloft continues to impact the region this afternoon. At the same time, a surface low has been moving south across southern Illinois toward the Mississippi/Ohio River confluence. The current band of light to moderate showers across southern Indiana and central Kentucky will slowly shift south through the rest of the afternoon hours. As it approaches the southern forecast area, a few thunderstorms will be possible as a surface boundary re-establishes itself near our southwest CWA. So, as the afternoon and evening progresses, shower and/or thunderstorm coverage will diminish from north to south. Forecast soundings across the southwest CWA are not that impressive, with only brief gusty winds and heavy rainfall expected with any thunderstorm that develops. Today will be the best chance of area-wide precipitation through the next seven days. For tonight, skies will gradually clear with dry conditions and cooler temperatures. Overnight lows will range from the mid 50s to around 60 degrees. There could be some patchy fog formation in areas that receive precip as well as normally fog-prone locations if winds go calm and skies clear enough. There remains a chance of isolated showers across the northeastern portion of the forecast area Tuesday afternoon, as daytime heating combines with a weak shortwave passage. Once daytime heating subsides, will dry things out Tuesday night. Expect temperatures generally in the mid to upper 70s Tuesday, with overnight lows ranging roughly from the low to mid 50s. .Long Term (Wednesday through Monday)... Issued at 310 PM EDT Mon Jun 4 2012 Highly meridional upper air pattern is expected at the beginning of the forecast period with an upper trough on both US coasts and a large ridge across the central Plains. This will keep the Ohio Valley in a northwest flow pattern early in the period. Typically, northwest flow situations are tricky due to the models inability to properly time small mid-level perturbations moving through within the flow. However, the latest model trends are suggestive of a more stable and drier overall pattern, so the idea of an increasingly drier forecast is increasing. The previous runs suggested that a weak wave may skirt through the region on Wednesday possibly sparking off some afternoon/evening convection. However, both the GFS and Euro have backed off this solution quite a bit and are largely drier. For now, have kept a slight chance of shower/storm in the east on Wednesday. For the remainder of the week, the upper trough in the east is forecast to lift out and ridging over the central Plains will build in over the Ohio Valley. This will lead to dry conditions and increasingly warmer temperatures. Temperatures will be the coolest at the beginning of the period with highs on Wednesday warming into the mid-upper 70s and into the upper 70s to the lower 80s by Thursday. Lower to mid 80s temperatures should arrive by Friday followed by mid-upper 80s for Saturday. Overnight lows will generally be in the upper 50s to the lower 60s. Strong ridging should continue to be overhead for Sunday and Monday as a deep trough digs into the western CONUS. Both the GFS and Euro are hinting at some possible tropical development over the northwest Gulf by late next weekend which could bring copious amounts of much needed rainfall to the lower Mississippi delta region. The upper level pattern looks to become more progressive by early next week with the western CONUS trough heading east and the upper level ridge axis sliding off to the Mid-Atlantic region. This could allow moisture to increase across the region with whatever tropical system that possibly develops. Highs Sunday and Monday should warm into the upper 80s to the lower 90s with overnight lows in the upper 60s to the lower 70s. && .Aviation (06Z TAF Issuance)... Updated at 130 AM EDT Tue Jun 5 2012 Most problematic part of the forecast will be fog potential through daybreak. Mid-level cloud deck has cleared LEX in the last couple hrs, and will clear SDF shortly. With light winds and moist ground from the rains on Monday afternoon, fog developed quickly and LEX has socked in. Just a few miles from SDF, LOU also went VLIFR, but it is a tall order to fog SDF. Much drier air is poised just off to the N/NE, with dewpoints in the 40s as close as CVG. That said, have initialized LEX with its current dense fog, but expect some of that drier air and light NE wind to filter in by daybreak. Therefore will go for improving conditions starting around 09-10Z, and VFR by 12Z. SDF is less prone to dense fog, but will carry a TEMPO for IFR visibility a couple hours either side of sunrise. Showers and storms basically splitting BWG will continue their push to the south. Brief MVFR conditions are likely there but there is too much uncertainty as to when showers will impact the airfield. Currently have higher confidence in MVFR visibilities around daybreak when skies will clear off. Once we get through about mid-morning the rest of the valid TAF period will be VFR, with light NE winds and just a few diurnal Cu. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. KY...NONE. $$ Update...........RJS Short Term.......MJP Long Term........MJ Aviation.........RAS
FXUS63 KPAH 042350 AFDPAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 650 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 REVISED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAFS. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 133 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 SURFACE LOW JUST EAST OF KSTL WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SSE THIS EVENING AFTN...WITH THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. A CORRIDOR SLIGHT RISK AREA CONTINUES TO EXTEND FROM NEAR KSTL SOUTH ACROSS THE FA INTO WEST TENNESSEE. PRIMARY HAZARDS SHOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. DECENT CAPE VALUES BEING GENERATED BY THE MODELS...WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS INCREASING SLIGHTLY. SO THE POSSIBILITY SEEMS LEGIT. THE ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST OUT OF THE AREA DURING THE FIRST 1/2 OF TONIGHT. SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY AFTER MIDNIGHT...UNLESS THERE IS LINGERING CONVECTION ALONG THE KY/TN BORDER. DRY WEATHER FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. H5 RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. AND A DEEP LOW OFF THE NE COAST WILL KEEP THE REGION IN NNW FLOW ALOFT DURING THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE SLOWLY BUILDS SOUTH. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 133 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED WE ARE STILL IN A NW FLOW REGIME BUT LITTLE IF ANY ENERGY OR PERTURBATIONS WERE DETECTED BY THE LATEST OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS. HOWEVER THE GFS IS STILL FLIP FLOPPING WITH A HINT OF MOISTURE SUNDAY VS MONDAY 12Z MON RUN VS THE 6Z RUN RESPECTIVELY. THE CONSECUTIVE GFS RUNS DO INDICATE AT LEAST A DIRTY UPPER LEVEL HIGH BY SUNDAY WITH GULF MOISTURE RETURNING AS THE SURFACE HIGH MEANDERS OFF THE EAST COAST. HOWEVER THE 00Z SUN ECMWF HOLDS OFF WITH MAIN GULF MOISTURE UNTIL DAY 8. FOR NOW PLAN ON KEEPING FCST DRY UNLESS COLLABORATION OR THE INIT DICTATES OTHERWISE. AS FOR TEMPS EXPECT A SLOW WARMUP THROUGH 80S THIS WEEK FINALLY SOARING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 133 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 A FEW OF THE RAWS SITES ARE STILL FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS WHERE LITTLE TO NO RAIN HAD FALLEN AND WILL MONITOR CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLE HEIGHTENED FIRE WEATHER DANGER. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION...A FEW SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AT KEVV/KOWB WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AT KCGI/KPAH THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. WILL CONTINUE TO COVER WITH VCSH FOR NOW. A TREND TOWARDS CLEARING SKIES AND NORTHEAST WINDS WILL TAKE HOLD LATER TONIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL ON TUESDAY AS NORTHEAST WINDS PICK UP TO AROUND 10 KNOTS. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. MO...NONE. IN...NONE. KY...NONE. && $$
FLUS43 KGRR 040751 HWOGRR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 351 AM EDT MON JUN 4 2012 MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-050800- MASON-LAKE-OSCEOLA-CLARE-OCEANA-NEWAYGO-MECOSTA-ISABELLA-MUSKEGON- MONTCALM-GRATIOT-OTTAWA-KENT-IONIA-CLINTON-ALLEGAN-BARRY-EATON- INGHAM-VAN BUREN-KALAMAZOO-CALHOUN-JACKSON- 351 AM EDT MON JUN 4 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED. $$ LMZ844>849-050800- ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI-SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI- HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI-GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI- WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER MI-PENTWATER TO MANISTEE MI- 351 AM EDT MON JUN 4 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED. $$
FLUS43 KIWX 040956 HWOIWX HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 556 AM EDT MON JUN 4 2012 LMZ043-046-051000- NEW BUFFALO MI TO ST JOSEPH MI-MICHIGAN CITY IN TO NEW BUFFALO MI- 556 AM EDT MON JUN 4 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF SOUTHEASTERN LAKE MICHIGAN. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. && STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX/?N=MARINE $$ INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005- 015-016-024-025-051000- LA PORTE-ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-DE KALB-STARKE- PULASKI-MARSHALL-FULTON IN-KOSCIUSKO-WHITLEY-ALLEN IN-WHITE-CASS IN- MIAMI-WABASH-HUNTINGTON-WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD-JAY-BERRIEN- CASS MI-ST. JOSEPH MI-BRANCH-HILLSDALE-WILLIAMS-FULTON OH-DEFIANCE- HENRY-PAULDING-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...SOUTH BEND... MISHAWAKA...ELKHART...GOSHEN...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...ANGOLA... KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER...AUBURN...GARRETT...KNOX...NORTH JUDSON... WINAMAC...FRANCESVILLE...PLYMOUTH...BREMEN...ROCHESTER...WARSAW... WINONA LAKE...COLUMBIA CITY...SOUTH WHITLEY...FORT WAYNE... MONTICELLO...BROOKSTON...LOGANSPORT...PERU...WABASH... NORTH MANCHESTER...HUNTINGTON...BLUFFTON...OSSIAN...DECATUR... BERNE...MARION...HARTFORD CITY...MONTPELIER...PORTLAND...NILES... BENTON HARBOR...ST. JOSEPH...BUCHANAN...DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS... STURGIS...THREE RIVERS...COLDWATER...HILLSDALE...BRYAN...WAUSEON... ARCHBOLD...DEFIANCE...NAPOLEON...PAULDING...ANTWERP...OTTAWA... PANDORA...VAN WERT...DELPHOS...LIMA 556 AM EDT MON JUN 4 2012 /456 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2012/ THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OHIO... NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED. && STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX $$
FLUS43 KLOT 042041 HWOLOT HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 341 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 ILZ003>006-008-010>014-019>023-032-033-039-INZ001-002-010-011-019- 052045- WINNEBAGO-BOONE-MCHENRY-LAKE ILLINOIS-OGLE-LEE-DE KALB-KANE- DUPAGE-COOK-LA SALLE-KENDALL-GRUNDY-WILL-KANKAKEE-LIVINGSTON- IROQUOIS-FORD-LAKE INDIANA-PORTER-NEWTON-JASPER-BENTON- 341 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 /441 PM EDT MON JUN 4 2012/ THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS... NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY FOR FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NECESSARY THROUGH TONIGHT. && COMPLETE FORECAST INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE NWS CHICAGO WEBPAGE: WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO $$ LMZ740>745-052045- WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR- WILMETTE HARBOR TO NORTHERLY ISLAND- NORTHERLY ISLAND TO CALUMET HARBOR-CALUMET HARBOR TO GARY- GARY TO BURNS HARBOR-BURNS HARBOR TO MICHIGAN CITY- 341 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY FOR THE ILLINOIS NEARSHORE. && COMPLETE FORECAST INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE NWS CHICAGO WEBPAGE: WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO $$ LMZ080-261-362-364-366-563-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868- 870-872-874-876-878-052045- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM MICHIGAN CITY IN TO ST. JOSEPH MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SEUL CHOIX POINT TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN SOUTH OF A LINE FROM SEUL CHOIX POINT TO THE MACKINAC BRIDGE AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM CHARLEVOIX MI TO SOUTH FOX ISLAND 5 NM OFFSHORE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM CHARLEVOIX TO POINT BETSIE MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM POINT BETSIE TO MANISTEE MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE TO STURGEON BAY WI- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM STURGEON BAY TO TWO RIVERS WI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM TWO RIVERS TO SHEBOYGAN WI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR IL 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WILMETTE HARBOR IL TO MICHIGAN CITY IN 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM PENTWATER TO MANISTEE MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ST. JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- 341 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. && COMPLETE FORECAST INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE NWS CHICAGO WEBPAGE: WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO $$ SHEA
FLUS43 KIND 050207 HWOIND HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN 1007 PM EDT MON JUN 4 2012 INZ021-028>031-035>049-054>057-060215- CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HOWARD-FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY- BOONE-TIPTON-HAMILTON-MADISON-DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-VERMILLION-PARKE- PUTNAM-HENDRICKS-MARION-HANCOCK-HENRY-MORGAN-JOHNSON-SHELBY-RUSH- 1007 PM EDT MON JUN 4 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. OUTLOOK: NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HAZARDS: NONE. TIMING: NONE. DISCUSSION: HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. OUTLOOK: NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. DISCUSSION: DRY CONDITIONS WITH A WARMING TREND ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. && MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL LOWERCASE) $$ INZ051>053-060>065-067>072-060215- VIGO-CLAY-OWEN-SULLIVAN-GREENE-MONROE-BROWN-BARTHOLOMEW-DECATUR- KNOX-DAVIESS-MARTIN-LAWRENCE-JACKSON-JENNINGS- 1007 PM EDT MON JUN 4 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. OUTLOOK: PATCHY FOG. HAZARDS: PATCHY FOG...WITH LOCAL VISIBILITIES BELOW 1 MILE POSSIBLE. TIMING: THROUGH 800 AM. DISCUSSION: HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. LINGERING MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO PATCHY FOG. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. OUTLOOK: NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. DISCUSSION: DRY CONDITIONS WITH A WARMING TREND ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. && MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL LOWERCASE) $$
FLUS41 KILN 040802 HWOILN HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 402 AM EDT MON JUN 4 2012 INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046- 051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-050815- WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO- SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT- PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE- SHELBY-LOGAN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON- FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY- FAIRFIELD-BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-ROSS-HOCKING-HAMILTON-CLERMONT-BROWN- HIGHLAND-ADAMS-PIKE-SCIOTO- 402 AM EDT MON JUN 4 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL INDIANA...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...NORTHERN KENTUCKY...CENTRAL OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY OF OHIO...SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO...SOUTHWEST OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. $$
FLUS43 KLMK 042048 HWOLMK HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY 448 PM EDT MON JUN 4 2012 KYZ026-061-062-070>075-052100- OHIO KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY- ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY- 348 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACH THE REGION. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BRING DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...AS WELL AS BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. $$ INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>025-027>043-045>049-053>057- 063>067-076>078-081-082-052100- ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN- CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY- BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY- JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY- SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY- FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY- MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY- GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY- LINCOLN KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-CUMBERLAND KY- CLINTON KY- 448 PM EDT MON JUN 4 2012 /348 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012/ THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. $$ MJP/RJS
FLUS43 KPAH 041937 HWOPAH HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 236 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114-051000- JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON- WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE- HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH- WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES- LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL- UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN- MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER- RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID- 236 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY...AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT THERE CONTINUES TO BE A RISK FOR A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND WESTERN KENTUCKY. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS SHOULD BE SOUTHEAST UP TO 35 MPH. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTERS SHOULD MAINTAIN ALERT STATUS IN CASE THEIR ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. $$
FXUS63 KARX 050443 AFDARX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 1143 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT 245 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 FORECAST FOCUS REMAINS THE SMALL PCPN CHANCES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. CURRENT CONVECTION TO THE NORTH BEING FUELED BY LATE AFTERNOON INSTABILITY...WEAK FRONTOGENETICS...AND SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY. LARGE DIURNALLY DRIVEN ELEMENT TO THE SHOWERS/STORMS...AND EXPECT A DECREASING TREND AFTER SUNDOWN. HOWEVER...ENOUGH FORCING THAT THEY SHOULD LINGER INTO THE MID/LATE EVENING HOURS. UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY SEEN OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA VIA LATEST WATERVAPOR IMAGERY IS SLATED TO DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON TUE...PER 04.12Z GFS/NAM. NORTH-SOUTH RUNNING INSTABILITY AXIS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY THE AFTERNOON...AROUND THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...MORE FAVORED INTO WESTERN WI. AROUND 500-1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE...MORE ACROSS NORTHWEST WI. SOME HINTS OF NORTH-SOUTH RUNNING FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IN THIS CAPE AXIS...ALTHOUGH PRETTY MEAGER. NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE EITHER...WITH SATURATION MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE 900-700 MB LAYER VIA TIME/HEIGHT X-SECTIONS AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. SO...NOT MUCH DYNAMICS OR MOISTURE TO PLAY WITH...BUT WHEN ALL MIXED TOGETHER...IT SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE GREATER THREAT WILL BE DURING THE MID AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS...WITH AN INCREASED FOCUSED ACROSS THE NORTH...CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. THE FORECAST AREA STAYS UNDER THE CYCLONIC FLOW A LOFT ON WED...WITH VARIOUS MODELS INDICATING ELONGATED SHORTWAVE ENERGY STRETCHING ACROSS THE REGION. CAPE IS LESS AND NOT AS WELL DEFINED...PERHAPS 500 J/KG OF MUCAPE IN THE AFTERNOON. NAM PRODUCES SOME WEAK NORTH-SOUTH FRONTOGENETICS...SIMILAR TO WHAT IS EXPECTED ON TUE. THE GFS HAS LITTLE IF ANY BOTH TUE/WED. ALSO...THE GFS IS VERY DRY COMPARED TO A RATHER SATURATED 850-500 MB LAYER WED VIA THE NAM. NAM SEEMS OVERLY AGGRESSIVE...BUT PERHAPS A BIT TOO DRY IN THE GFS. BOTH MODELS POINT TO A WEAK WEST-EAST RUNNING WARM FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN MN/NORTHWEST WI ON WED...WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY IMPINGING INTO IT. THE GFS/NAM/ARXGFS ALL PRODUCE QPF IN THIS REGION. THINK THERE IS ENOUGH GOING ON THAT SMALL CHANCES ARE WARRANTED IN THE NORTH. TRIGGER SOUTH OF THERE IS HARD TO FIND...SO WILL LEAVE DRY FOR THE MOMENT. FOR THU...THIS WEAK WARM FRONT COULD SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR MORE PCPN DEVELOPMENT AS SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT PUSHES INTO IT. THIS COULD IMPACT THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE FORECAST AREA...MOSTLY IN THE AFTERNOON WHEN PEAK HEATING/INSTABILITY WILL BE A FACTOR. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE DRIVING INTO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS THU NIGHT...DRAGGING A SFC FRONT WILL IT. MODEL TRENDS FAVOR BRINGING THIS SYSTEM/S ASSOCIATED SHOWER/STORM CHANCES IN ON FRIDAY. MORE ON ITS POTENTIAL IN THE EXTENDED DISCUSSION BELOW. .LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY 245 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 GFS AND ECMWF STILL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BREAKING DOWN/TRANSITIONING THE OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN EAST FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. BOTH SPIN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE TOP OF THE RIDGE ON FRI/SAT...DRAGGING A SFC FRONT ALONG WITH IT. INSTABILITY BUILDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN ADDED TO THE MIX. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH BETTER CHANCES LIKELY TO THE NORTH...CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING...FRI/FRI NIGHT. STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR THE WEEKEND WITH A WARM FRONT HOLDING ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S LOOK LIKELY...WITH PERHAPS A FEW LOCATIONS TOUCHING 90. SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/EC WITH HOW QUICKLY THEY BRING THE WEST COAST TROUGH EAST. THE GFS IS FASTER...AND WOULD SLIDE AN ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT ACROSS THE REGION ON SUN-MON. THE SLOWER EC HOLDS IT OFF UNTIL MON-TUE. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH IN EITHER MODEL...CONSIDERING THE UNCERTAINTIES WITH BREAKING DOWN THE BLOCKING PATTERN. WILL LEAN ON CONSENSUS IN THIS TIME FRAME. && .AVIATION...THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY 1143 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS PASSED CLOSE TO KLSE THIS EVENING ADDING A LITTLE EXTRA MOISTURE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME FOG AND WILL CONTINUE THE BCFG AROUND SUNRISE. BOTH KLSE AND KRST SHOULD SEE MORE DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOP EITHER LATE TUESDAY MORNING OR EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THE 05.00Z NAM IS ONCE AGAIN SHOWING A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH COMING ACROSS THE AREA IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. AS THE INSTABILITY GROWS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON...SHOULD ONCE AGAIN SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOP. WILL GO WITH A PERSISTENCE FORECAST AND INCLUDE VCSH FOR KLSE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... 245 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...RIECK LONG TERM....RIECK AVIATION...04
FXUS63 KFSD 050345 AFDFSD AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD 1045 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 .DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 925 PM CDT/ FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK FOR TONIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TO OUR NORTH OVER NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO DROP OFF NICELY TONIGHT. THUS THE GOING LOWS A FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE LOOK GOOD. JUST MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY FORECAST. && .AVIATION.../FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE/ VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND THROUGH TUESDAY. && PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT/ QUIET NIGHT AHEAD AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY WORKS EAST. WILL GO A LITTLE LOWER THAN GUIDANCE AS THE AIR APPEARS A LITTLE DRIER THAN FORECAST AND GUIDANCE LOWS...AT LEAST OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA RUNNING WARMER THAN THIS MORNING...WHICH DOES NOT SEEM REASONABLE. WILL SEE SOME MINOR SOUTHEAST RETURN FLOW SET UP LATE TONIGHT WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY SO LOWS COULD OCCUR A LITTLE EARLIER THERE. BASICALLY AIMING FOR 53 TO 57 EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND 55 TO 60 TO THE WEST. TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER WARM AND PLEASANT DAY AS SOUTHEAST WINDS GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER TO BE CONCERNED ABOUT SO FULL POTENTIAL ON WARMING EXPECTED. WENT CLOSEST TO THE WMODEL OUTPUT ALONG WITH THE NAM12 AND GEM WHICH SEEM TO BE DOING THE BEST AT THIS TIME FRAME. WHILE MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY MIXING WILL BE MARGINALLY LIMITED BY THE EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND...SO SHOULD BE 80 TO 85 EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND 85 TO 90 TO THE WEST. /08 QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THERMAL PROFILES SIMILAR TO MONDAY NIGHT...THOUGH WITH WINDS JUST A TOUCH HIGHER LOWS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER...A DEGREE OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF 60. ANOTHER WARM DAY ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE REGION SITUATED UNDER AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. CANNOT RULE OUT CONVECTION DEVELOPING ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN OUR WEST WITH INCREASING THETA E ADVECTION AND INSTABILITY OVER THAT AREA AS A WEAK MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE/SURFACE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH THE SYSTEM SO KEPT POPS ON THE LOW SIDE...IN ADDITION TO THE FACT THAT MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST ON LOCATION AND TIMING OF SHORTWAVE. HIGHS LOOK TO BE MAINLY LOWER TO MID 80S. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN ON THURSDAY...WITH CONVECTION AGAIN POSSIBLE IN OUR WEST WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE RESIDE...AND NAM/ECMWF WANTING TO BREAK OUT CONVECTION IN OUR FAR EAST AS A VORT LOBE SWINGS SOUTHWARD AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE NATION. AGAIN...CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES. WITH MORE CLOUDINESS ON THURSDAY HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY...IN THE LOWER 80S. A LITTLE STRONGER SHORTWAVE DROPS ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY ON FRIDAY BRINGING A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF CONVECTION...MORE SO IN OUR NORTH. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A WARMER DAY AS SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S. FARTHER INTO THE EXTENDED...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REESTABLISHES ITSELF FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A DRY PERIOD WITH VERY WARM TEMPERATURES. WITH 850 MB TEMPS AVERAGING AROUND 20 TO 26 DEGREES C HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR SATURDAY...AND THEN MAYBE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER ON SUNDAY WITH MORE CLOUDS. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF IN AGREEMENT ON BRINGING A BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AT THAT TIME AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TO FOLLOW. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$
FXUS63 KDMX 050448 AFDDMX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA 1148 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 .SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT/ ONE WEAK SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE REGION OVER SOUTHEAST IOWA WHILE ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE OVER WESTERN WI/EASTERN MN DROPS SOUTH THIS EVENING. MAIN AREA OF INSTABILITY TRACKING INTO NORTHERN MO FOR NOW WITH THE SOUTHERN WAVE WHILE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR HAS BEEN PUSHING INTO THE AREA. FORCING AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE MAY BE ENOUGH TO SPARK SOME SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHEAST SECTIONS THIS EVENING...BUT COVERAGE APPEARS LIMITED. 4KM WRF SUGGESTS SOME SHOWERS OR ISO THUNDER MAY DEVELOP OVER MN AND MOVE SOUTH INTO THE REGION BETWEEN 03 AND 06Z. BUILDING CU ARE ALREADY FORMING NEAR MINNEAPOLIS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE MID 50S ACROSS NORTHEAST SECTIONS WITH LOWER 60S CENTRAL AND WEST. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATER AFTER BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES. .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS WITH TEMPS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND POPS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PROVIDING SOME STAGNANT WEATHER DURING MUCH OF THE WEEK AND LEANED TOWARD A BLEND. TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OF THE CENTRAL U.S. AND NO MAJOR SYSTEMS ANTICIPATED WITH THE LIGHT AND DISORGANIZED FLOW. MAY SEE A FEW ISOLATED POP-UP AFTERNOON TSTM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OVER NORTHERN IOWA. OTHERWISE...TEMPS LOOK TO REMAIN PERSISTENT IN THE LOWER 80S FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH LOWS DROPPING OFF INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S AS DEW POINTS LOOK TO REMAIN FAIRLY DRY. NEXT BEST CHANCE OF POPS WILL BE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE. LOW CONFIDENCE WITH ANYTHING WIDESPREAD WRT TO SEVERE AS VERY LIMITED SHEAR AND INSTABILITY PRESENT. BEST POPS ARE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA CO-LOCATED WITH THE BEST FORCING. SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY MONDAY AND PLACE MUCH OF IOWA WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. VERY GOOD DEEP AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR PRESENT AS WELL AS PLENTY OF SURFACE AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY. THIS LOOKS TO BE OUR BEST SHOT AS ANY WIDESPREAD SEVERE CONVECTION AND WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS IF THE MODELS KEEP WITH THIS TREND. && .AVIATION...05/06Z WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE STATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT EASTERLY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES AROUND SUNRISE. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...REV LONG TERM...KLP AVIATION...MS JUN 12
FXUS63 KDVN 050435 AFDDVN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL 1135 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUE EVE... AND LIKELY BEYOND AS GREAT LAKES SFC RIDGING DOMINATES. WINDS WILL BECOME E/SE AT GENERALLY 4-9 KTS. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012/ SYNOPSIS... 12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS A WEAK TROF FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BACK ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WAS ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. NOCTURNAL CONVECTION HAS PRODUCED 850MB DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TEENS ACROSS ILLINOIS. SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON SHOW CONVECTION CONTINUING WITH THE WEAK WAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH ILLINOIS. THE DAKOTAS WAVE WAS TRYING TO INITIATE SOME CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA. 18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAD A WEAK LOW NEAR KPPQ WITH AN INVERTED TROF RUNNING BACK INTO CENTRAL IOWA. A LAKE INDUCED COLD FRONT WAS ACROSS THE EASTERN PARTS OF WISCONSIN AND NORTHEAST ILLINOIS. A WEAK TROF RAN FROM SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 60S FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND OHIO VALLEY SOUTH WHILE 40S AND 50S WERE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE GREAT LAKES. SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY... THE QUESTION IS WILL CONVECTION FIRE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND THEN LINGER INTO THE EVENING. RAP TRENDS INDICATE THAT TEMPERATURES ARE EITHER AT OR JUST BELOW CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR CONVECTION WOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE INVERTED TROF ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CWFA BUT TEMPERATURES THERE ARE WELL BELOW THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE. SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW WEAK CU DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWFA. SO...UNLESS SOMETHING DEVELOPS IN THE NEXT 2.5 HRS ON SOME LOCALIZED SFC CONVERGENCE IT APPEARS THAT THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WILL REMAIN DRY. LATER TONIGHT THE DAKOTA SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT OVERLY STEEP AND THERE IS NO SFC CONVERGENCE TO HELP GET ANYTHING GOING. THUS OTHER THAN SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT SHOULD BE DRY AS WELL. TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD BE DRY WITH JUST PASSING CLOUDS FROM THE SHORTWAVE/VORT MAX. FCST MAX TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY ARE EITHER AT OR JUST BELOW THE PROJECTED CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES. THE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER WEAK WAVE/VORT MAX MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH MINNESOTA BY MID AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE MIGHT PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO GENERATE SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION THAT MOVES INTO THE HWY 20 CORRIDOR WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI BY VERY LATE AFTERNOON. 08 LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY... TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...STILL FEEL A COOL NIGHT/BELOW GUIDANCE IN STORE TO START OFF THE PERIOD WITH...IF ENOUGH CLEARING OCCURS UNDER CHANNELED VORT SHUTTLE ALOFT. SOME LOWS IN THE 40S POSSIBLE...WITH MANY LOWER 50S ELSEWHERE. ONGOING DRY AIRMASS AND WEAK INSTABILITY/FORCING REGIME ON WED CONTINUES TO SUPPORT ONGOING DRY FCST...NICE DAY WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80. CLEARING AND SEASONABLY COOL AGAIN WED NIGHT WITH SFC RIDGE AXIS PUSHING WEST SOME FROM THE GRT LKS. LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST INLAND BUILDING UPPER JET/WAVE ENERGY TO SHUNT BRUNT OF OMEGA BLOCKING UPPER RIDGE ACRS THE PLAINS AND UPPER MS RVR VALLEY BY LATE IN THE PERIOD/FRI MORNING. WHILE MCS/S FLARE UP ACRS THE NORTH HALF OF THE PLAINS AS A RESULT..THE LOCAL AREA TO REMAIN DRY THRU FRI MORNING WITH SOME SLIGHT THERMAL MODERATION. FRIDAY...BETTER TEMP RECOVER WITH INCREASED RETURN FLOW FRI WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 80S. DESPITE SOME MODELS TILTING UPPER RIDGE OFF TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION ENOUGH TO SPILL SOME OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS/MN MCS ACTIVITY DOWN TOWARD THE AREA FRI OR FRI NIGHT...FEEL THE RIDGE WILL BE PUMPED UP ENOUGH TO PREVENT THIS PROPAGATION TRAJECTORY AND DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST INTO SAT WHILE IT/S ROCK AND ROLL TIME FROM THE DAKOTAS...ACRS SOUTHERN CANADA AND TO THE NORTHWESTERN GRT LKS. SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...LONGER RANGE ENSEMBLES AS WELL AS THE NEW ECMWF SUGGEST BUILDING HEAT DOME WITH AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGING TO REIGN ACRS THE UPPER MIDWEST/MID AND UPPER MS RVR VALLEYS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. INCREASING LLVL WARM AND MORE MOIST FETCH NOW SUPPORT HIGHS ON SAT IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90...WITH SUNDAY POSSIBLY IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. WILL NOT ADVERTISE THOSE EXTREMES YET...BUT THE SUNDAY WARM SIGNAL HAS BEEN CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. MAIN STORM/MCS TRACK WILL LOOK TO BE MID TO LATE SUMMER-LIKE FROM THE HIGH PLAINS...TO ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER REGION OR EVEN FURTHER NORTH. WESTERN WAVE ENERGY SURGE TO EVENTUALLY BE REALIZED UP OVER THE RIDGE WITH A GREATLY DAMPENING EFFECT ON THE BLOCKED PATTERN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEASONABLY STRONG AND DEEPENING CYCLONE PUSHING ACRS CENTRAL CANADA WILL HAVE TO SHUNT A FRONT THROUGH THE REGION SOMETIME...WITH THE LATEST RUNS HINTING AT MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. EVEN THE PREVIOUSLY QUICKER GFS WITH THIS PROCESS HAS SLOWED TO THE CONSISTENT ECMWF IN TARGETING MON NIGH AND TUES AS THE NEXT MAIN PRECIP WINDOW. EXTENT OF CURRENTLY PROGGED MOISTURE FETCH/CONVEYOR UP OFF THE WESTERN GULF COULD FUEL LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH STORMS COMPLEX THAT GET GENERATED BY THIS FROPA. IF FRONT STALL ACRS THE AREA...A PROLONGED STORMY PERIOD COULD PERSIST WELL INTO MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. 12 && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...NONE. IL...NONE. MO...NONE. && $$
FXUS63 KOAX 050414 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 1114 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 .AVIATION... 06Z TAFS FOR KOMA..KLNK...KOFK VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES SURFACE AND ALOFT. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012/ DISCUSSION... WV IMAGERY LOOP WAS SHOWING SYSTEM DIGGING DOWN THE WEST COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH SEVERAL PIECES OF ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE NEAR CNTRL CA GETTING EJECTED TO THE CNTRL GREAT BASIN. MEANWHILE IMAGERY WAS SHOWING A BUILDING RIDGE QUICKLY AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE ROCKIES WITH INCREASING HGT RISES SPREADING ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS. AT THE SFC...WEDGE OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WAS STRETCHING ALL THE WAY SOUTH TO TX/OK. GOING FCST IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE AND LATEST MODELS INDICATING LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED. LARGE SCALE FLOW OVER THE CONUS IS STILL PROGGED TO BECOME STAGNANT WITH A NARROW UPPER RIDGE FROM THE CNTRL STATES INTO CNTRL CANADA ANCHORED BY TWO LARGE STORM SYSTEMS OVER BOTH U.S. COASTAL REGIONS. INITIAL GULF MOISTURE SURGE WILL OCCUR UP ALONG THE WRN HIGH PLAINS THEN EVENTUALLY SPREAD EWD LATE THURSDAY WHEN FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO A MORE-OR-LESS WEST-TO-EAST ORIENTATION. AT THIS POINT THE NAM BECOMES THE OUTLIER TRYING TO SHOVE A COLD FRONT THRU THE DAKOTAS ON THURSDAY WHILE THE GFS/ECM/CMC SHOW WEAK AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE IN ERN WY WITH ASSOCIATED WARM SECTOR EXTENDING ALL THE WAY NORTH INTO CANADA. IT APPEARS THAT PCPN CHANCES WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL STILL BE DICTATED BY EVENTAL POSITION OF BDRY LYR MOISTURE CONVG ZONE...WHICH GENERALLY REMAIN ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CWA. FRIDAY THRU MONDAY...PCPN CHANCES INITALLY REVOLVING AROUND A LIFTING WARM FRONT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COLD FRONT SWEEPING SWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS EARLY MONDAY MORNING. ALSO...WITH GOOD MOISTURE RETURN ANTICIPATED...CONDITIONS SHOULD TURN RATHER HUMID HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. DEE && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ FOBERT
FLUS43 KARX 041000 HWOARX HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 500 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-032>034- 041>044-053>055-061-051100- ADAMS-ALLAMAKEE-BUFFALO-CHICKASAW-CLARK-CLAYTON-CRAWFORD-DODGE- FAYETTE-FILLMORE-FLOYD-GRANT-HOUSTON-HOWARD-JACKSON-JUNEAU-LA CROSSE- MITCHELL-MONROE-MOWER-OLMSTED-RICHLAND-TAYLOR-TREMPEALEAU-VERNON- WABASHA-WINNESHIEK-WINONA- 500 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING. NONE OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING... AND FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME...IT IS TOO EARLY TO DISCERN WHETHER ANY OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME SEVERE. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. .EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION... NO WEBINAR IS SCHEDULED. $$ BOYNE
FLUS43 KFSD 040936 HWOFSD HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD 426 AM CDT MON JUN 04 2012 SDZ038>040-050-052>071-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-098- IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-NEZ013-014-051200- AURORA-BEADLE-BON HOMME-BROOKINGS-BRULE-BUENA VISTA IA- CHARLES MIX-CHEROKEE IA-CLAY-CLAY IA-COTTONWOOD MN-DAKOTA NE- DAVISON-DICKINSON IA-DIXON NE-DOUGLAS-GREGORY-HANSON-HUTCHINSON- IDA IA-JACKSON MN-JERAULD-KINGSBURY-LAKE-LINCOLN-LINCOLN MN- LYON IA-LYON MN-MCCOOK-MINER-MINNEHAHA-MOODY-MURRAY MN-NOBLES MN- OBRIEN IA-OSCEOLA IA-PIPESTONE MN-PLYMOUTH IA-ROCK MN-SANBORN- SIOUX IA-TURNER-UNION-WOODBURY IA-YANKTON- 426 AM CDT MON JUN 04 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA... SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...NORTHWEST IOWA...AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT FLOODING... MINOR FLOODING ON THE LITTLE SIOUX RIVER FROM SPENCER TO NEAR LINN GROVE IS EXPECTED TO END BY EARLY THIS WEEK. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT. && FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SIOUXFALLS. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. $$
FLUS43 KDMX 050406 HWODMX HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA 1106 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 IAZ004-060415- EMMET- 1106 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT A FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST FORK DES MOINES RIVER NEAR ESTHERVILLE. PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/DESMOINES FOR MORE INFORMATION. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS LOW AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. $$ IAZ005>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-044>050-057>062-070>075-081>086- 092>097-060415- KOSSUTH-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-PALO ALTO-HANCOCK-CERRO GORDO-POCAHONTAS- HUMBOLDT-WRIGHT-FRANKLIN-BUTLER-BREMER-SAC-CALHOUN-WEBSTER-HAMILTON- HARDIN-GRUNDY-BLACK HAWK-CRAWFORD-CARROLL-GREENE-BOONE-STORY- MARSHALL-TAMA-AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-DALLAS-POLK-JASPER-POWESHIEK-CASS- ADAIR-MADISON-WARREN-MARION-MAHASKA-ADAMS-UNION-CLARKE-LUCAS-MONROE- WAPELLO-TAYLOR-RINGGOLD-DECATUR-WAYNE-APPANOOSE-DAVIS- 1106 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS LOW AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. $$
FLUS43 KDVN 040833 HWODVN HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL 333 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007- 009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-050845- BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-BENTON-LINN-JONES-JACKSON-IOWA-JOHNSON- CEDAR-CLINTON-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-KEOKUK-WASHINGTON-LOUISA-JEFFERSON- HENRY IA-DES MOINES-VAN BUREN-LEE-JO DAVIESS-STEPHENSON-CARROLL- WHITESIDE-ROCK ISLAND-HENRY IL-BUREAU-PUTNAM-MERCER-HENDERSON- WARREN-HANCOCK-MCDONOUGH-SCOTLAND-CLARK- 333 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EAST CENTRAL IOWA...NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY. HOWEVER SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TUESDAY...ISOLATED...MAINLY AFTERNOON...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. ANY STORMS WILL NOT BE SEVERE. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE IF THERE IS A RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT. $$ HAASE/NICHOLS
FLUS43 KOAX 042131 HWOOAX HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 431 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034- 042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-051145- MONONA-HARRISON-SHELBY-POTTAWATTAMIE-MILLS-MONTGOMERY-FREMONT- PAGE-KNOX-CEDAR-THURSTON-ANTELOPE-PIERCE-WAYNE-BOONE-MADISON- STANTON-CUMING-BURT-PLATTE-COLFAX-DODGE-WASHINGTON-BUTLER- SAUNDERS-DOUGLAS-SARPY-SEWARD-LANCASTER-CASS-OTOE-SALINE- JEFFERSON-GAGE-JOHNSON-NEMAHA-PAWNEE-RICHARDSON- 431 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST IOWA...WEST CENTRAL IOWA...EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS SEVERAL WEATHER DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TONIGHT OR TUESDAY. $$ FOBERT
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FXUS63 KEAX 050450 AFDEAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 1147 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 ...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION... .DISCUSSION... Short Term (Tonight-Wednesday) Quiet weather is expected through the middle of the week as a blocking pattern sets up across the country. This afternoon, an upper level ridge continued to build across the Rocky Mountains region and into the central U.S. The ridge will firmly stay in place through the period as two upper level troughs develop over the Pacific and Atlantic coastlines. With a surface low tracking southeast of the forecast area this afternoon, high pressure over the Northern Plains will shift southward into the Central Plains. The combination of this dry airmass and the upper ridge should keep precipitation out of the region. As the center of the high tracks toward the Great Lakes region by Wednesday, winds will gradually veer from northeasterly winds overnight to an easterly flow for Tuesday and Wednesday. These winds will help to cool temperatures down from the mild conditions experienced today. However, afternoon highs will still be a few degrees above normal, in the low/mid 80s, and overnight lows generally in the low/mid 60s. ACH Medium Range (Thursday through Monday)... Early part of the medium range forecast will be dominated by omega-like blocking pattern currently establishing itself over the mid-section of the US. However models are advertising some changes towards the beginning of next week as western US trough begins to make some headway into the northern Plains. Until that time at or above normal temperatures can be expected. Although in general precipitation chances should remain quite low through Sunday, it is not out of the question that a weak impulse moving through the mean northwest flow could impact north central and northeast Missouri on Thursday night. Chances appear to be too low at this time to include in the forecast. As the upper level blocking pattern begins to break down Sunday night into Monday the threat for precipitation should start to increase, particularly over northwest Missouri. MJM && .AVIATION... For the 06Z TAFs: Surface high pressure extending down from the Great Lakes will maintain clear skies through the upcoming 12 hour period. Will need to monitor for the potential of light fog development as we move through the overnight hours. boundary layer moisture has crept back up this evening, however feel that mixing within the lower levels may prohibit extensive fog formation. Will include a brief period of MVFR fog into the morning for STJ. Tuesday will be pleasant with a light east northeast wind continuing. There may be a bit of afternoon cu develop, but will hold off on including at this taf issuance. Dux && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ WFO EAX
FXUS63 KLSX 050416 AFDLSX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO 1116 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 735 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 THE SURFACE LOW HAS CONTINUED TO SINK SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI AS OF 00Z. THE AREA OF GREATEST INSTABILITY HAS ALSO MOVED SOUTH OF THE REGION...WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS THIS EVENING OVER SOUTHWESTERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE DUE TO WEAK DEEP FORCING AND LACK OF SHEAR. OTHERWISE...PREVIOUS FORECAST CONTINUES TO TREND WELL THIS EVENING...WITH COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. JP && .SHORT TERM... ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 (TONIGHT) SURFACE LOW IS JUST NORTHWEST OF ST. LOUIS AS OF 19Z...AND INCREASING INSTABILITY AND CONVERGENCE NEAR THIS FEATURE HAS FINALLY INITIATED THUNDERSTORMS. SCATTERED STRONG TO OCCASIONALLY SEVERE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MIGRATE SE ALONG BOUNDARY THAT STRETCHES FROM THE LOW INTO SE PARTS OF OUR CWA...FUELED BY MLCAPES 2000-3000 J/KG POOLED ALONG AND WEST OF BOUNDARY. HAVE ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #353 FOR CENTRAL AND SE PARTS OF OUR CWA...INCLUDING STL METRO...THROUGH 03Z...ALTHOUGH THREAT WILL PROBABLY EXIT OUR CWA DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE...HOT AND HUMID WEATHER EARLY THIS EVENING WILLL GIVE WAY TO COOLER AND DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S FAR EAST TO THE LOW 60S OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MO. BYRD/TRUETT && .LONG TERM... ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 (TUESDAY-MONDAY) SHORT AND MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT STRONG OMEGA BLOCK WILL KEEP THE UA PATTERN LOCKED DOWN ACROSS THE CONUS INTO THURSDAY. AS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED FOR SEVERAL DAYS THIS SHOULD MEAN TRANQUIL EARLY JUNE WEATHER FOR THE CWA...WITH RELATIVELY MILD DAYS...SEASONABLY COOL NIGHTS...AND LITTLE IF ANY THREAT OF RAIN. GIVEN THE DRY NATURE OF THE AMS AND LACK OF SOIL MOISTURE HAVE TRIED TO DEPICT A FAIRLY PRONOUNCED DIURNAL TEMP SWING...WITH DAYTIME TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE GUIDANCE AND MINS NEAR THE 12Z MOS...WHICH IS SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN GUIDANCE OF THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. HEADING INTO THE LAST PART OF THE WEEK THE UPPER LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES FINALLY NUDGES EAST...WHICH ALLOWS RIDGING TO BUILD INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE BY FRIDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEKENED AS PERSISTENT E-NE WINDS OF TUESDAY-THURSDAY ARE REPLACED BY A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW...AND LATEST GUIDANCE SEEMS TO DEPICT THIS TREND WELL. PRECIPITATION THREAT SHOULD ALSO REMAIN QUITE LOW DURING THE PATTERN SHIFT. THERE IS AGREEMENT THAT A SHORTWAVE WILL BE TOP AND FLATTEN RIDGE ON FRIDAY...AND WE ARE GETTING TO THAT TIME OF YEAR WHERE WE NEED TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR RIDGE-RUNNING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES. HOWEVER WITH DYNAMICS OF THIS FEATURE STILL FOCUSED SO FAR N WILL MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST AT THIS TIME. ONE FEATURE OF NOTE IS UPPER LOW THAT GETS STUCK BENEATH THE PLAINS RIDGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DRIFT THIS LOW EAST FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK...WITH MOVEMENT PICKING UP A BIT OF A NORTHWARD COMPONENT BY THE START OF NEXT WEEK AS IT IS CAPTURED BY WEST SIDE OF UPPER RIDGE. WILL NOT INTRODUCE ANY PRECIPITATION YET WITH THIS FEATURE GIVEN UNCERTAINTY ON ITS EXACT MOVEMENT...BUT IT BEARS WATCHING. TRUETT && .AVIATION... ISSUED AT 1057 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 MOST OF THE LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND 5000-7000 FT IN THE ST LOUIS METRO AREA SHOULD ADVECT S OF THE TAF SITES BY 06Z TUE. MAY BE SOME PATCHY MID LEVEL CLOUDS DROPPING SWD INTO OUR AREA TUE MRNG... PLUS FEW-SCT DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS LATE TUE MRNG AND AFTN. SFC RIDGE WILL BUILD SWWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO OUR AREA WITH MAINLY NELY SFC WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...CLOUDS AROUND 7000 FT SHOULD MOVE S OF STL BY 06Z TUE. FEW-SCT DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS SHOULD DEVELOP LATE TUE MRNG AND AFTN. THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS DROPPING SWD THROUGH STL AREA ON TUE WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES DROPPING S-SEWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION. NELY SFC WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...INCREASING TO ABOUT 9-10 KTS TUE AFTN. GKS && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...NONE. IL...NONE. && $$ WFO LSX
FXUS63 KPAH 042350 AFDPAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 650 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 REVISED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAFS. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 133 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 SURFACE LOW JUST EAST OF KSTL WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SSE THIS EVENING AFTN...WITH THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. A CORRIDOR SLIGHT RISK AREA CONTINUES TO EXTEND FROM NEAR KSTL SOUTH ACROSS THE FA INTO WEST TENNESSEE. PRIMARY HAZARDS SHOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. DECENT CAPE VALUES BEING GENERATED BY THE MODELS...WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS INCREASING SLIGHTLY. SO THE POSSIBILITY SEEMS LEGIT. THE ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST OUT OF THE AREA DURING THE FIRST 1/2 OF TONIGHT. SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY AFTER MIDNIGHT...UNLESS THERE IS LINGERING CONVECTION ALONG THE KY/TN BORDER. DRY WEATHER FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. H5 RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. AND A DEEP LOW OFF THE NE COAST WILL KEEP THE REGION IN NNW FLOW ALOFT DURING THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE SLOWLY BUILDS SOUTH. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 133 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED WE ARE STILL IN A NW FLOW REGIME BUT LITTLE IF ANY ENERGY OR PERTURBATIONS WERE DETECTED BY THE LATEST OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS. HOWEVER THE GFS IS STILL FLIP FLOPPING WITH A HINT OF MOISTURE SUNDAY VS MONDAY 12Z MON RUN VS THE 6Z RUN RESPECTIVELY. THE CONSECUTIVE GFS RUNS DO INDICATE AT LEAST A DIRTY UPPER LEVEL HIGH BY SUNDAY WITH GULF MOISTURE RETURNING AS THE SURFACE HIGH MEANDERS OFF THE EAST COAST. HOWEVER THE 00Z SUN ECMWF HOLDS OFF WITH MAIN GULF MOISTURE UNTIL DAY 8. FOR NOW PLAN ON KEEPING FCST DRY UNLESS COLLABORATION OR THE INIT DICTATES OTHERWISE. AS FOR TEMPS EXPECT A SLOW WARMUP THROUGH 80S THIS WEEK FINALLY SOARING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 133 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 A FEW OF THE RAWS SITES ARE STILL FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS WHERE LITTLE TO NO RAIN HAD FALLEN AND WILL MONITOR CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLE HEIGHTENED FIRE WEATHER DANGER. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION...A FEW SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AT KEVV/KOWB WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AT KCGI/KPAH THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. WILL CONTINUE TO COVER WITH VCSH FOR NOW. A TREND TOWARDS CLEARING SKIES AND NORTHEAST WINDS WILL TAKE HOLD LATER TONIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL ON TUESDAY AS NORTHEAST WINDS PICK UP TO AROUND 10 KNOTS. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. MO...NONE. IN...NONE. KY...NONE. && $$
FXUS63 KSGF 050506 AFDSGF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO 1206 AM CDT TUE JUN 5 2012 ...UPDATE TO AVIATION... .UPDATE... /ISSUED 755 PM CDT/ CONVECTION HAS HAD A HARD TIME GETTING GOING THIS EVENING. SOME WEAK UPDRAFTS HAVE POPPED UP ALONG A WEAK BOUNDARY NOTED BY A DECENT LINE OF CU ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR JOPLIN TO LEBANON TO ROLLA. SURFACE WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH ACROSS THE REGION AND ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS INDICATE...FOR THE MOST PART...THE MAIN FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE OUTLOOK AREA. DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS AND WEAK SHEAR HAS REALLY KEPT DEVELOPMENT DOWN ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI. FOR THE MEAN TIME...PUT IN A MENTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDER FOR THE CURRENT CONVECTION THROUGH THE SUNSET AS THAT BOUNDARY SINKS SOUTH ACROSS THE OZARKS. ANY LOCATIONS LUCKY ENOUGH TO GET AN UPDRAFT TO FORM OVERHEAD...WILL GET A BRIEF...BUT MUCH NEEDED SHOWER. KURTZ && .DISCUSSION... 12Z GFS/40 KM WRF HAVE MAINTAINED GOOD INTERMODEL AGREEMENT AND RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE 00Z ECM ENHANCING CONFIDENCE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. FORECAST CHALLENGE IS LARGELY WITHIN THE NEAR TERM AS SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THE EXTENT OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING... SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI CONTINUES TO SLIDE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW AND A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. ISENTROPIC DOWN GLIDE AND DRY MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS ALSO SPREADING SOUTH INTO THE AREA...WHICH WILL HELP TO LIMIT WIDESPREAD CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW INSTABILITY TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE CAP PRETTY MUCH ERODING ACROSS THE EASTERN OZARKS INTO EASTERN MISSOURI. THE BETTER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE AREA WHERE THE BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED. THERE MAY BUT JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...PREDOMINANTLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 63 TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS TO DEVELOP. THERE WILL BE A LIMITED RISK IN THIS AREA FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS DEVELOPING WITH THE MAIN RISK BEING LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HIGHS TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL MATCH CLIMATOLOGY...THEN A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY. THE ECM IS A BIT QUICKER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AS HEIGHTS START TO CLIMB WITH THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING EASTWARD. NOTE THAT H8 TEMPERATURES ARE SLOW TO CLIMB WITH THE EASTERLY WINDS WHICH WILL LIMIT THIS WARMING SO TRENDED CLOSER TO THE GFS WEDNESDAY THEN COMPROMISED ON THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AS THE RIDGE BUILDS AND A SURFACE HIGH SETTLES SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO TN VALLEY. THE ECM AND GFS DEPICT A SHORT WAVE BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE SOMEWHAT ON FRIDAY...BUT THE SURFACE HIGH WILL KEEP THE GULF SHUT OFF SO ANY RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. A SECOND WAVE WILL MAKE GREATER IMPACT ON THE RIDGE LATE IN THE WEEKEND JUST AS THE SURFACE HIGH EXITS INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. RETURN FLOW WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO FLOW NORTHWARD INTO THE PLAINS POSSIBLY SETTING UP A RAIN EVENT EARLY NEXT WEEK. WISE/RUNNELS && .AVIATION... /ISSUED 1206 AM CDT TUE JUN 5 2012/ FOR THE 06Z TAFS (JLN/SGF/BBG)...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND BEYOND. COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT FOG TOWARD SUNRISE...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL VEER FROM NORTHWEST TO EASTERLY THROUGH THE FORECAST CYCLE. GAGAN && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$
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FLUS43 KEAX 042259 HWOEAX HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 558 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040- 043>046-053-054-051100- ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS- ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER- HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON- CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON- RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS- COOPER-BATES-HENRY- 558 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED. $$ BOOKBINDER
FLUS43 KLSX 050402 HWOLSX HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO 1102 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027- 034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-051130- GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL- MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL- CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX MO- LEWIS MO-SHELBY MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-RALLS MO-PIKE MO-BOONE MO- AUDRAIN MO-MONITEAU MO-COLE MO-OSAGE MO-CALLAWAY MO-MONTGOMERY MO- LINCOLN MO-GASCONADE MO-WARREN MO-ST. CHARLES MO-FRANKLIN MO- ST. LOUIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-JEFFERSON MO-CRAWFORD MO- WASHINGTON MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-IRON MO- MADISON MO-REYNOLDS MO- 1102 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TONIGHT. $$ JP
FLUS43 KPAH 041937 HWOPAH HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 236 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114-051000- JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON- WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE- HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH- WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES- LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL- UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN- MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER- RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID- 236 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY...AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT THERE CONTINUES TO BE A RISK FOR A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND WESTERN KENTUCKY. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS SHOULD BE SOUTHEAST UP TO 35 MPH. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTERS SHOULD MAINTAIN ALERT STATUS IN CASE THEIR ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. $$
FLUS43 KSGF 050115 AAA HWOSGF HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO 815 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-060115- BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON- ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS- LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON- LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE- TANEY-OZARK-OREGON- 815 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED... LIMITED LIGHTNING RISK. DISCUSSION... ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 10 PM FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR AS A WEAK FRONT SLIDES SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. MOST LOCATIONS WILL NOT BE AFFECTED BY THIS ACTIVITY. THOSE THAT DO ENCOUNTER A STORM CAN EXPECT A FEW CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AND A BRIEF DOWNPOUR OF RAIN. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT. && THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE) $$ GAGAN
FXUS63 KFSD 050345 AFDFSD AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD 1045 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 .DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 925 PM CDT/ FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK FOR TONIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TO OUR NORTH OVER NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO DROP OFF NICELY TONIGHT. THUS THE GOING LOWS A FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE LOOK GOOD. JUST MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY FORECAST. && .AVIATION.../FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE/ VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND THROUGH TUESDAY. && PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT/ QUIET NIGHT AHEAD AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY WORKS EAST. WILL GO A LITTLE LOWER THAN GUIDANCE AS THE AIR APPEARS A LITTLE DRIER THAN FORECAST AND GUIDANCE LOWS...AT LEAST OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA RUNNING WARMER THAN THIS MORNING...WHICH DOES NOT SEEM REASONABLE. WILL SEE SOME MINOR SOUTHEAST RETURN FLOW SET UP LATE TONIGHT WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY SO LOWS COULD OCCUR A LITTLE EARLIER THERE. BASICALLY AIMING FOR 53 TO 57 EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND 55 TO 60 TO THE WEST. TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER WARM AND PLEASANT DAY AS SOUTHEAST WINDS GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER TO BE CONCERNED ABOUT SO FULL POTENTIAL ON WARMING EXPECTED. WENT CLOSEST TO THE WMODEL OUTPUT ALONG WITH THE NAM12 AND GEM WHICH SEEM TO BE DOING THE BEST AT THIS TIME FRAME. WHILE MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY MIXING WILL BE MARGINALLY LIMITED BY THE EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND...SO SHOULD BE 80 TO 85 EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND 85 TO 90 TO THE WEST. /08 QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THERMAL PROFILES SIMILAR TO MONDAY NIGHT...THOUGH WITH WINDS JUST A TOUCH HIGHER LOWS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER...A DEGREE OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF 60. ANOTHER WARM DAY ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE REGION SITUATED UNDER AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. CANNOT RULE OUT CONVECTION DEVELOPING ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN OUR WEST WITH INCREASING THETA E ADVECTION AND INSTABILITY OVER THAT AREA AS A WEAK MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE/SURFACE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH THE SYSTEM SO KEPT POPS ON THE LOW SIDE...IN ADDITION TO THE FACT THAT MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST ON LOCATION AND TIMING OF SHORTWAVE. HIGHS LOOK TO BE MAINLY LOWER TO MID 80S. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN ON THURSDAY...WITH CONVECTION AGAIN POSSIBLE IN OUR WEST WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE RESIDE...AND NAM/ECMWF WANTING TO BREAK OUT CONVECTION IN OUR FAR EAST AS A VORT LOBE SWINGS SOUTHWARD AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE NATION. AGAIN...CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES. WITH MORE CLOUDINESS ON THURSDAY HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY...IN THE LOWER 80S. A LITTLE STRONGER SHORTWAVE DROPS ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY ON FRIDAY BRINGING A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF CONVECTION...MORE SO IN OUR NORTH. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A WARMER DAY AS SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S. FARTHER INTO THE EXTENDED...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REESTABLISHES ITSELF FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A DRY PERIOD WITH VERY WARM TEMPERATURES. WITH 850 MB TEMPS AVERAGING AROUND 20 TO 26 DEGREES C HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR SATURDAY...AND THEN MAYBE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER ON SUNDAY WITH MORE CLOUDS. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF IN AGREEMENT ON BRINGING A BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AT THAT TIME AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TO FOLLOW. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$
FXUS63 KOAX 050414 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 1114 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 .AVIATION... 06Z TAFS FOR KOMA..KLNK...KOFK VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES SURFACE AND ALOFT. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012/ DISCUSSION... WV IMAGERY LOOP WAS SHOWING SYSTEM DIGGING DOWN THE WEST COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH SEVERAL PIECES OF ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE NEAR CNTRL CA GETTING EJECTED TO THE CNTRL GREAT BASIN. MEANWHILE IMAGERY WAS SHOWING A BUILDING RIDGE QUICKLY AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE ROCKIES WITH INCREASING HGT RISES SPREADING ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS. AT THE SFC...WEDGE OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WAS STRETCHING ALL THE WAY SOUTH TO TX/OK. GOING FCST IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE AND LATEST MODELS INDICATING LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED. LARGE SCALE FLOW OVER THE CONUS IS STILL PROGGED TO BECOME STAGNANT WITH A NARROW UPPER RIDGE FROM THE CNTRL STATES INTO CNTRL CANADA ANCHORED BY TWO LARGE STORM SYSTEMS OVER BOTH U.S. COASTAL REGIONS. INITIAL GULF MOISTURE SURGE WILL OCCUR UP ALONG THE WRN HIGH PLAINS THEN EVENTUALLY SPREAD EWD LATE THURSDAY WHEN FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO A MORE-OR-LESS WEST-TO-EAST ORIENTATION. AT THIS POINT THE NAM BECOMES THE OUTLIER TRYING TO SHOVE A COLD FRONT THRU THE DAKOTAS ON THURSDAY WHILE THE GFS/ECM/CMC SHOW WEAK AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE IN ERN WY WITH ASSOCIATED WARM SECTOR EXTENDING ALL THE WAY NORTH INTO CANADA. IT APPEARS THAT PCPN CHANCES WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL STILL BE DICTATED BY EVENTAL POSITION OF BDRY LYR MOISTURE CONVG ZONE...WHICH GENERALLY REMAIN ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CWA. FRIDAY THRU MONDAY...PCPN CHANCES INITALLY REVOLVING AROUND A LIFTING WARM FRONT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COLD FRONT SWEEPING SWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS EARLY MONDAY MORNING. ALSO...WITH GOOD MOISTURE RETURN ANTICIPATED...CONDITIONS SHOULD TURN RATHER HUMID HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. DEE && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ FOBERT
FXUS63 KLBF 050542 AAB AFDLBF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE 1242 AM CDT TUE JUN 5 2012 .UPDATE... .AVIATION... VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH THE UPCOMING TAF FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN WYOMING/COLORADO AND POTENTIALLY DRIFT ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PANHANDLE/SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. SHEAR PROFILES ARE WEAK...BUT MODERATE INSTABILITY WOULD ALLOW FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS...WITH DOWNBURST AND SMALL HAIL POTENTIAL. THE STORMS SHOULD BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN...THUS THE EASTWARD EXTENT OF STORM COVERAGE WILL REMAIN WEST OF A KOGA TO KIML TO KIEN LINE. NOTE THAT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CNTL U.S. IS COMING UNDER INCREASING SUBTROPICAL INFLUENCE. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INVADE THE RIDGE FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS AND THIS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR WEAKLY FOCUSED STORM DEVELOPMENT VIZ SCNTL SD THIS MORNING WHERE SHRA AND TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED ON SOME SORT OF WEAKLY FOCUS MECHANISM. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012/ AVIATION... FOR THE KVTN AND KLBF TERMINALS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH SOME SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDINESS DRIFTING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. CIGS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM 20000 TO 25000 FT AGL. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE LIGHT EAST SOUTHEAST AT UNDER 10 KTS TONIGHT...SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST AND INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 KTS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM LATER THIS EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. ATTM...ANY ACTIVITY WHICH DOES PUSH EAST OF THE PANHANDLE SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY AND NOT IMPACT EITHER THE KVTN OR KLBF TERMINALS. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012/ SYNOPSIS... H5 RIDGE INTO CENTRAL CANADA WITH CLOSED LOWS OFF EITHER COAST. DISCUSSION... UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD. THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG FRONT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE EAST INTO WESTERN FRINGES OF FORECAST AREA. HAVE INCLUDED SCHC POPS SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. TUESDAY SIMILAR WITH UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 THUNDERSTORMS ALONG SURFACE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS OF CO WY. THEY WILL PUSH A LITTLE FURTHER EAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT. UPPER TROUGH LIFTING NORTH OUT OF GREAT BASIN SENDING ENERGY THROUGH NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH CONVECTION AROUND BUT WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE MID TO UPPER 80S. MOISTURE IN PLACE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS UPPER LOW TO THE NORTHWEST WILL SEND ENERGY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES INCREASING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND MAINLY DRY RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AFTER THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING AND RAIN CHANCES DIMINISHING SOME. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM/EXTENDED...BROOKS AVIATION...CDC
FXUS65 KCYS 050449 AFDCYS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY 1049 PM MDT MON JUN 4 2012 .AVIATION...06Z TAFS VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BY TUESDAY MORNING...SOUTH WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS A DRY COLD FRONT APPROACHES WESTERN WYOMING. GUSTS TO 45 KTS POSSIBLE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AND THE FRONT DRAWS CLOSER. CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE CONCENTRATED ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. CLAYCOMB && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 922 PM MDT MON JUN 4 2012/ UPDATE...SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE THUS WILL REMOVE THEM FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO TEMPERATURES...DEWPOINTS...WINDS AND CLOUD COVER THE REST OF THE NIGHT. FORECAST UPDATED. RUBIN PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM MDT MON JUN 4 2012/ SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT... CONVECTION BEING CONFINED TO MAINLY CARBON AND ALBANY COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT THIS PATTERN TO PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING WITH ACTIVITY MOVING NORTH AROUND UPPER RIDGE AXIS NOW OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING. SIMILAR SETUP FOR TUESDAY WITH WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUING. RATHER WINDY DAY EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA AS SFC LOW DEEPENS OVER NRN WY/SRN MONTANA. WIDELY SCTD AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN...THIS TIME OVER THE PLAINS AS WELL AS UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS FARTHER EAST AND NEG TILTED UPPER TROF MOVES INTO THE PAC NW. THIS UPPER TROF WILL THEN LIFT NORTH WHILE SFC TROF/PACIFIC FRONT PASSES EAST ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDS. FRONT THEN LOOKS TO STALL SOMEWHERE OVER THE PLAINS INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO WITH UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND FRONT HELPING TO SET OFF SOMEWHAT MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE PLAINS. SOME DIFFERENCES ON WHERE CONVECTION WILL BE MOST CONCENTRATED AS NAM GIVING FRONT MORE PROGRESS THAN GFS. ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH WEDS NIGHT OVER THE PLAINS AND HOPEFULLY WILL BRING SOME MUCH NEEDED MOISTURE INTO THESE AREAS. LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...LONG RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. ALL MODELS GENERALLY SHOW DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER PUSHES EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN MID TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW AND A SURFACE TROUGH OR LOW PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. EXPECT AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND TSTORMS TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY...MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA AND EARLY IN THE DAY AS A DISTURBANCE ALOFT PUSHES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS DURING THE DAY. OTHERWISE...PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK TO BE RATHER LOW THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK. SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST DURING EACH DAY EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...BUT ANY POTENTIAL MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL EITHER NOT LAST LONG ENOUGH TO MAKE MUCH OF A DIFFERENCE OR WILL NOT HAVE ENOUGH DEPTH. THEREFORE...KEPT POP BETWEEN 5 TO 10 PERCENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND IN THE 80S AND 90S...AS 700MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE INTO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS THROUGH SATURDAY. THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S TO POSSIBLY NEAR 100 IN A FEW PLACES ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. MODELS SHOW A COOL FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. FIRE WEATHER...MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF CARBON COUNTY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS GUSTY WINDS AND LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES SHOULD OCCUR. FUEL CONDITIONS UPDATED THIS MORNING INDICATE FUELS STILL NOT READY IN THIS AREA WITH GREEN UP STILL GOING ON THUS WILL NOT ISSUE ANY HILITES. ELSEWHERE WINDS WILL BE GUSTY TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO PRESSURE FALLS OVER NORTHERN WYOMING AND SOUTHERN MONTANA BUT MIN HUMIDITIES EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO THIS EVENING OVER FAR WESTERN DISTRICTS THEN A BIT MORE COVERAGE TUESDAY AS UPPER RIDGE MOVES SLOWLY EAST. SFC FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS EARLY WEDS MORNING BRINGING A LITTLE COOLER TEMPERATURES AND BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND TSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE PLAINS AS WINDS COME AROUND TO A MORE UPSLOPE DIRECTION. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER...RE LONG TERM/AVIATION...TJT
FXUS63 KGLD 050537 AFDGLD AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS 1137 PM MDT MON JUN 4 2012 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 902 PM MDT MON JUN 4 2012 REMOVED PRECIP. CHANCES FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT AS THE ENVIRONMENT HAS STABILIZED BEHIND THE GUST FRONT. HAVE LEFT OUT A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG WHERE THE MAJORITY OF THE RAINFALL OCCURRED SINCE THE LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD HELP TO MIX OUT ANY FOG THAT MAY TRY TO FORM. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 201 PM MDT MON JUN 4 2012 WEAK UPPER FLOW AND RESULTING SHEAR UNDER THE RIDGE ALOFT WITH WARM DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND A LACK OF INHIBITION WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE REGION WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. EXPECT HIGH BASED SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF COLORADO...LAST THROUGH THE EVENING...AND THEN DIMINISH DURING THE LATE EVENING. PRIMARY ADJUSTMENT TO OVERNIGHT TUESDAY WAS TO BUMP LOW UP A FEW DEGREES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...AS WARM SOUTHEASTERLY NEAR-SURFACE FLOW PATTERN IS MAINTAINED. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 201 PM MDT MON JUN 4 2012 BLOCKY MID/UPPER FLOW REGIME WITH RIDGING IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND AT LEAST. A BROAD TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST RESULTING IN GENERALLY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW AND BRING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR PRECIP THROUGH FRIDAY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MEAGER...GENERALLY LESS THAN 25 KTS...THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. A MORE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND COULD PROVIDE A MORE ORGANIZED POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION. STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT IS CURRENTLY PROGGED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA SO NOT ANTICIPATING A WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER...FEEL COMFORTABLE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. RIDGING BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WHICH ALL RESULT IN TEMPS ONCE AGAIN REACHING THE MID 90S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. 04/12Z EC WOULD SUPPORT TEMPERATURES APPROACHING THE CENTURY MARK...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY. DID BUMP TEMPS A NOTCH OR TWO OVER GOING FORECAST BUT MAY NEED ADDITIONAL INCREASES IF TREND CONTINUES. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL KNOCK TEMPS BACK A FEW DEGREES. TEMPS MONDAY WILL BE COOLER YET WITH READINGS CLOSER TO CLIMO IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. WILL KEEP THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST DRY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1131 PM MDT MON JUN 4 2012 VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE 6Z TAFS. LIGHT WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. MID MORNING WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE...REACHING THEIR PEAK DURING THE MID AFTERNOON THEN DECLINE DURING THE EVENING. MEANWHILE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER EASTERN COLORADO AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO KANSAS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. KMCK SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. DUE TO THE SPARCE NATURE OF THE STORMS...WILL KEEP THEM OUT OF THE KGLD TAF FOR NOW. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JTL SHORT TERM...LOCKHART/FOLTZ LONG TERM...FOLTZ AVIATION...JTL
FXUS63 KGID 050532 AFDGID AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE 1232 AM CDT TUE JUN 5 2012 .AVIATION...06Z KGRI TAF...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KGRI FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAY SEE A FEW CLOUDS BETWEEN 5-10 KFT DURING THE DAY AS INDICATED BY MODELED CROSS SECTIONS AND WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY UP TO 10 KTS AFTER SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT FEATURES TO SPEAK OF THAT ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINAL THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1031 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012/ UPDATE...JUST SENT A VERY MINOR/COSMETIC UPDATE TO THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST...MAINLY TO INCREASE SKY COVER A LITTLE BIT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIN HIGH CIRRUS SPILLING INTO THE CWA FROM THE WEST FROM HIGH PLAINS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. EVEN SO...THIS CLOUD COVER SHOULD NOT BE OVERLY OPAQUE. ALSO PURGED ALL EVENING WORDING FROM ZONE FORECAST TEXT PRODUCT. MADE NO CHANGES WHATSOEVER TO OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS...WITH LOW-MID 60S STILL ON TRACK ALL AREAS. EXPANSIVE...HIGHLY AMPLIFIED MID/UPPER RIDGE PARKED OVER THE HEART OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS CERTAINLY MAKING THIS EARLY JUNE WEATHER ABOUT AS BENIGN AS POSSIBLE...AND KEPT OVERNIGHT POPS AT ZERO PERCENT CWA-WIDE. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012/ SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY. MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AS WELL AS MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH TROUGHING OVER THE EAST. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALSO NOTED OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC...SOME OF WHICH IS JUST NOW BEGINNING TO INFILTRATE EXTREME WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CONUS. TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS REMAINS VERY WEAK TODAY WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY RELEGATED TO OUR NORTH...WEST...AND EAST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS...WITH A MID LEVEL PLUME OF MOISTURE BEGINNING TO INFILTRATE THE EXTREME WEST AND NORTHWESTERN CONUS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS NOTED OVER OUR AREA. LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS OUR CWA REMAINS FROM THE NORTHEAST FOR THE MOST PART. AN OVERALL LACK IN KINEMATIC FORCING...MOSTLY DUE TO A STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...SHOULD PRESENT DRY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THE SURFACE RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA WILL PUSH TO THE EAST TONIGHT...ALLOWING LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS SHOULD YIELD TUESDAY MORNING LOWS SIMILAR TO THAT OF THIS MORNING...THUS LOW TO MID 60S ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST ACROSS THE CWA BY SUNRISE TUESDAY. LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW AND A RESULTANT SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD SHOULD PRESENT ~25-DEGREE TEMPERATURE RISES DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...THUS PROVIDING TUESDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL BE ASCERTAINING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST. EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN STILL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURES...BUT THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN LOWER LEVELS TO DECREASE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. THE MOST PROMINENT FEATURE FOR US WILL BE THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED...HOWEVER THIS RIDGE SHOULD TRANSLATE TO THE EAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY UNDERNEATH THE POWERFUL INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH WIDE AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS. ANY CONVECTION DEVELOPING ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE WELL WEST IN THE HIGH PLAINS NEAR A SURFACE BOUNDARY BEFORE HAVING THE CHANCE TO MAKE ITS WAY EAST. MOST IF NOT ALL MODELS ARE LEANING TOWARD THIS SOLUTION. FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...I WILL PROBABLY LEAN DRY FOR THIS PERIOD AS WELL AS THE BOUNDARY STALLS WELL TO THE NORTHWEST AND THE LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD SET UP JUST WEST OF THE CWA OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WITH THE BEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE REMAINING WEST AS WELL. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT THUNDERSTORMS COULD CREEP INTO THE WESTERN CWA...SO LEAVING SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THERE. THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT COULD GET A LITTLE TRICKY AS THE SREF ENSEMBLES INDICATE THAT THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SHOULD ADVANCE A BIT FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST BY AFTERNOON...STILL JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CWA WHILE THE NAM DRAGS THE BOUNDARY INTO THE CWA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. EVEN IF THE BOUNDARY IS NOT ENTIRELY IN THE CWA...BY THURSDAY EVENING...WE COULD GET STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG OUTFLOWS OF PARENT THUNDERSTORMS. BUT WITH THE LOW-SHEAR AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT...ONLY AN OCCASIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS ANTICIPATED FROM ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT MAY DEVELOP. ON THE FLIP SIDE...THE ECMWF AND GFS HOLD THIS BOUNDARY WELL TO THE WEST...EVEN BY THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...SO I AM NOT GOING TO GET CARRIED AWAY WITH VERY HIGH CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AT THIS POINT...ESPECIALLY WITH THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE. BY THE WEEKEND...EXTEND MODELS TRANSLATE THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...MAKING WAY FOR AN APPROACHING LONGWAVE TROUGH ENTERING THE NORTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. WITH UNCERTAINTY OF THE PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY THEREAFTER...LOW CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WOULD BE PRUDENT FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT AS WELL. THE LONG RANGE MODELS WASH OUT THIS BOUNDARY BY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...WITH PERHAPS SOME HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION WELL OUT TO THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS...BUT PROBABLY NOT MAKING IT FAR ENOUGH EAST TO PUT IN THE FORECAST. I PREFER THE ECMWF SOLUTION IN THE OUTER PERIODS AS THE GFS MAY BE A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE ABOUT PUSHING THE TROUGH TOO FAR EAST AS WELL AS HANGING BACK A CLOSED LOW OVER CALIFORNIA. THIS DOES NOT JIBE WITH GUIDANCE AVERAGES AS WELL AS THE ECMWF DOES WITH ITS FORECAST. BY SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...THE ECMWF DISPLAYS A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH THE LONGWAVE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND LONGWAVE TROUGH TO THE WEST...WITH A CLOSED LOW IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF SASKATCHEWAN. THIS WILL ALLOW THE NEXT BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCEMENT OF THE TROUGH TO BE IN THE PROXIMITY OF OUR CWA AT THE END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST AND WILL KEEP CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN AREAS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MOST OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY EAST...ON MONDAY. WITH THE RIDGE IN PLACE TOWARD THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST...TEMPERATURES SHOULD SOAR WELL INTO THE 80S TO AROUND 90. THERE COULD BE A SLIGHT COOL DOWN WITH SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUDINESS ON THURSDAY WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE BOUNDARY...BUT NOT A SITUATION WHERE A LOT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION IS GOING TO COOL US DOWN. WE WILL BE WELL AHEAD OF THE TROUGH INTO THE WEEKEND...SO THIS SHOULD MEAN MORE OF THE SAME FOR TEMPERATURES...BUT WITH PERHAPS MORE OF A SOUTH BREEZE. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ AVIATION...ROSSI UPDATE...PFANNKUCH SHORT TERM...BRYANT LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
FLUS43 KFSD 040936 HWOFSD HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD 426 AM CDT MON JUN 04 2012 SDZ038>040-050-052>071-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-098- IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-NEZ013-014-051200- AURORA-BEADLE-BON HOMME-BROOKINGS-BRULE-BUENA VISTA IA- CHARLES MIX-CHEROKEE IA-CLAY-CLAY IA-COTTONWOOD MN-DAKOTA NE- DAVISON-DICKINSON IA-DIXON NE-DOUGLAS-GREGORY-HANSON-HUTCHINSON- IDA IA-JACKSON MN-JERAULD-KINGSBURY-LAKE-LINCOLN-LINCOLN MN- LYON IA-LYON MN-MCCOOK-MINER-MINNEHAHA-MOODY-MURRAY MN-NOBLES MN- OBRIEN IA-OSCEOLA IA-PIPESTONE MN-PLYMOUTH IA-ROCK MN-SANBORN- SIOUX IA-TURNER-UNION-WOODBURY IA-YANKTON- 426 AM CDT MON JUN 04 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA... SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...NORTHWEST IOWA...AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT FLOODING... MINOR FLOODING ON THE LITTLE SIOUX RIVER FROM SPENCER TO NEAR LINN GROVE IS EXPECTED TO END BY EARLY THIS WEEK. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT. && FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SIOUXFALLS. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. $$
FLUS43 KOAX 042131 HWOOAX HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 431 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034- 042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-051145- MONONA-HARRISON-SHELBY-POTTAWATTAMIE-MILLS-MONTGOMERY-FREMONT- PAGE-KNOX-CEDAR-THURSTON-ANTELOPE-PIERCE-WAYNE-BOONE-MADISON- STANTON-CUMING-BURT-PLATTE-COLFAX-DODGE-WASHINGTON-BUTLER- SAUNDERS-DOUGLAS-SARPY-SEWARD-LANCASTER-CASS-OTOE-SALINE- JEFFERSON-GAGE-JOHNSON-NEMAHA-PAWNEE-RICHARDSON- 431 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST IOWA...WEST CENTRAL IOWA...EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS SEVERAL WEATHER DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TONIGHT OR TUESDAY. $$ FOBERT
FLUS43 KLBF 050315 HWOLBF HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE 1015 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-060315- SHERIDAN-EASTERN CHERRY-KEYA PAHA-BOYD-BROWN-ROCK-HOLT-GARDEN- GRANT-HOOKER-THOMAS-BLAINE-LOUP-GARFIELD-WHEELER-ARTHUR-MCPHERSON- LOGAN-CUSTER-DEUEL-KEITH-PERKINS-LINCOLN-CHASE-HAYES-FRONTIER- WESTERN CHERRY- 1015 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 /915 PM MDT MON JUN 4 2012/ THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...NEAR DAILY CHANCES OF ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE WORK WEEK. THE GREATEST THREAT OF STORMS WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA ON TUESDAY...GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 61...WHERE LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. STORM CHANCES INCREASE ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AS BETTER FORCING FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT ARRIVES LATE WEDNESDAY. AGAIN LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY ERRATIC WIND COULD POTENTIALLY ACCOMPANY ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS LATE THIS WEEK. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT. && THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER... HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATOLOGICAL INFORMATION...AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NORTHPLATTE $$ CLB
FLUS45 KCYS 050327 HWOCYS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY 928 PM MDT MON JUN 4 2012 NEZ002-003-019>021-054-055-095-096-WYZ101-102-107-108-117>119- 051100- DAWES-BOX BUTTE-SCOTTS BLUFF-BANNER-MORRILL-KIMBALL-CHEYENNE- NORTH SIOUX-SOUTH SIOUX-CONVERSE COUNTY LOWER ELEVATIONS- NIOBRARA COUNTY-EAST PLATTE COUNTY-GOSHEN COUNTY- SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE FOOTHILLS-CENTRAL LARAMIE COUNTY- EAST LARAMIE COUNTY- 928 PM MDT MON JUN 4 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST WYOMING. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT. && THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGIC...AND CLIMATE INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT... HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHEYENNE $$ WYZ103>106-109>116-051100- NORTH LARAMIE RANGE-FERRIS/SEMINOE/SHIRLEY MOUNTAINS- SHIRLEY BASIN-CENTRAL LARAMIE RANGE AND SOUTHWEST PLATTE COUNTY- CENTRAL CARBON COUNTY-NORTH SNOWY RANGE FOOTHILLS- SOUTHWEST CARBON COUNTY-SIERRA MADRE RANGE- UPPER NORTH PLATTE RIVER BASIN-SNOWY RANGE-LARAMIE VALLEY- SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE- 928 PM MDT MON JUN 4 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL WYOMING... SOUTH CENTRAL WYOMING AND SOUTHEAST WYOMING. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT. && THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGIC...AND CLIMATE INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT... HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHEYENNE $$ RUBIN
FLUS43 KGLD 050313 HWOGLD HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS 912 PM MDT MON JUN 4 2012 COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-051715- YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON- SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA- DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW- 912 PM MDT MON JUN 4 2012 /1012 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012/ THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TONIGHT. $$
FLUS43 KGID 042045 HWOGID HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE 345 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087- 051200- PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE- SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-DAWSON-BUFFALO-HALL-HAMILTON-YORK- GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN- WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER- 345 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THERE WILL BE VARYING CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...BUT THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT. && MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE: HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS (ALL LOWERCASE) $$ BRYANT/HEINLEIN
FXUS64 KTSA 050453 AFDTSA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK 1153 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 .AVIATION... CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM. LITTLE CHANGE TO EARLIER THINKING. SOME FOG POTENTIAL WILL EXIST ACROSS NE OKLAHOMA AND NW ARKANSAS TONIGHT AS A RESULT OF HEAVY RAINFALL ON LAST 24 HOURS AND LIGHT WINDS DURING THE NIGHT. IFR VISIBILITY POSSIBLE BTWN 10-14Z WITH FYV/XNA/BVO MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT BUT ANY INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS NOT LIKELY TO BE REALIZED UNTIL BETTER MIXING DEVELOPS MID MORNING. ASIDE FROM FOG...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 914 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012/ DISCUSSION... BACK DOOR FRONT NOW NEARING THE KS BORDER AS OF 9 PM AND WILL CONTINUE SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWERS DEVELOPED ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER SW MO...BUT ARE SHOWING A WEAKENING TREND WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...BUT CERTAINLY NOT ENOUGH OF A CHANCE TO CHANGE THE DRY FORECAST WE HAVE GOING. SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE VALLEYS UP NEAR BARTLESVILLE AND FAYETTEVILLE...BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE THICK ENOUGH FOR AN INCLUSION IN THE GRIDS. BOTTOM LINE...GOING FORECAST ON TRACK. LACY PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012/ AVIATION... CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM. SOME FOG POTENTIAL WILL EXIST ACROSS NE OKLAHOMA AND NW ARKANSAS TONIGHT AS A RESULT OF HEAVY RAINFALL ON LAST 24 HOURS AND LIGHT WINDS DURING THE NIGHT. IFR VISIBILITY POSSIBLE BTWN 10-14Z WITH FYV/XNA/BVO MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT BUT ANY INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS NOT LIKELY TO BE REALIZED UNTIL BETTER MIXING DEVELOPS MID MORNING. ASIDE FROM FOG...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012/ DISCUSSION... LARGE OVERNIGHT MCS HAS STABILIZED MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA PER AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WHILE THE RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED NEAR THE RED RIVER VALLEY. THE SYNOPTIC FRONTAL ZONE MARKED BY NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR IS CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS. GIVEN THE OVERTURNED AIRMASS IN PLACE THE LIKELIHOOD OF ADDITIONAL EVENING STORMS LOOKS MINIMAL. THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL MOVE INTO AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY. GUIDANCE HAS CONVERGED ON A MORE AGGRESSIVE SOUTH AND EVENTUAL WESTWARD PUSH OF THE FOLLOWING DRIER AIR. THIS WILL KEEP ONLY LOW PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...WITH WARM DAY AND COOL NIGHTS FOR NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. UPPER RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S. FOR MUCH OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD...THOUGH EXTENDED DATA CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WHILE THE BULK OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA...IT WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS NEARER JUNE NORMALS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO APPROACH THE AREA BY THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK WHICH WOULD BRING THE NEXT ORGANIZED CHANCE OF PRECIP TO THE AREA. && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...NONE. AR...NONE. && $$ AVIATION...14
FXUS64 KOUN 050429 AFDOUN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 1129 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 .AVIATION... MOST OF OK/W N TX WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT...BECOMING E/NE ABOUT 10 KT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES SW ACROSS THE REGION BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE S PART OF THE LARGE AREA OF TSRA OVER W TX IS LIKELY TO FORM INTO A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX...AND WILL ACT LIKE AN UPPER-LEVEL WAVE...POSSIBLY BRINGING TSRA INTO KSPS LATER TONIGHT...AND AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE TEMPO FOR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...BUT IT MAY BE ADDED BY ISSUANCE TIME IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES BY THEN. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 953 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012/ DISCUSSION... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THIS EVENING JUST TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE FA. ACTIVITY FOR THE MOST PART HAS BEEN DRIFTING SLOWLY WEST ALTHOUGH SRN PART OF THE STORM COMPLEX HAS BEGUN TO MOVE MORE SELY. SOME OF THE HI RES MODELS SHOW MCV DEVELOPING OUT WEST WITH SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOPING EASTWARD INTO SWRN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. CURRENT ORIENTATION OF THE POP GRID FITS THIS SCENARIO WELL SO WILL MAKE ONLY MINOR CHANGES. MADE SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO OVERNIGHT LOWS...OTRW NO OTHER SIG CHANGES. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012/ AVIATION... SCT TSRA MAY OCCUR VCNTY KSPS THIS EVENING. ISOLD TSRA ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE THIS EVENING. CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER DARK...UNLESS THE TSRA COMPLEXES OVER W TX/E NM/SE CO/SW KS CAUSE UNEXPECTED LOW-LEVEL LIFT OR UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT OVER OUR FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012/ DISCUSSION... SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS FAR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. SUBSIDENCE/STABILIZATION WEST OF ARKANSAS MCV IS EXPECTED TO KEEP STORM CHANCES VERY LOW TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. FLY IN THE OINTMENT THERE WILL BE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL MOVE IN TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. PREVIOUS FORECAST OF CHANCE POPS ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CWA...WITH LOWEST POPS ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA... WILL BE RETAINED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. LARGE SCALE PATTERN OF HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE WITH WEAKNESS/UPPER LOW "TRAPPED" HAS HISTORICALLY LEAD TO DAY TO DAY MCS ACTIVITY THAT THE MODELS WILL HAVE TROUBLE FORECASTING. THUS...THE RELATIVELY LOW POPS DAY TO DAY THROUGH THE WEEK WILL LIKELY BE ADJUSTED BASED ON LATE DAY OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE EVOLUTIONS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... OKLAHOMA CITY OK 90 70 89 67 / 20 10 20 20 HOBART OK 97 70 90 67 / 20 30 30 30 WICHITA FALLS TX 96 71 92 69 / 30 40 40 40 GAGE OK 92 66 87 62 / 20 20 20 20 PONCA CITY OK 90 69 87 63 / 20 10 20 10 DURANT OK 92 71 92 69 / 30 20 40 30 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$ 02/23/23
FXUS64 KAMA 050446 AAC AFDAMA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX 1146 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 .AVIATION... FOR THE 06Z TAFS...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN ONGOING ACROSS THE WESTERN TX/OK PANHANDLES THIS EVENING WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THIS CONVECTION. HIGH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND SLOW MOVEMENT OF THESE STORMS HAVE RESULTED IN HEAVY RAINFALL WHERE VISIBILITIES HAVE FALLEN TO MVFR AND IFR. GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ALL NIGHT SO HAVE INSERTED A TEMPO GROUP TO REFLECT A REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY AT KAMA/KDHT THROUGH 08-09Z. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...IT LOOKS LIKE ANY CONVECTION WILL STAY WEST OF THE KGUY TERMINAL ALTHOUGH THERE IS A POSSIBILITY STORMS CAN DEVELOP NEAR THE TERMINAL OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THIS HAPPENING IS LOW. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS ONCE AGAIN ON TUESDAY ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER LOW ON THE TIMING AND WHERE STORMS WILL DEVELOP. FOR NOW HAVE INSERTED VCTS AT ALL THREE TERMINALS AROUND 19-22Z. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1101 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012/ UPDATE... UPDATED GRIDS AND PUBLIC PRODUCTS TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. ANDRADE PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 704 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012/ AVIATION... FOR THE 00Z TAFS...LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST ON WHEN AND IF THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE TERMINALS OVER THE VALID TAF FORECAST PERIOD. THE PANHANDLES SIT UNDER AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WITH SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW MAINTAINING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. SEVERAL UPPER DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO TRIGGER SCATTERED STORMS...MAINLY NORTHWEST OF THE TERMINALS. ITS POSSIBLE FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING GIVEN THE WARM...MOIST...AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE ALTHOUGH WEAK FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP STORM DEVELOPMENT RATHER UNORGANIZED. HAVE INSERTED VCTS AT ALL THREE TERMINALS THIS EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS. POSSIBLE FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS TO DEVELOP TUESDAY BUT FOR NOW HAVE LEFT OUT MENTION OF THUNDER. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 5 TO 15 KTS. CLK PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012/ DISCUSSION... MAIN FOCUS IS ON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE SYNOPTIC PICTURE ACROSS THE CONUS FEATURED AN OMEGA BLOCK THIS AFTERNOON...CHARACTERIZED BY UPPER RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS AND UPPER LOWS OFF THE PAC NW COAST AND OVER THE NORTHEAST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED CONSIDERABLE MID AND UPPER- LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE RIDGE...WITH SOME SHORTWAVES ALSO EMBEDDED WITHIN THE RIDGE. ONE SUCH SHORTWAVE WAS OVER SOUTHEAST CO...AIDING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE WESTERN OK PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST TX PANHANDLE. ANOTHER ELONGATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS STRETCHED FROM AR WESTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN OK AND THE SOUTHEAST TX PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS INTO EAST CENTRAL NM. MAIN SURFACE FRONT WAS LOCATED SOUTH OF THE CWA...WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS EASTERN NM AND THE SOUTH PLAINS. A MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE PANHANDLES NORTH OF THIS FRONT WAS HELPING TO TRIGGER SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST NEAR THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE. THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS VERY WEAK UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE...RESULTING IN VERY WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND SLOW STORM MOTIONS. STORM MOTION WAS GENERALLY TO THE SOUTHWEST AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE. THE MOIST/WARM AIR MASS HAS LED TO AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH MLCAPES RANGING FROM 1500 J/KG IN THE WEST TO NEAR 3000 J/KG IN THE EASTERN CWA. ABSENCE OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS EVIDENT IN RADAR IMAGERY...WITH MULTICELL STRUCTURES DOMINATING. THIS WEAK SHEAR WILL HELP MINIMIZE THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER...BUT INSTABILITY IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING. ANY SUCH STORMS WILL BE VERY PULSE IN NATURE GIVEN THE LACK OF SHEAR. HAIL TO THE SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS AND WIND GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREATS. THERE WILL ALSO BE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND ASSOCIATED LOCALIZED FLOODING OWING TO SLOW STORM MOTIONS AND PRECIPITABLE WATERS IN THE INCH TO INCH AND A HALF RANGE. BEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. CONVECTION MAY HANG ON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT SHOULD DIMINISH WITH TIME AS LOW-LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW VEERS TO THE SOUTH/WEAKENS AND THE ATMOSPHERE GRADUALLY STABILIZES. OVERALL PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STAGNANT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BLOCKING PATTERN TO STAY IN PLACE AT LEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH DIRTY RIDGE REMAINING IN PLACE OVER THE PANHANDLES. COMBINATION OF MOIST LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW...MID/UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE RIDGE...SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE UPPER RIDGE...WEAK CAPPING...DAYTIME HEATING...AND REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL SUPPORT DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES EACH DAY COMING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN WEAK...KEEPING STORM ORGANIZATION AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER LOW. HOWEVER...LIKE TODAY...INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING WILL ALSO REMAIN A CONCERN DUE TO SLOW STORM MOVEMENT AND A MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE. THE ELONGATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE IS FORECAST TO CONSOLIDATE AND LIKELY HOVER SOMEWHERE OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE/SOUTH PLAINS/ROLLING PLAINS VICINITY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PROVIDING AN ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. CONFIDENCE IN ACTUAL LOCATION OF THIS FEATURE IS LOW GIVEN ITS POSITION BENEATH THE BROADER RIDGE AND ANTICIPATED CONVECTIVE INFLUENCES ON BOTH ITS STRENGTH AND POSITION. PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT LOOK TO DECREASE SOMEWHAT DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AS THE SHORTWAVE NEAR THE SOUTHERN CWA SHIFTS SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA AND THE UPPER RIDGE BECOMES A LITTLE MORE DOMINANT. HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL TAKE HOLD AS AN UPPER TROUGH PROPAGATES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...SHUNTING THE RIDGE EASTWARD. LEE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN UNDER THIS INCREASING CROSS-MOUNTAIN FLOW ALOFT...WITH A DRYLINE ALSO STARTING TO TAKE SHAPE SATURDAY AND TIGHTENING UP BY SUNDAY. THIS MAY PROVIDE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WARMING TEMPS ALOFT AND RESULTANT CAPPING MAY STUNT CONVECTIVE INITIATION. THUS HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST FOR THE TIME BEING. COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...BEFORE WARMING OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS. KB FIRE WEATHER... NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE WORK WEEK DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL...MORE RAIN CHANCES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS REMAINING ABOVE 30 PERCENT. RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS MAY FALL BELOW 20 PERCENT ACROSS THE WESTERN PANHANDLES THIS WEEKEND WHILE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE...HOWEVER RECENT PRECIPITATION SHOULD MITIGATE ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. KB && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. OK...NONE. && $$ 99/99
FXUS64 KSHV 050245 AFDSHV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA 945 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 .DISCUSSION... POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE RATHER LOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. SO POPS WERE LOWERED TO SLIGHT CHANCE UNTIL 06Z...AND THEN REMOVED COMPLETELY FROM THE 06Z-12Z TIME FRAME. TSTM COMPLEX ASSOCIATED WITH AN MCS CONTINUES TO MOVE FROM AR INTO MS...JUST NE OF THE CWA. A FEW ELEVATED RADAR ECHOES HAVE APPEARED FROM TIME TO TIME IN UNION COUNTY/UNION PARISH. HOWEVER...SUBSIDENCE ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE MCV AND A MORE EWD PROPAGATION OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD KEEP THINGS DRY BUT WENT AHEAD AND EXPANDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE AREA BECAUSE NEW DEVELOPMENT CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT. TWEAKED POP/QPF/WX GRIDS BASED ON THESE THOUGHTS AND UPDATED SKY GRIDS BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS. ALL OTHER GRIDS REMAIN INTACT. UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT. /09/ && .AVIATION... LOOKING LIKE CONVECTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH MCS ACROSS SE AR WILL MISS OUR EASTERN MOST TERMINAL LOCATIONS THIS EVENING. LOOKING TO OUR WEST...ISOLATED CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING UNDER THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WHERE INSTABILITY IS GREATEST. STEERING FLOW IS WEAK ACROSS N TX SO NOT REAL CONFIDENT IN THIS ACTIVITY APPROACHING OUR NE TX TERMINALS. FOR THIS REASON...HAVE LEFT OUT MENTION OF VCTS OVERNIGHT WITH AN AMENDMENT THE BEST WAY TO HANDLE ANY SURPRISES THIS EVENING. LOW LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER AS WELL OVERNIGHT...THUS NOT REAL CONFIDENT IN GETTING MVFR CEILINGS INTO THE TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY VARIABLE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THROUGHOUT THE DAY TUESDAY. /13/ && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012/ DISCUSSION... MESSY WX PATTERN CONTINUES...AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DIRTY RIDGE ALOFT AND LARGE-SCALE TROF TO THE NE. CONVECTION THAT WAS ONGOING ACROSS THE NRN SECTIONS OF THE REGION DISSIPATED...AND WE HAVE YET TO SEE ANY REDEVELOPMENT...DESPITE SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND 4500 J/KG CAPE. CONVECTION HAS REFIRED...HOWEVER...ACROSS CENTRAL AR IN ASSOCIATION WITH A CLEARLY DEFINED MCV. SFC BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW OVER THE NERN U.S. COAST GRADUALLY BACK-DOORING INTO THE REGION. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WEAK UPPER TROF FORECAST TO DEVELOP UNDER THE RIDGE ACROSS N TX BY MIDWEEK... FURTHER ADDING TO THE RAINFALL POTENTIAL. ANOTHER BACK DOOR PUSH OF COOLER/DRIER AIR BY THU WILL BRING A CANADIAN SFC HIGH SWD INTO THE MID MS/OH RIVER VALLEYS...FORCING THE BOUNDARY SWD. THIS SHOULD DRY MOST OF THE REGION OUT THROUGH SUNDAY. WITH THE INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR CLOUD COVER/RAINFALL AND THE PASSAGE OF TWO COLD FRONTS...COOLER NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ON TAP THIS FCST PD. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 72 91 71 89 71 / 20 30 30 30 20 MLU 71 90 69 88 68 / 20 30 30 30 20 DEQ 70 89 66 86 66 / 20 30 30 20 20 TXK 71 90 67 88 68 / 20 30 30 20 20 ELD 70 90 66 87 66 / 20 30 30 20 20 TYR 72 91 72 88 72 / 10 30 30 30 30 GGG 72 91 72 89 72 / 20 30 30 30 30 LFK 73 94 72 91 72 / 10 20 30 30 30 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...NONE. LA...NONE. OK...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$ 09/13
FLUS44 KTSA 042200 HWOTSA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK 500 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-051000- ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK- CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK- LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK- OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK- PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK- WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR- 500 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION NOT EXPECTED. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. TUESDAY...NO HAZARDS. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...NO HAZARDS. EXTENDED DISCUSSION... A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE TRAPPED BENEATH A CENTRAL STATES UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING LOW CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION. $$
FLUS44 KOUN 050348
HWOOUN
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1045 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012
OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-051100-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1045 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
.DAY ONE...OVERNIGHT...
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT ORGANIZED SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
DISCUSSION...
A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER WEST TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT
SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD INTO PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE STORMS DRIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD. MID AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL
REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK BUT INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR A
FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS. STRONG WIND GUSTS...HEAVY
RAINFALL...AND QUARTER SIZED HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS.
PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT TUESDAY JUN 5.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...70 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...20 PERCENT.
OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES THIS WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RATHER
LOW.
OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.
THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 5 AM
TUESDAY MORNING.
$$
FLUS44 KAMA 050409 AAA HWOAMA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX 1109 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-051100- CIMARRON-TEXAS-BEAVER-DALLAM-SHERMAN-HANSFORD-OCHILTREE-LIPSCOMB- HARTLEY-MOORE-HUTCHINSON-ROBERTS-HEMPHILL-OLDHAM-POTTER-CARSON- GRAY-WHEELER-DEAF SMITH-RANDALL-ARMSTRONG-DONLEY-COLLINGSWORTH- 1109 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES. ANY STORMS THAT FORM SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LEVELS AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST STORMS...WHICH MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING OR FLASH FLOODING. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WHILE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED...A FEW STORMS THAT DEVELOP MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE ON ANY OF THESE DAYS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. ALSO...HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING OR FLASH FLOODING. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. $$
FLUS44 KSHV 041632 HWOSHV HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA 1132 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-TXZ124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167- 051200- CADDO-BOSSIER-WEBSTER-CLAIBORNE-LINCOLN-UNION LA-DE SOTO- RED RIVER-BIENVILLE-JACKSON-OUACHITA-SABINE LA-NATCHITOCHES-WINN- GRANT-CALDWELL-LA SALLE-WOOD-UPSHUR-MARION-SMITH-GREGG-HARRISON- CHEROKEE-RUSK-PANOLA-NACOGDOCHES-SHELBY-ANGELINA-SAN AUGUSTINE- SABINE TX- 1132 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...EAST TEXAS AND NORTHEAST TEXAS. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT... ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...MAINLY ALONG THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR. HOWEVER...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. HOWEVER...NO ORGANIZED HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...AMATEUR RADIO OPERATORS...AND STORM SPOTTERS WILL NOT BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT. $$ ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-OKZ077-TXZ096-097-108>112-051200- SEVIER-HOWARD-LITTLE RIVER-HEMPSTEAD-NEVADA-MILLER-LAFAYETTE- COLUMBIA-UNION AR-MCCURTAIN-RED RIVER-BOWIE-FRANKLIN-TITUS-CAMP- MORRIS-CASS- 1132 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHEAST TEXAS. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP BY THIS AFTERNOON...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES TO OUR NORTHEAST...AND DAYTIME HEATING AND REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES INTERACT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN STRONGER STORMS. HOWEVER...ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD REMAIN VERY ISOLATED IN NATURE. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. HOWEVER...NO ORGANIZED HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...AMATEUR RADIO OPERATORS...AND STORM SPOTTERS IS NOT ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT. $$ 12
FXUS64 KFWD 050442 AAC AFDFWD AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 1142 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 .AVIATION... KACT MAY SEE MVFR CIGS /BKN020/ BETWEEN 11-14UTC. DO NOT EXPECT THE CIGS TO SPREAD INTO THE METROPLEX DUE TO WEAK FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. AS FOR CONVECTION...WEST TEXAS CONVECTION LOOKS THREATENING FOR THE METROPLEX SITES...BUT WEAK STEERING FLOW SHOULD LIMIT ITS EASTWARD MOVEMENT AND THUS WE DO NOT INCLUDE A MENTION OF STORMS FOR THE LATE NIGHT OR EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY OVERNIGHT. A WEAK UPPER LOW SHOULD BE LOCATED NEAR KCDS TUESDAY EVENING WITH AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. FEEL A PROB30 GROUP IS BEST ACROSS THE METROPLEX SITES FOR NOW...BUT CHANCES MAY BE INCREASED IN LATER FORECASTS. LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW OVERNIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR A WEST-NORTHWEST COMPONENT FOR A FEW HOURS TUESDAY MORNING WINDS. AFTERWARD...WINDS WILL GO EASTERLY ACROSS THE METROPLEX WHILE KACT STAYS SOUTHEASTERLY. ALL SPEEDS SHOULD BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. 75 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012/ OUTFLOW HAS STIFLED CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO PREVENT CONVECTIVE INITIATION WITHIN THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS WEST TEXAS WHERE AN EAST-WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIES BENEATH A WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE ALOFT. MARGINAL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THIS DIFFUSE BOUNDARY MAY ALLOW FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF FWD CWA. ALTHOUGH THERE IS LITTLE STEERING FLOW...THE CONVECTION MAY STILL MANAGE TO INVADE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA TONIGHT WHERE THERE IS CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY AVAILABLE. THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SIERRA MADRE HAS SPARKED SOME THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THIS FEATURE WILL BE OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE IN THE COMING DAYS. OF GREATER INTEREST WILL BE THE EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION IN THE PANHANDLE TONIGHT WHERE MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL FEED ONGOING CONVECTION...FURTHER ERODING THE RIDGE ALOFT. THIS WILL BE THE IMPETUS FOR THE MID-LEVEL LOW THAT WILL BE THE DRIVING FORCE FOR NORTH TEXAS WEATHER THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. ALTHOUGH UPPER RIDGING WILL PERSIST...THIS MID-LEVEL FEATURE BENEATH IT WILL PREVAIL. SUCH SUBTLE FEATURES ARE OFTEN POORLY RESOLVED BY SYNOPTIC-SCALE MODELS...AND SOLUTIONS ARE RARELY CONSISTENT. THIS TENDS TO REDUCE OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. ALTHOUGH TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF CONVECTION CANNOT BE PINPOINTED AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE THE DAYS WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE CWA...AND POPS HAVE BEEN ELEVATED TO 50 IN MANY AREAS. PW VALUES WILL BE INDICATIVE OF HEAVY RAIN...BUT WEAK 850MB FLOW WILL MINIMIZE THE PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY THROUGHOUT THE EVENT. WITH WEAK FLOW THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN...THERE WILL BE SOME CELLS THAT PRODUCE COPIOUS RAINFALL AMOUNTS BECAUSE THEY WILL MOVE LITTLE. BUT WITHOUT SUFFICIENT ADVECTION...EVEN THESE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS ARE LIKELY TO BE SHORT-LIVED. THE PRIMARY FLOODING CONCERN WILL BE AS THE EVENT PROGRESSES...IF RAINFALL IS ABLE TO SUFFICIENTLY SATURATE SOILS. 25 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 74 93 73 88 73 / 20 20 40 40 50 WACO, TX 73 93 70 89 71 / 10 20 30 30 50 PARIS, TX 72 89 69 86 67 / 20 20 40 30 30 DENTON, TX 72 91 70 88 70 / 30 30 40 40 50 MCKINNEY, TX 72 90 70 86 70 / 20 20 40 30 50 DALLAS, TX 76 93 74 87 73 / 20 20 40 40 50 TERRELL, TX 73 91 71 87 71 / 20 20 40 30 50 CORSICANA, TX 73 90 72 87 72 / 10 20 40 30 50 TEMPLE, TX 72 90 70 88 71 / 10 20 30 30 50 MINERAL WELLS, TX 71 89 68 86 69 / 30 30 50 50 50 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 75/
FXUS64 KSHV 050245 AFDSHV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA 945 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 .DISCUSSION... POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE RATHER LOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. SO POPS WERE LOWERED TO SLIGHT CHANCE UNTIL 06Z...AND THEN REMOVED COMPLETELY FROM THE 06Z-12Z TIME FRAME. TSTM COMPLEX ASSOCIATED WITH AN MCS CONTINUES TO MOVE FROM AR INTO MS...JUST NE OF THE CWA. A FEW ELEVATED RADAR ECHOES HAVE APPEARED FROM TIME TO TIME IN UNION COUNTY/UNION PARISH. HOWEVER...SUBSIDENCE ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE MCV AND A MORE EWD PROPAGATION OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD KEEP THINGS DRY BUT WENT AHEAD AND EXPANDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE AREA BECAUSE NEW DEVELOPMENT CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT. TWEAKED POP/QPF/WX GRIDS BASED ON THESE THOUGHTS AND UPDATED SKY GRIDS BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS. ALL OTHER GRIDS REMAIN INTACT. UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT. /09/ && .AVIATION... LOOKING LIKE CONVECTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH MCS ACROSS SE AR WILL MISS OUR EASTERN MOST TERMINAL LOCATIONS THIS EVENING. LOOKING TO OUR WEST...ISOLATED CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING UNDER THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WHERE INSTABILITY IS GREATEST. STEERING FLOW IS WEAK ACROSS N TX SO NOT REAL CONFIDENT IN THIS ACTIVITY APPROACHING OUR NE TX TERMINALS. FOR THIS REASON...HAVE LEFT OUT MENTION OF VCTS OVERNIGHT WITH AN AMENDMENT THE BEST WAY TO HANDLE ANY SURPRISES THIS EVENING. LOW LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER AS WELL OVERNIGHT...THUS NOT REAL CONFIDENT IN GETTING MVFR CEILINGS INTO THE TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY VARIABLE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THROUGHOUT THE DAY TUESDAY. /13/ && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012/ DISCUSSION... MESSY WX PATTERN CONTINUES...AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DIRTY RIDGE ALOFT AND LARGE-SCALE TROF TO THE NE. CONVECTION THAT WAS ONGOING ACROSS THE NRN SECTIONS OF THE REGION DISSIPATED...AND WE HAVE YET TO SEE ANY REDEVELOPMENT...DESPITE SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND 4500 J/KG CAPE. CONVECTION HAS REFIRED...HOWEVER...ACROSS CENTRAL AR IN ASSOCIATION WITH A CLEARLY DEFINED MCV. SFC BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW OVER THE NERN U.S. COAST GRADUALLY BACK-DOORING INTO THE REGION. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WEAK UPPER TROF FORECAST TO DEVELOP UNDER THE RIDGE ACROSS N TX BY MIDWEEK... FURTHER ADDING TO THE RAINFALL POTENTIAL. ANOTHER BACK DOOR PUSH OF COOLER/DRIER AIR BY THU WILL BRING A CANADIAN SFC HIGH SWD INTO THE MID MS/OH RIVER VALLEYS...FORCING THE BOUNDARY SWD. THIS SHOULD DRY MOST OF THE REGION OUT THROUGH SUNDAY. WITH THE INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR CLOUD COVER/RAINFALL AND THE PASSAGE OF TWO COLD FRONTS...COOLER NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ON TAP THIS FCST PD. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 72 91 71 89 71 / 20 30 30 30 20 MLU 71 90 69 88 68 / 20 30 30 30 20 DEQ 70 89 66 86 66 / 20 30 30 20 20 TXK 71 90 67 88 68 / 20 30 30 20 20 ELD 70 90 66 87 66 / 20 30 30 20 20 TYR 72 91 72 88 72 / 10 30 30 30 30 GGG 72 91 72 89 72 / 20 30 30 30 30 LFK 73 94 72 91 72 / 10 20 30 30 30 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...NONE. LA...NONE. OK...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$ 09/13
FXUS64 KOUN 050429 AFDOUN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 1129 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 .AVIATION... MOST OF OK/W N TX WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT...BECOMING E/NE ABOUT 10 KT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES SW ACROSS THE REGION BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE S PART OF THE LARGE AREA OF TSRA OVER W TX IS LIKELY TO FORM INTO A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX...AND WILL ACT LIKE AN UPPER-LEVEL WAVE...POSSIBLY BRINGING TSRA INTO KSPS LATER TONIGHT...AND AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE TEMPO FOR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...BUT IT MAY BE ADDED BY ISSUANCE TIME IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES BY THEN. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 953 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012/ DISCUSSION... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THIS EVENING JUST TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE FA. ACTIVITY FOR THE MOST PART HAS BEEN DRIFTING SLOWLY WEST ALTHOUGH SRN PART OF THE STORM COMPLEX HAS BEGUN TO MOVE MORE SELY. SOME OF THE HI RES MODELS SHOW MCV DEVELOPING OUT WEST WITH SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOPING EASTWARD INTO SWRN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. CURRENT ORIENTATION OF THE POP GRID FITS THIS SCENARIO WELL SO WILL MAKE ONLY MINOR CHANGES. MADE SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO OVERNIGHT LOWS...OTRW NO OTHER SIG CHANGES. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012/ AVIATION... SCT TSRA MAY OCCUR VCNTY KSPS THIS EVENING. ISOLD TSRA ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE THIS EVENING. CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER DARK...UNLESS THE TSRA COMPLEXES OVER W TX/E NM/SE CO/SW KS CAUSE UNEXPECTED LOW-LEVEL LIFT OR UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT OVER OUR FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012/ DISCUSSION... SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS FAR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. SUBSIDENCE/STABILIZATION WEST OF ARKANSAS MCV IS EXPECTED TO KEEP STORM CHANCES VERY LOW TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. FLY IN THE OINTMENT THERE WILL BE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL MOVE IN TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. PREVIOUS FORECAST OF CHANCE POPS ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CWA...WITH LOWEST POPS ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA... WILL BE RETAINED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. LARGE SCALE PATTERN OF HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE WITH WEAKNESS/UPPER LOW "TRAPPED" HAS HISTORICALLY LEAD TO DAY TO DAY MCS ACTIVITY THAT THE MODELS WILL HAVE TROUBLE FORECASTING. THUS...THE RELATIVELY LOW POPS DAY TO DAY THROUGH THE WEEK WILL LIKELY BE ADJUSTED BASED ON LATE DAY OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE EVOLUTIONS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... OKLAHOMA CITY OK 90 70 89 67 / 20 10 20 20 HOBART OK 97 70 90 67 / 20 30 30 30 WICHITA FALLS TX 96 71 92 69 / 30 40 40 40 GAGE OK 92 66 87 62 / 20 20 20 20 PONCA CITY OK 90 69 87 63 / 20 10 20 10 DURANT OK 92 71 92 69 / 30 20 40 30 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$ 02/23/23
FXUS64 KEWX 050442 AFDEWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX 1142 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 .AVIATION... /06Z TAFS/ A LOW ALOFT TO THE SOUTH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...RIDGING ALOFT TO THE EAST...AND A LOW NORTH OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE SFC RIDGE EAST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...AND MAINTAIN A MODERATE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SFC ACROSS WEST TEXAS. EARLY JUNE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CHANGE TO MVFR CIGS FROM VCNTY OF KAUS TO KSAT AND KSSF AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. SCT TO BKN CLOUDS ABOVE 25 THSD FT WILL BECOMING CIGS OF 1 THSD TO 2 THSD BKN FROM KAUS TO KSAT AND KSSF AFTER 06Z. FURTHER WEST IN VCNTY OF KDRT 1 THSD TO 2 THSD SCT...WITH CIGS ABOVE 25 THSD FT IS EXPECTED AFTER 08Z. AFTER 15Z ON TUESDAY...CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME 4 THSD TO 6 THSD SCT WITH CIGS ABOVE 25 THSD FT. AFTER 20Z ON TUESDAY...ISOLATED SHRA AND TSRA COULD DEVELOP IN THE MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. AFTER 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT... CIGS OF 1 THSD TO 2 THSD BKN VCNTY KAUS TO KSAT...AND 5 THSD SCT WITH CIGS ABOVE 25 THSD FT VCNTY OF KDRT IS EXPECTED. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS AGAIN ON TUESDAY AFTER 14Z. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1113 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012/ UPDATE... REMOVED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR REST OF TONIGHT PERIOD ACROSS MAVERICK AND DIMMIT COUNTIES AS CONVECTION PUSHES AWAY AND SOUTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS LATE THIS EVENING. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 910 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012/ UPDATE... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF MAVERICK AND DIMMIT COUNTIES THIS EVENING. INCREASED POPS AND SHOWED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF MAVERICK AND DIMMIT COUNTIES. HOWEVER...REMOVED MENTIONING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE UPPER RIO GRANDE AREA FOR TONIGHT. ALSO...INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FOR THIS EVENING AS A LARGE GROUP OF MID/UPPER CLOUDS PUSHES SOUTHEASTWARD. MADE FEW ADJUSTMENTS ON OVERNIGHT LOWS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF MAVERICK AND DIMMIT COUNTIES. OTHERWISE...REST OF TONIGHT FORECAST PACKAGE IS ON TRACK FOR THE EXPECTED WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR LATE THIS EVENING AND TUESDAY. UPDATED ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT OUT SHORTLY. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012/ AVIATION... A NEARLY STATIONARY LOW ALOFT TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND RIDGING ALOFT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE SFC RIDGE EAST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...AND MAINTAIN A MODERATE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SFC ACROSS WEST TEXAS. EARLY JUNE SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z WILL CHANGE TO MVFR CIGS FROM VCNTY OF KAUS TO KSAT AND KSSF AFTER 06Z. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT... WITH SCT TO BKN CLOUDS ABOVE 25 THSD FT BECOMING CIGS ABOVE 25 THSD FT BKN. AFTER 06Z CIGS OF 1 THSD TO 2 THSD BKN ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM KAUS TO KSAT AND KSSF. FURTHER WEST IN VCNTY OF KDRT 3 THSD TO 5 THSD SCT...WITH CIGS ABOVE 25 THSD FT IS EXPECTED AFTER 08Z. AFTER 15Z ON TUESDAY...CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME 4 THSD TO 6 THSD SCT WITH CIGS ABOVE 25 THSD FT. FROM 19Z TO 01Z ON TUESDAY...ISOLATED SHRA AND TSRA COULD DEVELOP IN THE MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS TONIGHT AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS AGAIN ON TUESDAY AFTER 14Z. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012/ DISCUSSION... 12Z MODEL RUNS LOOKING DECISIVELY WETTER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. APPEARS THE UPPER LOW/WEAKNESS OVER NE MEXICO WILL LIFT SLOWLY ENEWD TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AND BRING ISOLATED TO SLIGHT CHANCES FOR CONVECTION ALONG THE RIO GRANDE THIS EVENING...AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING. MEANWHILE MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING AN UPPER LOW(POSSIBLY FROM AN MCV) OVER NW TX...AND DROPPING THE LOW SLOWLY SWD INTO S CENTRAL TX BY THE LATE WEEK. AN ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL ACCOMPANY THE LOW WITH A BRIEF E-NELY WIND SHIFT BY THU AFTERNOON. THIS SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW WILL GENERATE SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WED THRU AT LEAST FRI OR EVEN SAT. COOLER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AS WELL AND WITH TEMPS LIKELY NOT CLIMBING OUT OF THE 80S ALL BUT THE WEST AND SW. WITH THE UPPER LOW CENTERED IN THE NRN/NERN CWA BY THU EVENING...COULD SEE NOCTURNAL CONVECTION DEVELOP NEAR/UNDER THE UPPER LOW/FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THIS PATTERN AND MODELS ALREADY BEGINNING TO GENERATE SOME SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS. WILL UPDATE THE HWO TO REFLECT POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY QPF POTENTIAL FOR THE THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS EASTWARD LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH A RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THEREFORE DECREASING POPS FROM THE WEST SUNDAY WITH WARMER TEMPS RETURNING. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 91 75 93 75 93 / - 10 20 20 30 AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 92 73 93 73 93 / - 10 20 20 30 NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 92 73 92 72 92 / - 10 20 20 30 BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 90 73 92 73 92 / - 10 20 20 30 DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 94 75 95 75 93 / 10 10 20 20 20 GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 90 74 93 73 92 / - 10 20 20 30 HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 93 74 94 73 94 / 10 10 20 20 20 SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 91 73 92 73 92 / - 10 20 20 30 LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 93 72 92 73 91 / 10 10 20 20 30 SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 92 75 91 75 92 / - 10 20 20 20 STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 95 74 93 74 93 / - 10 20 20 20 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ MESOSCALE/AVIATION...08 SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17
FXUS64 KCRP 050435 AAC AFDCRP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 1135 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 .DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 6Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. && .AVIATION...MIX OF VFR/MVFR SKIES TONIGHT THRU TUE MRNG WITH A RETURN TO VFR TUE AFTN/EVE. ONGOING CONVECTION VCNTY KLRD SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH LOW CLOUD DECK DVLPING ACROSS ALL OF S TX. CIGS XPCTD TO LOWER TO MVFR /POSSIBLY BRIEF HIGH END IFR/ LEVELS WITH MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE KVCT/KALI. CIGS TO SLOWLY INCREASE TUES MRNG WITH VFR TO PREVAIL ALL TERMINALS TUE AFTN. ISO CONVECTION POSSIBLE IN THE MRNG AT KCRP/KVCT AND ALL TERMINALS BY TUES AFTN/EVE...BUT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS ATTM. LIGHT SE WINDS TONIGHT TO BECOME SE AND MODERATE DURING THE DAY TUES. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 75 91 75 92 74 / 10 20 10 20 10 VICTORIA 75 93 73 95 73 / 10 20 20 20 10 LAREDO 77 101 77 102 76 / 20 10 10 20 20 ALICE 75 95 73 97 73 / 10 20 10 20 10 ROCKPORT 79 89 78 89 78 / 10 20 20 20 20 COTULLA 75 98 74 98 73 / 20 10 10 20 20 KINGSVILLE 75 94 76 95 74 / 10 20 10 20 10 NAVY CORPUS 79 90 77 90 77 / 10 20 20 20 20 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ AVIATION...HART/79
FXUS64 KHGX 050439 AFDHGX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 1139 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 .AVIATION... VFR LATE THIS EVENING. NO CHANGES IN REASONING FROM THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE. MODELS CONTINUE TO GO WITH BKN/OVC CEILINGS OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL STICK WITH MAINLY SCT CLOUDS. WOULD STILL NOT BE SURPRISED IF LOWER CLOUD DECKS DO DEVELOP WITH A FEW HOURS OF IFR CIGS AROUND DAYBREAK. ANYTHING THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD LIFT AND SCATTER OUT BY MID MORNING SIMILAR TO WHAT THE AREA SAW TODAY. EXPECTING GREATER CLOUD COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION. WILL SEE LESS WIND TOO. THE AREA WILL PROBABLY BE DEALING WITH SOME SHRA/TSRA BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN PERSISTING (AND INCREASING) THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND ON INTO THE WEEKEND. 42 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 939 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012/ DISCUSSION... SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR NEXT FEW DAYS AS AXIS OF SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GULF. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH TO NEAR CALM OVERNIGHT AND PICK UP TO 5 TO 10 MPH ON TUESDAY. TEMPS EXPECTED TO DROP IN TO MID 70S OVERNIGHT WITH MID 90S ON TAP FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK...THUS NO UPDATES NEEDED. JUST ISSUED A PNS TO PROMOTE THE 2012 READY OR NOT HURRICANE WORKSHOP ON SATURDAY JUNE 9TH...FROM 10 AM TO 3 PM AT THE GEORGE R BROWN CONVENTION CENTER IN HOUSTON. WE HOPE TO SEE YOU THERE! PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012/ DISCUSSION... THE WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL AND N TX THIS AFTERNOON. THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE SIMILAR IN LIFTING THE UPPER LOW THAT WAS JUST SOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THE MODELS THEN DIFFER SLIGHTLY WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE LOW AND WITH HOW FAR SOUTHWEST A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WORKS ITS WAY INTO SE TX. THE MAIN IDEA FROM THE MODELS IS THAT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. PW/S ON BOTH MODELS WERE SIMILAR TO THE MODEL OUTPUT FROM 24 HOURS AGO...WITH VALUES FORECASTED BETWEEN 1.8 AND 2 INCHES. WEAK STEERING CURRENTS ALOFT ARE EXPECTED AND MAY LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...BUT WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL CONFINED TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NOW. THE MODELS SLOWED DOWN THE MOVEMENT OF THE WEAKNESS ALOFT AND SLOWLY MOVE IT TOWARD THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK. EVEN IF THE UPPER TROUGH DOES MOVE EAST EARLIER...A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL THEN SET UP. MARINE... LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COAST LATE THIS WEEKEND BRINGING MORE EASTERLY OR NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TO THE COAST. IN ADDITION TO THIS FRONT...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO FEATURES WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS BEGINNING MID WEEK AND PERSISTING INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. 38 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 75 93 73 93 73 / 10 20 20 40 30 HOUSTON (IAH) 74 94 74 92 73 / 10 20 20 40 20 GALVESTON (GLS) 80 88 78 86 78 / 10 20 20 40 20 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...44 AVIATION/MARINE...42
FXUS64 KAMA 050446 AAC AFDAMA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX 1146 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 .AVIATION... FOR THE 06Z TAFS...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN ONGOING ACROSS THE WESTERN TX/OK PANHANDLES THIS EVENING WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THIS CONVECTION. HIGH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND SLOW MOVEMENT OF THESE STORMS HAVE RESULTED IN HEAVY RAINFALL WHERE VISIBILITIES HAVE FALLEN TO MVFR AND IFR. GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ALL NIGHT SO HAVE INSERTED A TEMPO GROUP TO REFLECT A REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY AT KAMA/KDHT THROUGH 08-09Z. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...IT LOOKS LIKE ANY CONVECTION WILL STAY WEST OF THE KGUY TERMINAL ALTHOUGH THERE IS A POSSIBILITY STORMS CAN DEVELOP NEAR THE TERMINAL OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THIS HAPPENING IS LOW. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS ONCE AGAIN ON TUESDAY ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER LOW ON THE TIMING AND WHERE STORMS WILL DEVELOP. FOR NOW HAVE INSERTED VCTS AT ALL THREE TERMINALS AROUND 19-22Z. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1101 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012/ UPDATE... UPDATED GRIDS AND PUBLIC PRODUCTS TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. ANDRADE PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 704 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012/ AVIATION... FOR THE 00Z TAFS...LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST ON WHEN AND IF THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE TERMINALS OVER THE VALID TAF FORECAST PERIOD. THE PANHANDLES SIT UNDER AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WITH SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW MAINTAINING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. SEVERAL UPPER DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO TRIGGER SCATTERED STORMS...MAINLY NORTHWEST OF THE TERMINALS. ITS POSSIBLE FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING GIVEN THE WARM...MOIST...AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE ALTHOUGH WEAK FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP STORM DEVELOPMENT RATHER UNORGANIZED. HAVE INSERTED VCTS AT ALL THREE TERMINALS THIS EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS. POSSIBLE FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS TO DEVELOP TUESDAY BUT FOR NOW HAVE LEFT OUT MENTION OF THUNDER. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 5 TO 15 KTS. CLK PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012/ DISCUSSION... MAIN FOCUS IS ON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE SYNOPTIC PICTURE ACROSS THE CONUS FEATURED AN OMEGA BLOCK THIS AFTERNOON...CHARACTERIZED BY UPPER RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS AND UPPER LOWS OFF THE PAC NW COAST AND OVER THE NORTHEAST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED CONSIDERABLE MID AND UPPER- LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE RIDGE...WITH SOME SHORTWAVES ALSO EMBEDDED WITHIN THE RIDGE. ONE SUCH SHORTWAVE WAS OVER SOUTHEAST CO...AIDING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE WESTERN OK PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST TX PANHANDLE. ANOTHER ELONGATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS STRETCHED FROM AR WESTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN OK AND THE SOUTHEAST TX PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS INTO EAST CENTRAL NM. MAIN SURFACE FRONT WAS LOCATED SOUTH OF THE CWA...WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS EASTERN NM AND THE SOUTH PLAINS. A MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE PANHANDLES NORTH OF THIS FRONT WAS HELPING TO TRIGGER SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST NEAR THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE. THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS VERY WEAK UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE...RESULTING IN VERY WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND SLOW STORM MOTIONS. STORM MOTION WAS GENERALLY TO THE SOUTHWEST AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE. THE MOIST/WARM AIR MASS HAS LED TO AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH MLCAPES RANGING FROM 1500 J/KG IN THE WEST TO NEAR 3000 J/KG IN THE EASTERN CWA. ABSENCE OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS EVIDENT IN RADAR IMAGERY...WITH MULTICELL STRUCTURES DOMINATING. THIS WEAK SHEAR WILL HELP MINIMIZE THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER...BUT INSTABILITY IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING. ANY SUCH STORMS WILL BE VERY PULSE IN NATURE GIVEN THE LACK OF SHEAR. HAIL TO THE SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS AND WIND GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREATS. THERE WILL ALSO BE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND ASSOCIATED LOCALIZED FLOODING OWING TO SLOW STORM MOTIONS AND PRECIPITABLE WATERS IN THE INCH TO INCH AND A HALF RANGE. BEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. CONVECTION MAY HANG ON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT SHOULD DIMINISH WITH TIME AS LOW-LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW VEERS TO THE SOUTH/WEAKENS AND THE ATMOSPHERE GRADUALLY STABILIZES. OVERALL PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STAGNANT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BLOCKING PATTERN TO STAY IN PLACE AT LEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH DIRTY RIDGE REMAINING IN PLACE OVER THE PANHANDLES. COMBINATION OF MOIST LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW...MID/UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE RIDGE...SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE UPPER RIDGE...WEAK CAPPING...DAYTIME HEATING...AND REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL SUPPORT DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES EACH DAY COMING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN WEAK...KEEPING STORM ORGANIZATION AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER LOW. HOWEVER...LIKE TODAY...INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING WILL ALSO REMAIN A CONCERN DUE TO SLOW STORM MOVEMENT AND A MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE. THE ELONGATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE IS FORECAST TO CONSOLIDATE AND LIKELY HOVER SOMEWHERE OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE/SOUTH PLAINS/ROLLING PLAINS VICINITY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PROVIDING AN ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. CONFIDENCE IN ACTUAL LOCATION OF THIS FEATURE IS LOW GIVEN ITS POSITION BENEATH THE BROADER RIDGE AND ANTICIPATED CONVECTIVE INFLUENCES ON BOTH ITS STRENGTH AND POSITION. PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT LOOK TO DECREASE SOMEWHAT DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AS THE SHORTWAVE NEAR THE SOUTHERN CWA SHIFTS SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA AND THE UPPER RIDGE BECOMES A LITTLE MORE DOMINANT. HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL TAKE HOLD AS AN UPPER TROUGH PROPAGATES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...SHUNTING THE RIDGE EASTWARD. LEE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN UNDER THIS INCREASING CROSS-MOUNTAIN FLOW ALOFT...WITH A DRYLINE ALSO STARTING TO TAKE SHAPE SATURDAY AND TIGHTENING UP BY SUNDAY. THIS MAY PROVIDE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WARMING TEMPS ALOFT AND RESULTANT CAPPING MAY STUNT CONVECTIVE INITIATION. THUS HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST FOR THE TIME BEING. COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...BEFORE WARMING OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS. KB FIRE WEATHER... NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE WORK WEEK DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL...MORE RAIN CHANCES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS REMAINING ABOVE 30 PERCENT. RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS MAY FALL BELOW 20 PERCENT ACROSS THE WESTERN PANHANDLES THIS WEEKEND WHILE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE...HOWEVER RECENT PRECIPITATION SHOULD MITIGATE ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. KB && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. OK...NONE. && $$ 99/99
FXUS64 KLUB 050548 AFDLUB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX 1248 AM CDT TUE JUN 5 2012 .AVIATION... TSTMS CONTINUE OVER THE REGION. EXPECT STORMS TO GRADUALLY END AT KLBB BY 06-07Z...WITH ACTIVITY BUILDING INTO THE KCDS TERMINAL. CONSIDERABLE LIGHTNING WITH THE ACTIVITY OFF THE CAPROCK...AND STILL A SLIGHT THREAT OF 50 KNOT WIND GUSTS FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO. CEILINGS LIKELY TO DROP BELOW 5K FT AT KCDS WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS LATER TODAY AT BOTH TAF SITES...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE MAY BE LESS THAN MONDAY. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX/ AVIATION... THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN FOR THIS TAF CYCLE. ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OF THE TWO TAF SITES...KLBB EXPECTED TO SEE THE GREATER IMPACTS AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE/LONGEVITY THIS EVENING. WILL CARRY A TEMPO GROUP THROUGH 03Z AT KLBB WITH VCTS MENTIONED THROUGH 07Z. MVFR TO IFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR THE THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO RAIN AS WELL AS BLDU WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF THE RAIN. COULD EVEN SEE LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS BEYOND 07Z...BUT CHANCES SHOULD BE DIMINISHING BY THIS TIME. MOST LIKELY TIMEFRAME FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS AT KCDS WILL BE THROUGH 03Z. MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT KCDS AS WELL IN THE STORMS. ASIDE FROM THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE AND LOCATION TOO UNCERTAIN TO MENTION ATTM. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012/ SHORT TERM... AFTERNOON PROGRESSING ABOUT AS EXPECTED. TSRA HAS NOW FIRED NW OF ROSWELL EWD TOWARD MORTON. STILL EXPECT STORMS TO DEVELOP EWD ALONG A LOW LEVEL TROUGH...LESS INDICATED BY A WIND DISCONTINUITY NOW THAT THE OVERALL FLOW HAS BACKED TO THE EAST...BUT STILL EVIDENT IN THE PRESSURE FIELD AS EXTENDING ROUGHLY FROM MORTON TO PLAINVIEW. ALSO SEEING SCATTERED SHRA AND TSRA ACROSS NERN INTO SERN COLO. FORMER AREA SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY OR DEVELOP SLOWLY TO THE SE ACROSS THE SRN ZONES THROUGH THE EVENING WHILE THE LATTER AREA MENTIONED IS EXPECTED TO BUILD SOUTHWARD AND SHIFT SLOWLY EWD WITH TIME. LACK OF DECENT SHEAR OR FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A LACK OF ORGANIZATION INTO MORE THAN MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS AND AS SUCH WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY. WIDESPREAD SVR THREAT STILL LOOKS SMALL WITH PULSE TYPE SVR OWING TO HEALTHY CAPE AND WEAK SHEAR. RAIN CHANCE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH PROXIMITY OF MID-UPPER TROUGH. THAT TROUGH AND COOL TEMPS ALOFT WILL HELP PROMPT ADDITIONAL TSRA TUESDAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTN HOURS. HARD TO SEE MUCH FOCUS FOR STORMS ALTHOUGH WILL SEE THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH THAT SLIPPED INTO THE AREA TODAY BEGIN TO LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH DURING THE AFTN. CHANCE POPS CONTINUE TO BE JUSTIFIED. CAPE VALUES LIKELY TO BE LESS THAN TODAY WITH FCST TEMPS A GOOD FIVE TO TEN DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. LONG TERM... LOCATION OF BEST LIFT AND PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN LOWER THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE INTO THE EXTENDED. MODELS IN GENERAL OVERALL AGREEMENT ON UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING AS SHORTWV ENERGY IS CUT OFF UNDERNEATH HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDING OVER NORTH CENTRAL U.S. TUE THROUGH WED TIME FRAME. NAM IS FASTER ON DROPPING UPPER LOW SOUTH INTO WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTH TX. GFS AND 00Z ECMWF ARE SLOWER IN DRIFTING THE CUTOFF LOW SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH TX BY THU. MODELS ALSO HAVING TROUBLE DEALING WITH LOW LEVEL FEATURES AS SFC TROUGH WHICH HAS BEEN A FOCUS IN SHORT TERM REMAINS IN THE GENERAL AREA ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS THROUGH MID WEEK. EXPECT SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TO CONTINUE WITH THIS PATTERN HOLDING MOISTURE IN PLACE BENEATH UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVING EAST WITH TIME. HAVE THEREFORE KEPT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CHANCE POPS GOING THROUGH WED WITH AREA CLOSEST TO THE UPPER LOW MOST FAVORED. WITH TIME DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO WRAP INTO THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WHICH SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL RAIN CHANCES BY LATE WEEK. AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS REESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO INTO WESTERN NM NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL FAVOR SOME ACTIVITY WORKING SOUTHEAST FROM HIGHER TERRAIN AS LONG AS AXIS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE...AT LEAST INTO THU. DRYLINE BEGINS TO REESTABLISH ITSELF FRI ACROSS ERN NM AS SW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS AHEAD OF BROAD TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. ALTHOUGH POPS BEYOND FRI ARE BELOW 15% SOME ISOLD DRYLINE CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES INTO THU WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...UPSLOPE FLOW AND CLOUD COVER IN PLACE. READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL ON FRI AND GAIN SEVERAL MORE DEGREES OVER THE WEEKEND POSSIBLY BACK TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW BRINGING MUCH WARMER H8 AIR INTO THE REGION. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... FRIONA 82 58 83 60 82 / 30 30 20 20 20 TULIA 82 59 82 60 81 / 30 30 30 20 20 PLAINVIEW 84 61 82 62 81 / 30 30 30 20 20 LEVELLAND 87 62 84 64 84 / 30 40 20 20 20 LUBBOCK 86 64 84 65 83 / 40 40 30 20 20 DENVER CITY 86 63 89 66 88 / 30 40 20 20 20 BROWNFIELD 88 64 85 66 85 / 30 40 20 20 20 CHILDRESS 89 64 84 65 84 / 30 30 40 30 20 SPUR 86 65 83 65 84 / 40 30 30 30 20 ASPERMONT 88 65 86 68 86 / 40 40 40 30 20 && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 06/99/06
FXUS64 KSJT 050442 AFDSJT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX 1142 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 .AVIATION... /06Z UPDATE/ VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEGRADE TO MVFR OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES AROUND DAYBREAK...LIFTING TO VFR BY 15Z. CURRENT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MOVING INTO THE BIG COUNTRY IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY 07Z THIS MORNING...HAVE INCLUDED VCTS FOR KABI FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP TOMORROW AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...HAVE INCLUDED A PROB30 FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS FOR THIS EVENING. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... ABILENE 97 71 86 69 87 / 20 50 30 40 30 SAN ANGELO 95 73 89 69 89 / 20 20 20 30 30 JUNCTION 94 72 92 70 90 / 10 10 10 30 30 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 15
FXUS64 KMAF 050521 AFDMAF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX 1221 AM CDT TUE JUN 5 2012 .DISCUSSION... SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. && .AVIATION... PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN AREA OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE TERMIANLS AND DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. A LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE AREA AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE WEST TEXAS AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO TERMINALS BY EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE A PROB30 GROUP FOR MVFR VISIBILITIES IN THUNDERSTORMS AT THE TERMINALS BEGINNING AT 16Z TUESDAY THROUGH TUEDAY EVENING. && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$ 12
FXUS64 KEPZ 042020 AFDEPZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM 220 PM MDT MON JUN 4 2012 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL SIT OVER THE AREA THE REST OF THIS WEEK...MAINTAINING HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS MOST AREAS. LARGE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES TO THE EAST WILL SEND SURGES OF MOISTURE WESTWARD EACH NIGHT THAT WILL LINGER LONG ENOUGH INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS TO FUEL ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN HUDSPETH COUNTY. BY SATURDAY...DEEPENING SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD KEEP THE ENTIRE AREA HOT AND DRY. TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL BE FROM 5 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...MEANING NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE CENTURY MARK IN THE LOWLANDS. && .DISCUSSION... A RIDGE ALOFT WILL BE OVER NEW MEXICO TODAY...THEN TEMPORARILY NUDGED EASTWARD BY A PACIFIC TROUGH SWINGING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TUE AND WED. THE RIDGE THEN RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER NEW MEXICO BY FRIDAY AND REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NORMALLY THIS WOULD MEAN HOT AND DRY WEATHER..AND FOR THE MOST PART THAT IS WHAT WE WILL HAVE. HOWEVER...A FEATURE TO WATCH WILL BE ENERGY FROM A SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPPING DOWN THE FRONT OF THE RIDGE TODAY INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE MODELS TAKE THIS ENERGY AND FORM A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE HEART OF TEXAS. THE PACIFIC TROUGH ALONG WITH ANOTHER THAT FOLLOWS ON THE WEEKEND SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH SOUTHWEST FLOW TO KEEP THIS LOW TO OUR EAST. THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES FORMING UNDER AND NEAR THE LOW WILL LIKELY SEND SURGES OF MOISTURE WESTWARD EACH EVENING BEHIND A DRYLINE THAT WILL PROBABLY MAKE IT TO THE RIO GRANDE EACH MORNING. THE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE SHALLOW AND MIX OUT BEFORE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED...EXCEPT FOR EASTERN PORTIONS OF OTERO AND HUDSPETH COUNTIES...AND PERHAPS NORTHERN SIERRA COUNTY. ISOLATED POPS HAVE BEEN RETAINED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE FAR EASTERN SECTION. IT APPEARS THE SECOND PACIFIC TROUGH WILL PROVIDE DEEPER SOUTHWEST FLOW BEGINNING FRIDAY AND CERTAINLY OVER THE WEEKEND...KEEPING EVEN THE EASTERN PORTION DRY. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL GRACE THE WEEKEND AS WELL. REGARDING THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD...MODEL PROJECTED TEMPS ARE NOT AS HOT AS ONE WOULD EXPECT UNDER A RIDGE IN JUNE...BUT NEAR OR SLIGHTLY OVER 100 IN THE LOWLANDS IS STILL HOT. && .AVIATION...VALID 05/00Z-06/00Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY HIGH CIRRUS AND CIRROSTRATUS MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA OVER THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS WILL STAY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE EAST OVERNIGHT WILL RESULT IN WIDELY SCATTERED TSRA AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS...ALONG THE OTERO MESA... AND INTO HUDSPETH COUNTY TEXAS. A FEW STORMS MAY MOVE INTO LOWER ELEVATIONS AND PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLE DRY MICROBURSTS. && .FIRE WEATHER... A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW MEXICO WILL SHIFT INTO THE GREAT PLAINS AND WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEASTERN NM AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE OVER THE NEXT FEW AFTER- NOONS AND EVENINGS WILL PUSH MOIST OUTFLOW WESTWARD...AS FAR AS THE RIO GRANDE BY TOMORROW AND SUBSEQUENT MORNINGS. BY AFTERNOON THE MOISTURE WILL MIX OUT SUCH THAT THE BEST CHANCES FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS...OTERO MESA...AND HUDSPETH COUNTY TUE THROUGH THU. THERE IS ALSO AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS FAR WEST AS THE SAN ANDRES MOUNTAINS DOWN TOWARDS PARTS OF EL PASO COUNTY. MEANWHILE...WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE. THESE CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE PERSISTENT THROUGH THE COMING WEEK. $$ .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... EL PASO 69 99 68 100 70 / 0 0 0 0 0 SIERRA BLANCA 64 91 63 90 65 / 0 10 10 10 10 LAS CRUCES 62 95 60 96 62 / 0 0 0 0 0 ALAMOGORDO 65 95 64 95 66 / 0 0 0 0 0 CLOUDCROFT 49 75 49 75 51 / 10 20 10 10 10 TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 65 92 65 94 66 / 0 0 0 0 0 SILVER CITY 61 87 61 87 62 / 0 0 0 0 0 DEMING 64 97 62 97 62 / 0 0 0 0 0 LORDSBURG 63 95 63 95 64 / 0 0 0 0 0 WEST EL PASO METRO 73 96 70 98 72 / 0 0 0 0 0 DELL CITY 58 88 58 89 60 / 10 10 10 10 10 FORT HANCOCK 66 99 65 98 67 / 0 10 10 0 0 LOMA LINDA 61 91 60 92 62 / 0 0 0 0 0 FABENS 67 98 65 99 67 / 0 0 0 0 0 SANTA TERESA 66 97 64 98 66 / 0 0 0 0 0 WHITE SANDS HQ 73 93 68 95 70 / 0 0 0 0 0 JORNADA RANGE 58 93 54 95 56 / 0 0 0 0 0 HATCH 62 94 59 94 61 / 0 0 0 0 0 COLUMBUS 63 95 61 98 63 / 0 0 0 0 0 OROGRANDE 70 97 67 98 69 / 0 0 0 0 0 MAYHILL 52 79 52 81 54 / 10 20 10 10 10 MESCALERO 49 80 49 79 51 / 10 20 10 10 10 TIMBERON 51 82 50 83 52 / 10 20 10 10 10 WINSTON 53 87 53 86 54 / 0 0 0 0 0 HILLSBORO 61 90 61 89 62 / 0 0 0 0 0 SPACEPORT 65 92 64 90 66 / 0 0 0 0 0 LAKE ROBERTS 51 89 50 90 51 / 0 0 0 0 0 HURLEY 55 89 57 89 58 / 0 0 0 0 0 CLIFF 48 96 48 97 49 / 0 0 0 0 0 MULE CREEK 43 91 44 93 46 / 0 0 0 0 0 FAYWOOD 57 88 57 88 58 / 0 0 0 0 0 ANIMAS 60 92 60 94 61 / 0 0 0 0 0 HACHITA 59 95 59 95 60 / 0 0 0 0 0 ANTELOPE WELLS 62 95 63 94 64 / 0 0 0 0 0 CLOVERDALE 59 88 58 88 59 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$ 01 FAUSETT/25 HARDIMAN
FXUS64 KLCH 050507 AFDLCH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA 1207 AM CDT TUE JUN 5 2012 .DISCUSSION... FOR THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE. && .AVIATION... VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL...WITH TEMPO MVFR CARRIED AT KAEX AND KLCH FOR SLIGHT VSBY RESTRICTIONS DURING THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS. DID INSERT VCTS STARTING AT 18Z FOR KAEX...AND 21Z AT THE SOUTHERN STIES...WITH MIXED SIGNALS IN LATEST MODEL DATA REGARDING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 13 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 816 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012/ DISCUSSION... SFC HIGH CONTINUES TO RIDGE OVER E GULF...CONTINUING THE S TO SW WINDS OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING. EVENING LCH SOUNDING SHOWS PRECIP H2O OF 1.47"...MOSTLY FROM THE S FLOW BRINGING THE 1000-850MB MARINE LAYER OVER THE REGION. SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...WINDS CONTINUE NEAR 10 MPH THIS EVENING...EXPECTING TO DIMINISH SOME OVERNIGHT...BUT LIKELY REMAIN NEAR 5 MPH FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 80S THIS EVENING WILL FALL ANOTHER 8-10 DEGREES TOWARDS MORNING TO THE LOWER/MID 70S. CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK WITH THIS...THUS NO UPDATES NEEDED. DML PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 719 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012/ DISCUSSION... FOR THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE. AVIATION... VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING AND INTO TOMORROW...WITH THE ONLY POTENTIAL BLIP BEING MVFR CIGS/VSBYS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. PREVIOUS FCST CARRIED A TEMPO AT KAEX...AND THIS STILL LOOKS GOOD BASED ON A BLEND OF LATEST GUIDANCE/PERSISTENCE. WILL HAVE TO LOOK AT INCLUDING AT LEAST VICINITY CONVECTION TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH THE NEXT FORECAST CYCLE...BUT FOR NOW WILL STAY THE COURSE WITH PREVAILING VFR AMID FEW-SCT CU AND GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH WINDS. 13 PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012/ DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF RIDGES WESTWARD INTO CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND CU HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. TO THE NORTH...A WEAK COOL FRONT IS DRAPED OVER OVER OK/AR THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS LOOKS TO BE OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER. TONIGHT WILL SEE TEMPS FALLING BACK INTO THE LOWER 70S MOST LOCATIONS A BIT WARMER ALONG THE COAST BY SUNRISE. EARLY MRNG FOG WILL BURN-OFF AFTER SUNRISE. HIGH OVER THE SE GULF RETREATS BACK TO THE EAST AS THE FRONT SLIDES SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH TMRW AFTN. CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE DAY AND THIS WILL HOLD TEMPS BACK A DEGREE OR TWO. ISOLATED SHOWERS TMRW AFTN/EVE TIME FRAME AS GULF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO POOL AND THE COMBINATION OF THE SEA BREEZE...MOISTURE... AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT. ON WEDNESDAY THE FRONT GETS A BIT CLOSER AND MOISTURE MOVING UP FROM THE YUCATAN WILL PUSH INTO SE TX AND SRN LA. THE FRONT OVER AR IS EXPECTED TO STALL ALONG THE COAST BEFORE FALLING APART ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR STORMS DRG THE AFTERNOON HRS. AFTN TEMPS WILL FALL A BIT MORE. THIS PATTERN OF SHOWERS AND CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. SHOWERS WILL BACK OFF A BIT BUT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... KLCH 72 90 73 89 72 / 20 40 20 40 20 KBPT 74 89 73 89 73 / 20 40 20 40 20 KAEX 71 90 69 90 67 / 20 40 20 40 20 KLFT 72 90 72 89 72 / 20 40 20 40 20 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...NONE. TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$
FXUS64 KBRO 042338 AAA AFDBRO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX 638 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 .DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. && .AVIATION...SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGES INDICATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA EARLY THIS EVENING. CEILINGS WERE NEAR 6500FT AT KAPY. A WEAK 500MB LOW ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO AND THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MEXICAN PLATEAU TONIGHT. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA TONIGHT EXCEPT WHERE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS PROVIDE BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 151 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012/ SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN ZONES TONIGHT AND A LOW CHANCE OF SOME SEA BREEZE SHOWERS TUESDAY. CONVECTION BEGINNING TO FIRE OVER THE SIERRA MADRE EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE HEATING THE SURFACE. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST FEW NIGHTS A FEW OF THESE COULD DRIFT OFF THE MOUNTAINS WORKING THEIR WAY ACROSS THE RIVER LATE TONIGHT AFFECTING MAINLY STARR AND ZAPATA. THE WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH MAY STILL HAVE SOME INFLUENCE ON THE VALLEY/S WEATHER TUESDAY AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR AT LEAST A WEAK SEA BREEZE. THE LIMITING FACTOR IS THE AMOUNT AND DEPTH OF MOISTURE. MODEST PWAT VALUES OF 1.6 INCHES AND A SHRINKING DRY MID LAYER MAY BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT THE 20 PERCENT THAT IS ALL READY MENTIONED. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURE FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED WITH MODEL GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT BUT WITH VERIFICATION VALUES SHOWING OBSERVED CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN WARMER WILL TREND JUST ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR TUESDAY HIGHS. GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A SLIGHT LOWERING OF OVERNIGHT LOWS DUE TO LIGHTER SOUTHEAST WINDS SO WILL TREND IN THIS DIRECTION. LONG TERM.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A LEFT OVER PIECE OF ENERGY DEVELOPS A WEAK CLOSED LOW OVER TEXAS WEDNESDAY. 12Z NAM AND GFS BUFR SOUNDING SHOW A GRADUAL INCREASE IN PWATS VALUES THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS MOISTURE OVER THE GULF WILL GRADUALLY SURGE INTO THE CWA AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES BRINGING A BREAK TO THIS DRY WEATHER. THIS LOW WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE VALLEY. THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF MODELS TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WITH 12Z NAM BEING THE WEAKEST. DUE TO THE POSITION OF THE LOW WHICH IS BETWEEN THE TWO TROUGH ACROSS THE WEST AND EAST OF THE CONUS AND UNDER A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL EXPECT THIS LOW TO SLOWLY IMPACT THE CWA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT MOISTURE INTO THE VALLEY WHICH WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND REDUCE HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW 90S. INHERITED TEMPERATURES WERE LEFT THE SAME. INTO THE WEEKEND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE SIERRA MADRE OVER MEXICO AND WINDS ALOFT BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY INCREASING BETWEEN 25 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTING UP TO 25 MPH. MOISTURE PLUME MIGRATES NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS NEXT WEEK. MARINE...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF TO MAINTAIN A STEADY STATE WIND AND SEA REGIME THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. LIGHT TO MODERATE ON SHORE WINDS AND A SLIGHT SEA CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND AGAIN TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... GIVEN THE PROLONGED OFFSHORE FETCH SEAS WILL INCREASE UP TO 4 FEET WEDNESDAY FROM THE EAST. SOUTHEAST FLOW BEGINS AS THE APPROACH OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE OVER CENTRAL TEXAS THURSDAY SHIFTING BACK EASTERLY DURING THE DAY WITH THE SLOWLY PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE VALLEY. A STRONG MOISTURE PLUME FROM THE GULF WILL INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MARINE ZONES DETERIORATING MARINE CONDITIONS RAPIDLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM REMAINS ALMOST STATIONARY DURING THE WEEKEND KEEPING A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA FINALLY EXITING MONDAY. && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT: HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV 61/66/VEGA
FLUS44 KFWD 042037 HWOFWD HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 337 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-051145- MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN- HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS- ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL- JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO- FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE- LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON- 337 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT NORTHWEST OF A COMANCHE TO DALLAS TO BONHAM LINE. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS AND URBAN AREAS. AN ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS NOT EXPECTED. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. $$
FLUS44 KSHV 041632 HWOSHV HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA 1132 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-TXZ124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167- 051200- CADDO-BOSSIER-WEBSTER-CLAIBORNE-LINCOLN-UNION LA-DE SOTO- RED RIVER-BIENVILLE-JACKSON-OUACHITA-SABINE LA-NATCHITOCHES-WINN- GRANT-CALDWELL-LA SALLE-WOOD-UPSHUR-MARION-SMITH-GREGG-HARRISON- CHEROKEE-RUSK-PANOLA-NACOGDOCHES-SHELBY-ANGELINA-SAN AUGUSTINE- SABINE TX- 1132 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...EAST TEXAS AND NORTHEAST TEXAS. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT... ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...MAINLY ALONG THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR. HOWEVER...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. HOWEVER...NO ORGANIZED HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...AMATEUR RADIO OPERATORS...AND STORM SPOTTERS WILL NOT BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT. $$ ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-OKZ077-TXZ096-097-108>112-051200- SEVIER-HOWARD-LITTLE RIVER-HEMPSTEAD-NEVADA-MILLER-LAFAYETTE- COLUMBIA-UNION AR-MCCURTAIN-RED RIVER-BOWIE-FRANKLIN-TITUS-CAMP- MORRIS-CASS- 1132 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHEAST TEXAS. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP BY THIS AFTERNOON...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES TO OUR NORTHEAST...AND DAYTIME HEATING AND REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES INTERACT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN STRONGER STORMS. HOWEVER...ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD REMAIN VERY ISOLATED IN NATURE. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. HOWEVER...NO ORGANIZED HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...AMATEUR RADIO OPERATORS...AND STORM SPOTTERS IS NOT ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT. $$ 12
FLUS44 KOUN 050348
HWOOUN
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1045 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012
OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-051100-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1045 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
.DAY ONE...OVERNIGHT...
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT ORGANIZED SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
DISCUSSION...
A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER WEST TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT
SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD INTO PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE STORMS DRIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD. MID AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL
REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK BUT INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR A
FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS. STRONG WIND GUSTS...HEAVY
RAINFALL...AND QUARTER SIZED HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS.
PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT TUESDAY JUN 5.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...70 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...20 PERCENT.
OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES THIS WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RATHER
LOW.
OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.
THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 5 AM
TUESDAY MORNING.
$$
FLUS44 KEWX 042015 HWOEWX HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX 315 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-051200- LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA- GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE- MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA- FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT- 315 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT... NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN NORTHWEST TEXAS WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL TEXAS THURSDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY...BRINGING A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE REGION. THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL INTERACT WITH DEEPENING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION AND RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED. $$
FLUS44 KCRP 042329 AAA HWOCRP HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 629 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 TXZ229-239-052330- LA SALLE-WEBB- 629 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEBB AND LA SALLE COUNTIES. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WEBB AND LA SALLE COUNTIES THIS EVENING. ANY STORMS THAT OCCUR MAY BRIEFLY BECOME STRONG WITH SMALL HAIL...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING POSSIBLE. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK HAVING THE GREATEST CHANCES. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THE STORMS THIS WEEK. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. $$ GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-TXZ230>234-240>247-052330- BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS- BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O'CONNOR- COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-MCMULLEN-LIVE OAK-BEE-GOLIAD-VICTORIA-DUVAL-JIM WELLS- KLEBERG-NUECES-SAN PATRICIO-ARANSAS-REFUGIO-CALHOUN- 629 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS AND THE MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK HAVING THE GREATEST CHANCES. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THE STORMS THIS WEEK AS TROPICAL MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. $$
FLUS44 KHGX 042045 HWOHGX HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 345 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375-TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226- 227-235>238-051315- AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND- GALVESTON-GALVESTON BAY-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY- MADISON-MATAGORDA-MATAGORDA BAY-MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO- TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON- WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM-WHARTON- 345 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY A COMBINATION OF A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE AND VERY MOIST GULF AIR FLOWING INTO THE REGION WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE DOWN INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS ON THURSDAY AND MAY ACT AS A FOCUS FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL INTO SATURDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. $$
FLUS44 KAMA 050409 AAA HWOAMA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX 1109 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-051100- CIMARRON-TEXAS-BEAVER-DALLAM-SHERMAN-HANSFORD-OCHILTREE-LIPSCOMB- HARTLEY-MOORE-HUTCHINSON-ROBERTS-HEMPHILL-OLDHAM-POTTER-CARSON- GRAY-WHEELER-DEAF SMITH-RANDALL-ARMSTRONG-DONLEY-COLLINGSWORTH- 1109 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES. ANY STORMS THAT FORM SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LEVELS AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST STORMS...WHICH MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING OR FLASH FLOODING. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WHILE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED...A FEW STORMS THAT DEVELOP MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE ON ANY OF THESE DAYS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. ALSO...HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING OR FLASH FLOODING. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. $$
FLUS44 KLUB 041630 HWOLUB HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX 1130 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 TXZ021>044-051630- PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE- FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING- YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL- 1130 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT CONVECTIVE THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF THE OUTLOOK AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DAYTIME HEATING WILL COMBINE WITH ADEQUATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...INITIALLY ALONG A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE OUTLOOK AREA INTO THE EVENING HOURS. A FEW OF THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE...WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 65 MPH AND HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. $$ JW
FLUS44 KSJT 041949 HWOSJT HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX 249 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139- 140-154-155-168>170-052000- FISHER-NOLAN-STERLING-COKE-RUNNELS-IRION-TOM GREEN-CONCHO- CROCKETT-SCHLEICHER-SUTTON-HASKELL-THROCKMORTON-JONES-SHACKELFORD- TAYLOR-CALLAHAN-COLEMAN-BROWN-MCCULLOCH-SAN SABA-MENARD-KIMBLE- MASON- 249 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. A FEW STORMS MAY BE SEVERE ALONG AND NORTH OF A MERTZON TO SAN ANGELO TO BROWNWOOD LINE. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY ACROSS MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE DEADLY LIGHTNING AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION MIGHT BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. $$
FLUS44 KMAF 042003 HWOMAF HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX 303 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075- 079>082-258-052015- GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS- NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES- DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL- VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS- LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN- DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU- BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS- 303 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 /203 PM MDT MON JUN 4 2012/ THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL RESULT IN LIKELY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE PECOS RIVER. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE UPPER COLORADO VALLEY. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY FREQUENT LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...AND BRIEF...HEAVY RAINFALL. A FEW STORMS MAY BE SEVERE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS AND PERMIAN BASIN...AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL IN EXCESS OF AN INCH IN DIAMETER... LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS OF 60 MPH OR MORE...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PERMIAN BASIN AND PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS THAT COULD RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN AND WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS. $$ THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES... AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/ HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND 44
FLUS44 KEPZ 041705 HWOEPZ HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM 1105 AM MDT MON JUN 4 2012 NMZ401>417-TXZ418>424-051715- UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY-SOUTHERN GILA HIGHLANDS/BLACK RANGE- SOUTHERN GILA FOOTHILLS/MIMBRES VALLEY- SOUTHWEST DESERT/LOWER GILA RIVER VALLEY-LOWLANDS OF THE BOOTHEEL- UPLANDS OF THE BOOTHEEL-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN- EASTERN BLACK RANGE FOOTHILLS-SIERRA COUNTY LAKES- NORTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY-SOUTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY/MESILLA VALLEY- CENTRAL TULAROSA BASIN-SOUTHERN TULAROSA BASIN- WEST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET- SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7500 FEET- EAST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET-OTERO MESA- WESTERN EL PASO COUNTY-EASTERN/CENTRAL EL PASO COUNTY- NORTHERN HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS/HUECO MOUNTAINS-SALT BASIN- SOUTHERN HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS- RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN EL PASO/WESTERN HUDSPETH COUNTIES- RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN HUDSPETH COUNTY- 1105 AM MDT MON JUN 4 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NM AND TX. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE HOT AND DRY. HOWEVER...JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT FROM THE SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS DOWN TO EASTERN HUDSPETH COUNTY FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. LITTLE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH ANY STORMS...BUT THEY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALIZED BLOWING DUST. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF OTERO AND HUDSPETH COUNTIES THROUGH FRIDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE WEEKEND. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. $$
FLUS44 KLCH 040947 HWOLCH HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA 447 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-073-074-TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262- 051000- VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY- CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN- VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-WEST CAMERON- EAST CAMERON-TYLER-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-NORTHERN JASPER- NORTHERN NEWTON-SOUTHERN JASPER-SOUTHERN NEWTON- 447 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY RAIN CHANCES BEGINNING AROUND WEDNESDAY AS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT STALLS NEAR THE COAST. PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED. $$ GMZ430-432-435-450-452-455-470-472-475-051000- SABINE LAKE-CALCASIEU LAKE-VERMILION BAY- COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM- 447 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM STALLS NEAR THE COAST. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED. $$ SWEENEY
FLUS44 KBRO 050014 AAA HWOBRO HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX 714 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 TXZ251-253>257-051000- KENEDY-HIDALGO-INLAND WILLACY-INLAND CAMERON-COASTAL WILLACY- COASTAL CAMERON- 714 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED. $$ GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175-051000- LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE PORT OF BROWNSVILLE TO THE ARROYO COLORADO- LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE ARROYO COLORADO TO 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TX- LAGUNA MADRE FROM 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TX- COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE EXTENDING FROM 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD EXTENDING FROM 20 TO 60 NM- 714 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE LAGUNA MADRE. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED. $$ TXZ248>250-252-051000- ZAPATA-JIM HOGG-BROOKS-STARR- 714 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR 40 MPH...AND SMALL HAIL AS WELL AS FREQUENT LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED. $$ CASTILLO